Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.
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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Big shindig starts at Davos next week
“The return of war, epidemics and the climate crisis, all those disruptive forces have derailed the global recovery,” Schwab, the forum’s executive chairman, told journalists in an almost biblical prognostication ahead of the convention’s start on Sunday. “Those issues must be confronted in Davos, and the global food crisis in particular needs our immediate attention,” he added in an online briefing, according to the Irish Times.
“In a world which is becoming more fragmented, more divided, and where many of the traditional multilateral organisations tend to become dysfunctional, or at least mistrustful, a global platform based on informal, trust-faced and action-oriented co-operation will be ever more relevant, more important than before,” Schwab declared.
Scheduled to be there are heads of government including Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Ivory Coast Prime Minister Patrick Achi, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Colombia’s President Ivan Duque Marquez and Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame. John Kerry, U.S. special presidential envoy for climate, will be in Davos along with 17 environment ministers. Alok Sharma, president of Cop26, is also scheduled to participate. Forty-three finance ministers and 27 trade and commerce ministers will also attend. Kristalina Georgieva, IMF managing director, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde and director general of the World Trade Organisation Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala are also scheduled to be there.
Topics discussed and panels at the 2022 meeting will include:
- Experience the future of cooperation: The Global Collaboration Village
- Staying on Course for Nature Action
- Future-proofing Health Systems
- Accelerating the Reskilling Revolution (for the “green transition”)
- The ‘Net’ in Net Zero
- The Future of Globalization
- Unlocking Carbon Markets
List of American invitees -
Gina Raimondo Secretary of Commerce of USA USA
John F. Kerry Special Presidential Envoy for Climate of the United States of America
Bill Keating Congressman from Massachusetts (D)
Daniel Meuser Congressman from Pennsylvania (R)
Madeleine Dean Congresswoman from Pennsylvania (D
Ted Lieu Congressman from California (D)
Ann Wagner Congresswoman from Missouri (R)
Christopher A. Coons Senator from Delaware (D)
Darrell Issa Congressman from California (R)
Dean Phillips Congressman from Minnesota (D)
Debra Fischer Senator from Nebraska (R)
Eric Holcomb Governor of Indiana (R)
Gregory W. Meeks Congressman from New York (D)
John W. Hickenlooper Senator from Colorado (D)
Larry Hogan Governor of Maryland (R)
Michael McCaul Congressman from Texas (R)
Pat Toomey Senator from Pennsylvania (R)
Patrick J. Leahy Senator from Vermont (D)
Robert Menendez Senator from New Jersey (D)
Roger F. Wicker Senator from Mississippi (R)
Seth Moulton Congressman from Massachusetts (D)
Sheldon Whitehouse Senator from Rhode Island (D)
Ted Deutch Congressman from Florida (D)
Francis Suarez Mayor of Miami (R)
Al Gore Vice-President of the United States (1993-2001) (D)
OBSERVATION - I expect much of the ‘dirty work’ will be done behind closed doors, with the listed agenda being more like eyewash but will give insight to how the GGR crowd will attempt to leverage current crises into movement towards the one world government.
Also - pay close attention to the US delegation after Davos - they are the insider enemies folks that will work with their cohorts to push the US towards the GGR goals.
NOT TO BE OVERLOOKED - Mastercard is rolling out the controversial biometric payment systems, allowing users to pay with the wave of a hand or a smile at a camera. Mastercard will begin testing its biometric checkout systems in Brazil, at five St Marche stores in the city of Sao Paulo. Interested users can register their biometrics via an app or in a store through Mastercard’s partner Payface.
A spokesperson said that it will soon roll out the biometric checkout system in the UK, and is also focusing on markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
OBSERVATION - This system has the potential to be used to collect and store data that can be used to monitor and track users - beyond the current system. Biometrics is a big item for the GGR.
SPECIAL NOTE - Musk has become a lightening rod this week and the latest sex harassment charges seem to follow the classical leftist smear tactics we’ve seen used time and again. But what he has been saying about the left and its progressive policies have been pretty red-pilled and his bleat on ESG spot on. -
Tesla CEO Elon Musk called out environmental, social and governance standards as woke nonsense and slammed one of the most prominent ESG ratings companies in the world.
Ratings giant S&P Global gave Tesla the boot and removed the electric car company from its ESG 500 Index, citing “racial discrimination” and “poor working conditions” in a May 17 blog post. The next day, Musk fired back at S&P’s blatant double standard with a barrage of tweets, attacking the credibility of both S&P and ESG standards in general.
“Exxon is rated top ten best in world for environment, social & governance (ESG) by S&P 500, while Tesla didn’t make the list! ESG is a scam. It has been weaponized by phony social justice warriors,” Musk said on Twitter, a “clear case of wacktivism.”
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. May have to replace this title with ‘monkeypox’ SMH
An advisory panel to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has voted to recommend COVID-19 vaccine booster jabs for children aged five to 11, at least five months after completing their primary vaccination course.
The committee on Thursday voted 11 to one in favor of recommending the boosters, with one doctor abstaining.
OBSERVATION - This in spite of the overwhelming evidence that the jab does more harm to this age group than the disease.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world. Global food shortage concerns sparking local unrest . Fed rate increases, combined with inflation data has roiled markets this week.
According to a report by ‘The Economist’, people who cannot be sure of getting enough to eat by 440m to 1.6bn, with nearly 250m on the brink of famine.
OBSERVATION - While this may not affect the US as it may the third world, it is not out of the question, case in point the infant formula ‘shortages’ crisis. The US doesn’t maintain the stockpiles of food it used to and a major climatic / natural event could severely derail this year’s already stressed crop production - with a corresponding explosion of inflation of all associated products.
In a Senate Interior Committee hearing yesterday to examine the Biden administrations’ fiscal year 2023 budget request for the Department of the Interior, Secretary Deborah Haaland refused to answer the question whether gas prices are too high. Senator Manchin challenged her on her department calling for the shutdown of new oil leases - once again - no answer.
OBSERVATION - Biden is doing all he can to cripple our oil and gas industry - deliberately - not from ineptness.
Sales of previously owned homes in April fell to the lowest pace since the Covid pandemic started, according to the National Association of Realtors. Tight supply kept home prices higher, despite rising interest rates. The median price of an existing home sold in April was $391,200, the highest on record and an increase of 14.8% from a year ago.
OBSERVATION - I expect to see convulsions in the housing market over the course of the summer and into fall as interest rates on loans make it increasingly impossible to afford these high prices and the market bubble starts to implode. This will all converge to harm families trying to flee the blue hellholes.
Electrical system operators are now warning that roughly 28 states at risk of experiencing blackouts this summer. Brown-outs and rolling blackouts will seriously impact businesses and factories - rippling across already damaged economics.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals starting the end of this month.
Some estimates are that the dropping of Title 42 could almost triple the flow of illegals into the country.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - Proabort protests have not gained traction after the USSC release of the draft decision reversing Roe v Wade. Antifa tag alongs to these protests have resulted in limited vandalism.
Far Left Activists are protesting the destruction of the Atlanta Forest in Dekalb County which will be the construction site of a planned police training facility. Antifa has called on activists from across the country to respond.
DHS is expecting more abortion related violence when the final decision on Roe v Wade is finally announced. Meanwhile my Congress rep nailed it - It’s been almost three weeks since a leaker disclosed a draft document from the Supreme Court pointing to a decision to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling on abortion, and Rep. Matt Rosendale told Newsmax on Thursday that at least some of the justices have to know the guilty party.
“We all could probably agree that the justices that were appointed by Democrat presidents know who the leaker was,” the Montana Republican said on Newsmax’s “Wake Up America.” “What bothers me, it’s not only the undermining that it did of the institution and the trust factor that these folks have with each other.”
A trio of senators plan to introduce legislation on Thursday that will require residents to acquire a Department of Justice (DOJ) license before purchasing or obtaining a legal firearm.
The bill would also raise the legal age for obtaining a firearm to 21 years old.
The bill was introduced by Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.).
It has virtually no chance of becoming law given GOP opposition, but gives a sense of the breadth of restrictions on gun access that some lawmakers would favor imposing in the wake of years of mass shootings in the nation.
According to the bill text, the Federal Firearm Licensing Act will require residents to complete a written firearm safety test and hands-on testing, which includes firing testing, to get the license to acquire a firearm. The license will also require those wanting to buy a gun to submit a criminal background check, fingerprints, and proof of identity.
OBSERVATION - this law won’t get anywhere under the current congress as the USSC has made it clear on other issues you cannot ‘license’ a right. But the left’s lawless attitude won’t stop it from trying either though legislation or executive orders. They view the imposition of those restrictions doable while the lawsuits work their way to the USSC so that by the time the justices rule on it, they have extracted a favorable degree of chaos and will then tweak the rejected law/regulations, forcing the lawsuit cycle to restart.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*
“Whoever would overthrow the liberty of a nation must begin by subduing the freedom of speech.”—Benjamin Franklin
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
Primary elections were held this past week in many states, results confirm that democrats are facing a preverbal beat down at the ballot box this fall.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.
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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW
Russia cyber actors still seem to be searching, developing possible targets even tho it hasn’t targeted US companies or infrastructure in a big way yet, per CISA “We do not know at what point a calculus may change”
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
DISCUSSION - Expanding lock downs threaten to tank what limited economic recovery China has had post wuhan and the rest of the globe are facing new supply shortages.
China and Russia are currently negotiating a significant oil deal that would be used to fill China’s strategic petroleum reserves. Although Western sanctions on Russia were meant to cripple its economy, Russian oil sales have risen dramatically as Russia is providing steep discounts for purchases made in Russian rubles. China is taking advantage of the low-cost Russian oil and slashing its other petroleum orders from countries like Venezuela and Iran.
OBSERVATION - China is playing the long game - and grabbing deals in the process. Some think China may ‘own’ Russia by the time the Ukraine war plays out.
China’s former foreign minister and current Director General of the Politburo’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission, Yang Jiechi, warned US national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Wednesday that the United States was “on the wrong path” regarding Taiwan and that its moves could lead to “dangerous situations.” The statement was made during a phone call between Yang and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Wednesday. (FO)
OBSERVATION - Another ‘warning’ from China. However, some are becoming concerned that China may be moving its game to the next level with Taiwan as the US increasingly becomes preoccupied with inflation, Ukraine and the midterms.
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India/China - BLUE trending stable *updated 04/15/22*
China in news improving its logistics infrastructure in the disputed region with India.
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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - NUKE test watch continues as work at the test site continues and now under Wuhan lockdowns
Biden landed in South Korea Friday for his first trip to Asia as US leader, aiming to cement ties with regional security allies as concern over a North Korean nuclear test grows. Analysts believe a nuclear and/or ICBM test could occur this weekend.
Struggling with a wuhan crisis, for those not seriously ill, ruling-party newspaper Rodong Simnun recommended remedies including ginger or honeysuckle tea and a willow-leaf drink. The paper also lists other over the counter - style aids that addresses the symptoms. It is believed that Omicron variant is at work in the country, which is easily spread but low mortality rate.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.
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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -
WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia continues its offensive to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable
Pentagon confirms Russia’s top general remains in his position. Earlier today, British military intelligence said Gerasimov “likely remains in post, but it is unclear whether he retains the confidence of President Putin.”
Russia claims 1,730 Ukrainians have surrendered at the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol
Video out showing Ukrainian civilians being marched out of a building used to detain prisoners and marched to an area and executed by Russian soldiers.
Personnel Issues -
- Two MPs from the ruling United Russia party have submitted a draft bill to Russia’s parliament, the Duma, that will remove the upper age limit for men to sign a contract to serve in the country’s armed forces. The current maximum age limit is 40 for Russian citizens.
- Russian forces are continuing to suffer shortages of reserve manpower, causing the Russian military command to consolidate depleted BTGs. An unnamed US defense official reported that Russian forces still have 106 BTGs operating in Ukraine. It is assumed that the majority of these BTGs are undermanned and under equipped.
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine into its third month.
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers predominant in the first half of the 10 day forecast, with drying conditions for the latter half.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine’s military says Russia’s army is advancing in the areas of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, in the eastern region of Luhansk, with a limited break through of Ukraine defenses at Popasna. Russia has also intensified its bombardment of the wider Donbas area, using heavy firepower to damage defenses around the city of Donetsk
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian army shelled Boyaro-Lezhachi, Brusky, Stari Vyrky in the Sumy region and Hremyach and Senkivka village in the Chernihiv region
Eastern (Khariv) front -
The Ukraine counteroffensive to push Russian forces away from Kharkiv continues, though at a much slower pace as Russian defenses stiffen up. The region saw active clashes near Ternova and Vesele, shelling against Ruska Lozova. In last 24 hours Russian troops shelled Kyivsky, Saltovsky and Oleksiivsky districts of Kharkiv with MRLS Smerch, GRAD and Uragan.
Russian ground forces continue to be unsuccessful forcing a northern pincer southward from Izyum to match advances from Popasna as well as failed advances the Slovyansk or Lyman areas.
In the southern sector, Russian forces executed a limited breakthrough to the west from Popasna, reportedly taking Trypillya, Volodymyrivka, Nova Kamianka. The breakout was lead by Russian airborne troops and advanced almost 15 km to the west. Russian forces attempted advances to the north and south as well with limited success. Analysts are concerned that Russia may be able to exploit this breakthrough and use it to isolate Sieverodonetsk.
The following link is to a figure that depicts the situation around Popasna and Sieverodonestk
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTJ_OdGacAE_cXZ?format=jpg&name=medium
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Unidentified partisans reportedly blew up a Russian armored train in Melitopol and damaged two railway tracks and a locomotive with ten fuel tanks.
Russian army attempted to conduct offensive actions near Vesele, Novodarivka , Novomykhailivka and Oleksandrivka but suffered loses and retreated according to Ukraine officials.
Crimea Front -
Nothing significant to report
Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.
Russian Territory -
Russian media and local Telegram channels reported deliberate acts of arson against military commissariats in three Moscow Oblast settlements—Omsk, Volgograd, Ryazan Oblast, and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District—between May 4 and May 18. Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov said that there were at least 12 cases of deliberate arson against military commissariats in total and five last week. Russian officials caught two 16-year-olds in the act in one Moscow Oblast settlement, which suggests that Russian citizens are likely responsible for the attacks on military commissariats.
OUTLOOK -
The limited Russian breakthrough at Popasna has analysts concerned that they could successfully cut off Sieverodonetsk and isolate the troops there. Russian propaganda pushing that the big goal for the Donbas operation is the capture of Sieverodonetsk. However, the advanced out of Popasna is still severely limited to roads and its logistical tail very vulnerable to Ukraine interdiction. This is probably one of the more important battles of the war.
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Moldova/Transnistria - ORANGE *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - This category added this week as false flag events hit Russian controlled Transnistria and Russia agitates this small country.
Nothing significant to report.
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Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine.
Turkey threw a monkey wrench into the application process of Sweden and Finland. Turkey is angling to get sanctions removed for its buddy-buddy deals with Russia and aggressive actions towards Greece in exchange
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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Continued terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has kept tensions high.
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Lebanon - YELLOW
National elections have resulted in Hezebollah and affiliated losing control of the parliament and setting the stage for more civil unrest.
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Syria - YELLOW
Russia is pulling out and Hezebollah/Iran is backfilling.
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Turkey - YELLOW *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - Turkey mostly in the news now blocking NATO membership of Sweden and Finland.
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Black Swans -
Monkeypox
UK Health Security Agency has warned gay and bisexual men to be alert for monkeypox, a disease that they say has been spreading “in sexual networks” in the country. “We are particularly urging men who are gay and bisexual to be aware of any unusual rashes or lesions and to contact a sexual health service without delay.”
Monkeypox contact tracers are probing gay bars and spas as they scramble to contain an outbreak of the rare disease. Health chiefs in the UK are ‘actively investigating’ venues visited by six homosexual and bisexual men who tested positive in the past week.
Six of Britain’s nine confirmed cases are men who have sex with men, which officials say is ‘highly suggestive of spread in sexual networks’.
A similar pattern is emerging in Europe, where seven gay or bisexual men have tested positive in Spain and nine ‘mostly young’ males in Portugal.
The number of patients treated for suspected Monkeypox in the last two days in Madrid is “between 40 and 50”, hospital sources tell El Pais “the flow of patients to the emergency services has not stopped”
However, monkeypox itself does not necessarily seem to be spread via sexual contact itself, with Professor Keith Neal of the University of Nottingham instead suggesting that it is instead a result of “the close contact associated with sexual intercourse.” He added that more work needs to be done to see “whether the virus is found in semen” before labeling it as truly sexually transmitted.
OBSERVATION - This is MEGA politically incorrect and there are elements out there trying to sweep these observations under the carpet.
Another thought is what is the wuhan jab status of these individuals given that evidence is pointing to the fact that the jab actually reduces the overall immune system response of the body.
One last point - Last year in November, billionaire Bill Gates warned of bioterror and called on world leaders to prepare for it with what he calls “germ games” or exercises. Gates said governments should be prepared for future pandemics and – very specifically – smallpox terror attacks by investing billions in research.
Meanwhile to the rescue - The U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) has exercised the final $12 million option for JYNNEOS, an innovative combination of Smallpox and Monkeypox vaccine. JYNNEOS is the only U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccine for preventing disease in adults 18 years of age and older.
Once again great info - you do better than Drudge and others at collecting and reporting that which is of interest to me. So nice getting world views as well.
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Economy -
Markets last week took a beating, pushing towardsthe longest losing streak in nearly 100 years. Market analysts now viewing things entering a bear market phase.
Harley-Davidson is suspending manufacturing for two weeks and has shut down operations in Wisconsin and York, Pennsylvania due to supply chain issues. The shutdown affects the Harley plant in Menomonee Falls. According to a company press release, the decision was made “out of an abundance of caution, is based on information provided by a third-party supplier to Harley-Davidson late on Tuesday concerning a regulatory compliance matter relating to the supplier’s component part.”
The news sank Harley’s stock price nearly 9% shortly before Thursday’s market open. Shares closed at $32.43, down 9.3%.
OBSERVATION - This reflects the possible start of a resurgence of supply issues for American companies.
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Invasion of Illegals -
U.S. District Court Judge Robert Summerhays of the Western District of Louisiana on Friday afternoon blocked the U.S. government from ending the Title 42 policy, forcing U.S. border officials to continue turning most illegal migrants back to Mexico rather than taking them into custody.
OBSERVATION - Will biden et al try to do a slow walk on this decision, toeing the line and creating loopholes while appealing the decision. He’s done it in the past.
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Biden / Harris watch -
Biden’s general approval rating has slumped to 35 percent (down from 38 percent in the last Quinnipiac Poll)
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Last year, the National School Boards Association (NSBA) penned a letter to the Department of Justice in which it urged the administration to target parents who dissent from left-wing educational initiatives as “domestic terrorists.” Fox News reports that the NBSA conducted its own review of the letter, and CEO and executive director John Heim said in a statement that the correspondence goes against the association’s “core commitments to parent engagement, local control, and nonpartisanship.”
OBSERVATION - Fox guards henhouse. To date - Garland has not reminded the memo targeting parents as domestic terrorists.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Catholic Archbishop Salvatore Cordileone said he formally notified U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi this week that she is not allowed to receive communion unless she repents of her abortion advocacy. Cordileone, who serves Pelosi’s home district of San Francisco, said he informed the congresswoman of his decision Thursday after repeated attempts to speak with her about the “grave evil” that she is supporting.
“After numerous attempts to speak with her to help her understand the grave evil she is perpetrating, the scandal she is causing, and the danger to her own soul she is risking, I have determined that the point has come in which I must make a public declaration that she is not to be admitted to Holy Communion unless and until she publicly repudiate her support for abortion ‘rights’ and confess and receive absolution for her cooperation in this evil in the sacrament of Penance.”
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Strategic Activity / Deployments
Swedish officials are requesting a larger U.S. naval presence in the Baltic Sea as part of the ongoing diplomatic push for Sweden and Finland to join NATO, two defense officials told USNI News on Thursday.
U.S. aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-72) departed Yokosuka on Friday for its 2022 spring patrol, U.S. 7th Fleet said in a news release. Destroyers from Destroyer Squadron 15 and cruisers USS Chancellorsville (CG-62) and USS Antietam (CG-54) make up Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group.
While Reagan departs, USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) will make a port visit to Yokosuka on Saturday, Yokosuka City’s official website said in a news release.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
State Dep - “We remain concerned that the DPRK may attempt to undertake another provocation during the course of the president’s visit to Northeast Asia or in the days following that could include another ICBM test, that could include a test of a nuclear weapon.
Nearly 2.5 million people have been sickened by “fever” in North Korea and it is under a nationwide lockdown, according to the country’s state media. NK has turned down offers of help from SK and the US.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
********
Economic Impact -
- The ruble surged to the highest level in seven years against the euro as more European companies appeared to be complying with Vladimir Putin’s demand that they switch to paying in Russia’s currency for natural gas.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers scattered throughout the 10 day forecast
Portuguese PM arrived in Kyiv and also visited Irpin.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian troops reportedly regained positions taken by Ukrainian counteroffensives north of Kharkiv City & and appear to have made gains to the north, west, & south of Popasna to continue their offensive on Severodonetsk from the south.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Nothing significant to report
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Once again, a fluid tactical situation .
Ukraine continued its offensive away from Kharkiv, with reports of limited Russian counter attacks seeking to undo Ukrainan gains north of Kharkiv. Fighting was reported in Vesele, Tsyrkuny, Zolochiv, and Ternova and Russian forces may have recaptured Ternova and Rubizhne.
Russia shelled cities northeast of Kharkiv - Derhachi, Bezruki, Slatyne, Prudyanka and Ruska Lozova.
Russian missile strike hit House of Culture in Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast.
Donetsk Oblast (Eastern Ukraine) *NEW* -
As the battle has morphed, I’m separating what was once the southern portion of the Kharkiv Front to a new zone. This covers the Izyum to southwest of Popasna areas of combat. I’ve been separating these in the past, just making it more formalized.
The battle around Popasna / Sieverodonetsk intensified overnight as Russia pressed attacks towards Lyman, Severodonetsk, Siversk, Lysychansk and Bakhmut.
Russian forces intensified efforts to break through Ukrainian defenses around Popasna in order to push towards Severodonetsk from the south yesterday. Pro-Russian news (NOTE propaganda alert) sources reported that Russian forces made advances through Ukrainian lines of defense in three directions. Russian Airborne (VDV) forces reportedly took control of Volodymirivka and Lypove, and broke through Ukrainian defenses in Komyshuvakha, all north of Popasna. Troops of the Russian ”Wagner” Private Military Company reportedly took control of Trypillya and Vyskrivka to the west of Popasna. However, these operations are consistent with Ukrainian General Staff statements that the Russian grouping around Popasna is trying to take new territory. Russian troops reportedly made marginal gains and took control of Shchedryshcheve and Syrotne, just north of Severodonetsk.
The links below depicts some of the most recent activity.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTJ_OdGacAE_cXZ?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTQLCmcWAAAvWiA?format=jpg&name=large
Southern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front *** RENAMED ***-
Given the changes in the war, this is now the SOUTHERN front, still comprised of separatist controlled territory.
Russians still in the process of consolidating control of Mariupol and processing Ukraine POWs and other evacuees. Reports that residents are being forcibly mobilized into the militia of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR).
Scattered Russian/separatist attacks along the LOC with no advances.
Crimea Front -
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops are bringing engineering equipment to frontlines on the Southern Axis to construct a second line of defense, which likely indicates that Russian forces are preparing to defend against possible Ukrainian counter-offensives.
Missile strike was reported in Odesa district
Western Ukraine -
Russian missile strike at military object in Rivne region.
Russian Territory -
Ukraine shelled targets in Tyotkino, Kursk region
OUTLOOK - Battles continue to be fluid.
BLUF - Russia is rolling the dice and concentrating efforts to capture the Sieverodonetsk region.
Russia has committed its best trained and battle hardened units to the breakout at Popasna - the VDV and Wagner Group mercenaries. However, Russia will be forced to rely on regular units to carry the attack in the near future. That is where things are likely to start stalling out. The next few days will be critical to see if Ukraine’s defensive measures are up to the task of blunting the Russian advance.
The Russian successes at Popasna have had another effect and that is what appears to be the diversion of Ukrainan resources from its Izyum counter offensive to the Popasna/Sieverodonetsk defense. Not completely confirmed, but news of action against the Izyum salient has dropped off significantly.
Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive is hitting a wall against limited Russian counter attacks. This may serve to delay the Ukraine forces or cause the commitment of more units.
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Belarus -
Putin will hold a meeting with Belarusian president Lukashenko in Sochi some time in the next few days.
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Europe / NATO General -
Russia to cut off Finland from natural gas supplies today. Most gas used in Finland comes from Russia but gas only accounts for about 5 per cent of the Scandinavian country’s annual energy consumption. Moscow already cut off gas to Bulgaria and Poland last month after they refused to comply with new Russian rules requiring settlements in roubles
OBSERVATION - I said before the war kicked off Russia has a big economic stick available to it in its domination of natural gas to the rest of Europe.
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Israel -
IAF stuck targets near Damascus’ airport overnight. Syria reports at least two interceptions reports of 6 impacts. The Israeli strikes reportedly targeted Iranian positions and weapon depots.
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Syria -
See IAF airstrikes under Israel above.
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Black Swans -
MONKEY POX - This may soon warrant its own topic line.
Where have we sen this movie before??? An international biosecurity conference in Munich A YEAR AGO held a simulation of a “global pandemic involving an unusual strain of Monkeypox” beginning in mid-May 2022. Oh yeh, I remember, “Event 201” - the simulation of an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic.
World Health Organization: Monkeypox has so far been reported from 11 countries that normally don’t have the disease. WHO is working with these countries & others to expand surveillance, and provide guidance. There are about 80 confirmed cases, and 50 pending investigations. More likely to be reported.
Israel reported on Friday its first suspected case of the monkeypox virus at Tel Aviv hospital where a man who reportedly came back from a trip to Western Europe was hospitalized.
A sauna in Spain’s capital has been forced to close over a suspected link to a monkeypox outbreak in the country, health authorities said Friday. Several European countries have reported cases in recent days, and the World Health Organization is investigating whether some outbreaks spread within the gay community. The Paraiso sauna, a gay-friendly establishment whose name means “paradise” in the heart of Madrid, said on Twitter it was shutting its doors.
WHO’s Europe regional director Hans Kluge warned that “as we enter the summer season... with mass gatherings, festivals and parties, I am concerned that transmission could accelerate”.
He added that all but one of the recent cases had no relevant travel history to areas where monkeypox was endemic.
Authorities are also noting that there has been no unusual changes in infections rates in West Africa.
OF ADDITIONAL NOTE - Out of all the cases reported outside Africa, they are all MEN. Not a single woman reported that I’ve seen. This builds upon the observation that these men are transmitting the disease via homo/bisexual activity.
SUMMARY - Monkeypox according to authorities has long been relatively predictable and contained in Central and West Africa. Small numbers of cases have cropped up elsewhere in the world before, including the UK, but all can be immediately linked to somebody having traveled to an affected country and bringing it home.
That is no longer the case.
* For the first time the virus is being found in people with no clear connection to Western and Central Africa
* It is not clear who people are catching it from
* Monkeypox is spreading during sexual activities with most cases having lesions on their genitals and the surrounding area
* Many of those affected are gay and bisexual young men
This has caused the concern in the medical community. So far it seems as long as you are not engaging in gay/bisexual activities you should be safe. Until more information comes out, I don’t see this as wuhan 2.
Good OP at this FR thread -
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4065047/posts