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Globalism / Great Reset -
In a post from a couple days ago, I noted that WEF/GGR supporter Blackrock is heavily involved in Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG). The link below goes to an opinion piece that explains what ESG is in a little better way than I can.
Exerpts -
“Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing is an investment strategy you can use to put your money to work with companies that strive to make the world a better place.”
“Few knew what the initials “ESG” meant 5 years ago, but it is well-known today among corporate investors. One hundred and eighty CEOs recently signed a Business Roundtable statement on business purpose. They have agreed to move away from trying to improve business and the investment outcome for its stockholders, focusing instead on goals involving political objectives.”
“Whoever gave banks this sort of control over the world to collude to reshape economies and energy infrastructure? The answer is the notorious World Economic Forum whose rich members meet annually in Davos, Switzerland, to discuss taking over the world under the leadership of Klaus Schwab, author of the now-infamous Great Reset, which describes how these jet setters hope to accomplish this.”
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Economy -
In a move to ease a nationwide shortage of infant formula, the Food and Drug Administration on Monday said it has agreed with Abbott Nutrition on a plan to reopen the company’s manufacturing plant in Sturgis, Michigan, after it was shut down following the discovery of a deadly bacteria inside.
The FDA also announced Monday it would make it easier for global manufacturers to sell their product inside the U.S. so long as they meet certain criteria.
OBSERVATION - It will take about 2 months before product from this plant reaches store shelves. The “bacteria” inside the is not the same as reportedly affected TWO infants. FDA is not reporting on the substantial numbers of infants harmed due to the lack of formula. See Political Front below on a key point - shut down of ONE plant did not cause the loss of 40-50% of the baby formula across the nation.
The amount of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to 538 million barrels, the lowest since 1987. The amount is expected to continue even lower as the 1 million barrel / day withdrawals continue for the next several months.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Illegal immigrants have only limited grounds to appeal deportation orders to the federal courts, the Supreme Court ruled Monday. The 5-4 decision makes it more difficult for those involved in deportation proceedings to get a federal court to review factual determinations that were made by an immigration court about the procedure.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Conspiracy theory - Is the baby formula crisis a response by the deep state to the impending reversal of Rowe V Wade? How does 40-50% of the baby formula suddenly disappear from store shelves in such a short time frame? Indeed, our dystopian leaders are telling us that this whole mess is the fault of one plant in Sturgis. I don’t think so.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments
Pres. Biden signed an order authorizing the military to deploy hundreds of Special Operations forces inside Somalia—reversing the decision by Pres. Trump to withdraw nearly all 700 ground troops stationed there.
OBSERVATION - No real reason for us to stick our noses back into this quagmire - except it is useful to distract our Special Ops outside the country.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russia is calling the “surrender” of the Ukraine forces at the Azovstal steel plant its greatest victory of the war. It is neglecting the fact that this was a pyrrhic victory where an outnumbered Ukrainan force tied up and chewed up a numerically superior Russian force for nearly 80 days.
Following up on his threat to Finland, videos show a battery of Iskander ballistic missile launchers - which can carry nukes - moving towards the Finnish border. Footage posted on Russian social media claimed the rockets were heading towards Vyborg - a city located just 30 miles from Finland and 135 miles from Helsinki, putting the capital within easy range.
RUMINT -
President putin is determining movement of Russian soldiers, say sources, as head of UK armed forces says Ukraine is winning. His involvement is reported to be down to the operational and tactical decisions “at the level of a colonel or brigadier”, according to western military sources.
The Russian president is helping determine the movement of forces in the Donbas, they added, where last week the invaders suffered a bloody defeat as they tried on multiple occasions to cross a strategic river in the east of Ukraine.
The sources added that Putin is still working closely with Gen Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the Russian armed forces, in contrast to claims made by Ukraine last week that the military chief had been sidelined.
Logistics -
- Russia received delivery of a small number of T90 tanks for deployment to the Ukraine battle zone. Their most advanced tank, the quick destruction of one of the first units to the battle zone was blown up by Ukraine forces within days fo the announcement.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers predominant in the 10 day forecast, indicating that off road conditions will get progressively worse.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
8 killed, 12 wounded as result of missile strike in Desna, Chernihiv region.
Explosions reported at Seredyna-Buda in Sumy region.
The Russian army shelled Okhtyrka Sumy region in the early morning, at least 5 were wounded – region official
In Chernihiv Oblast, approximately 3,500 buildings are estimated to have been destroyed or damaged... 80% of the damage has been caused to residential buildings...The scale of this damage indicates Russia’s preparedness to use artillery against inhabited areas.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Once again, a fluid tactical situation .
Russia attempted to move the forces into Donbas from multiple axises, but generally faced failure with very little to show for their work. A lot of the action overnight consisted of artillery strikes into areas facing Russian ground attacks, in an attempt to soften up the defenses.
Very little fighting coming out of the Izyum area, more intense fighting observed in Lyman, Bakhmut, Kurakhove, and Shandrygolove.
There are but reliable reports that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Donets river near Kharkiv and taken up positions in 2 villages. This is important in that it allows further attacks eastward to threaten key Russian supply lines.
Russian resistance appears to be trying to stiffen up rather than a withdrawal under fire as observed in the north. This may well be due to the fact that if Russia cedes very more ground then Belgorod comes into easy range of Ukraine tube and rocket artillery.
Russian troops shelled hospital in Severodonetsk and conducted 2 airstrikes in Popasna districts, in total 10 dead and 3 wounded. Non-stop shelling tonight in Hirske and Zolote, NW of Popasna with at least 20 houses destroyed.
The Ukrainian counter offensive against the Izyum salient is still developing. Ukrainian forces hit a Russian ammo depots in town of Izyum, destroying a significant stockpile of ammunition.
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
The Ukrainian military says the defenders of Mariupol have ended their mission, after hundreds of soldiers left the Azovstal steel plant. More than 260 fighters were taken to Russian-controlled territory late on Monday. They are expected to be exchanged for Russian prisoners of war.
General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine: Mariupol’ garrison has accomplished their mission. Deputy minister of Defense of Ukraine confirmed evacuation of wounded defenders of Azovstal to Novoazovsk(53) and Olenivka(211) for later prisoners exchange.
Russian and Separatist forces are working at the Port of Mariupol to establish shipping routes from Russia. The Donetsk People’s Republic claimed that proxy militia will de-mine the port by May 25. This would create a shorter supply line to forces attacking northward into the Donbas region.
Crimea Front -
Ukrainian aviation and artillery conducted 100 strikes against Russian positions in Kherson. Ukrainian forces also reportedly struck Russian ammunition and field bases in central and northern Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition depot in Chornobaivka again, likely near the Kherson City Airport. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also destroyed a Russian field depot on the southeastern border of Mykolaiv Oblast.
Western Ukraine -
One of most massive missile attacks against L’viv overnight with 2 waves, some missile were shot down. The missiles were launched from Belarusian airspace just after midnight local time. The mayor of Lviv confirmed rocket attacks on the city. A total of 8 explosions are reported.
Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes. The “surrender” of forces at the Azovstal steel plant is nearly complete, but they served their purpose in trying down a considerable number of Russian /Separatist forces, chewing them up and keeping them from reinforcing attacks northward into Donbas or westward towards Odesa.
The Ukraine offensive north and eastward from Kharkiv shows no sign of slowing down. The fact that they were successful in crossing the Donets river has opened up new options for the offensive. They also avoided the debacle the Russias experienced last week. Likely actions on the east side of the Donets would be to roll up towards the Russia border and seized control of a major road crossing point from Russia moving material and men to Donbas operation. As secondary operation would be to push further east to secure the crossing site.
Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine will continue to focus on trapping ever smaller pieces of Ukraine forces. They will apply as much artillery as they can to soften Ukraine positions and provide cover for the ground assault but still appear to lack coordination with ground forces during the assault.
It is looking like Russia is trying to secure territorial gains in the Crimea front for part i of the Russian ‘victory’ conditions, lacking sufficient forces to push towards Odesa and north in support of the Donbas operation.
Separatist and mercenary forces will continue to under perform and unable to coordinate attacks northward towards Izyum.
Russia will continue to launch missile attacks on central and western Ukraine but those attacks will come in surges and mostly targeting civilian / residential areas. Their effectiveness in cutting off Ukraine resupply efforts is essentially nil.
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Europe / NATO General -
Turkey’s president has restated his opposition to Finland and Sweden joining Nato - just hours after they said they would seek membership. Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the two Nordic nations should not bother sending delegations to convince Turkey, a key Nato member, of their bids. He is angered by what he sees as their willingness to host Kurdish militants. Sweden suspended arms sales to Turkey three years ago, following Ankara’s military intervention in Syria. And according to the official Turkish news agency, both Finland and Sweden have rejected dozens of requests to extradite Kurdish militants who Turkey describes as terrorists.
Without the support of all Nato members, Sweden and Finland cannot join the military alliance.
OBSERVATION - Turkish islamic radicalism has placed them increasingly at odds against the rest of NATO over the past decade. Turkey is angling for some sort of concession - most likely changes to weapons denial after they decided to purchase the Russian S400 system.
The Russia threat has even affected the most neutral of countries. Switzerland’s defense ministry is tilting closer to NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, putting its fabled neutral status to test.
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Pakistan -
In Pakistan, former PM Imran Khan is fighting back against his removal from office by an April 3 rd non-confidence vote in parliament. He has called for two million Pakistanis to assemble in the capital on May 20th to demonstrate the extent of his popular support. Khan accuses the United States and the military of conspiring with opposition politicians to gain enough votes to remove him. Khan has proved to be a disruptive but revealing politician. While annoying the political and military establishment groups, he retains widespread support from dissatisfied Pakistanis.
The main reason for some of Khan’s political allies to turn against him was economic. High unemployment (nearly 10 percent) and inflation (14 percent and rising) and a collapse of the local currency to a record 193 rupees per dollar are the result of endemic corruption and excessive military spending.
OBSERVATION - Internal strife and potential for civil war in a nuclear armed Islamic country is very serious.
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Israel -
Russian forces appear to have opened fire on Israeli jets with advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missiles when Israel reportedly attacked targets in northwestern Syria last week, according to news reports. This could signal a significant shift in Moscow’s attitude to Israel. If confirmed, this would mark the first time such an incident has taken place.
OBSERVATION - This is serious. Israel and Russia had set up a sort of a notification system so that Israel would avoid Russian manned S300 systems when conducing their raids on Hezebollah facilities. Hezebollah had increasingly placed its facilities near Syrian ADA to gain thier coverage / support. Russia had forbidden this action. Israel in the future will not hesitate to strike Russian ADA if they target and shoot at their aircraft again, greatly raising the risk of escalating conflict with Russia.
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Lebanon -
Hezbollah appears to have retained its parliamentary seats, while some of its allies lose theirs; Saudi-backed LF party wins several new seats. Turnout was low, just 41 percent — eight points lower than in 2018, in the general election Sunday, the first since the Mediterranean country was plunged into a deep economic crisis that has stoked popular fury with the hereditary and graft-tainted ruling class.
The Lebanese Forces (LF) of former warlord Samir Geagea, which has strong ties with Saudi Arabia, won several new seats and should emerge as the largest Christian party.
New opposition candidates also booked some gains, pushing forward the agenda of a cross-sectarian protest movement that erupted in late 2019 against a ruling elite widely seen as inept and corrupt.
OBSERVATION - Minor shift into an Anti-Hezbollah mode. Sets the stage for future parliamentary feuding and more internal dissent that will result in more of the same for the Lebanese people.
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Misc of Note -
Just going to file this here for record. Sri Lanka is a poor third world country and hardly a threat to the US. However, Sri Lanka has descended into real chaos. Hungry residents are literally preying on wealthy residents and officials, burning their homes and cars. The police have open fire to kill with more than 200 people have already been killed.
This is a study in human behavior. After the 2019 BLM/Antifa riots we saw how segments of our society can erupt into violence - we are not immune to similar behavior as is occurring in Sri Lanka. Now, two years later, very similar conditions are building here in the US - with gas and food prices surging and baby formula scarce on store shelves, how much longer will our society be able to restrain similar behavior?
The progressive / socialist left in this country have been waging war against it through the proliferation of multiple ‘crisises’. The food and economic vectors of their attack IMHO are converging with others to hit at a period before the midterm and they are aware that their progressive polices are in the electorate crosshairs. This has brought many theories of biden declaring an ‘emergency’ of some sort, even to the point of martial law, to tip the scales and allow the democrats to retail control of congress. I normally stay away from conspiracy theories, but I cannot ignore that conditions leading up to the midterms are coming apart at the seams quicker and quicker. I am becoming more convinced that biden’s poor management of issues is deliberate and not just the results of klutzy decisions.
Go forth in the coming months with your eyes wide open.
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Black Swans -
It is now clear that La Nina is not going away, and may hang around into next winter. Cold water is entrenched over the central and eastern tropical Pacific (the definition of La Nina) and the latest forecast model runs suggest a continuation into fall.
But first, the bottom line: the summer effects of La Nina are modest, but will push the western side of our region towards cooler than normal conditions. In contrast, West Coast precipitation is hardly changed…perhaps slightly drier on the western sides of the Cascades. I suspect this is because the colder water works against thunderstorms. Interestingly, La Nina seems to have more summer impact over the Midwest U.S. resulting in hotter, drier conditions.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
Still looking for additional confirmation on this but noting this for future watch anyway. Iran reportedly is set to be the first country to roll out a food rationing scheme (or ‘limited subsidy’) based on new biometric IDs.
OBSERVATION - Could be considered to be a “food passport” like the wuhan passport. Iran is currently facing unrest over shortages and high costs of food. May be an over reaction to digital ‘credits’ - SEE Iran below.
Amazon’s founder and executive chairman announced a $10 billion Bezos Earth Fund. The billions will be spent by the Washington Post’s owner to save the planet from people.
The Bezos Earth Fund calls for “a great reset that will lead us all toward a more sustainable, prosperous future.” The term, “great reset” became highly controversial after its embrace by the World Economic Forum and the Bezos Earth Fund is touted by the WEF.
The Bezos Earth Fund’s version of the Great Reset argues that the “economy in 2030 must be dramatically different from what it is today” and insists that “radical changes will be needed” that will encompass “some 40 to 60 shifts”.
OBSERVATION - Of course the mega rich elites exempt themselves. . . . .
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Wuhan virus -
A peer-reviewed paper published by the Journal of the American Medical Association concluded that immunity against the omicron coronavirus variant fades rapidly after a second and third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The proportion of antibodies dropped from 76% four weeks after the second shot to 19% at weeks 12 to 14. The antibodies dropped even faster after the third dose, the booster shot. Between the third and eighth week, antibodies fell 5.4-fold for omicron.
OBSERVATION - This largely confirms what other studies have pointed out
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Economy -
JPMorgan’s commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva warns that US retail gasoline prices could surge another 37% by August to a $6.20/gal national average.
Speaking of gasoline, gas stations in the state of Washington are reportedly reprogramming pumps to include double-digit numbers in “price per gallon” as the current trend could put prices over $10.00.
At the 76 Gas Station in Auburn, Washington located at 1725 Auburn Way North, gas pumps have been reprogrammed to make room for double-digit pricing. In March, they still had single-digit programming.
A Spokesperson at 76 confirmed to The Post Millennial that the gas pumps were reprogrammed to allocate for double-digit pricing. Although not confirming that they are expecting prices to increase up to $10.00 or more, the current trend suggests the possibility.
OBSERVATION - Reports are that this is occurring elsewhere.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday pledged that the U.S. central bank would ratchet interest rates as high as needed to kill a surge in inflation that he said threatened the foundation of the economy.
“What we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way and we’re going to keep pushing until we see that,” Powell said at a Wall Street Journal event. “If we don’t see that, we will have to consider moving more aggressively” to tighten financial conditions. The Fed has raised its benchmark policy rate by three-quarters of a percentage point this year, and is on track to increase it again in half-percentage-point increments at its next two meetings in June and July.
OBSERVATION - This will pop the housing bubble, creating another crisis of affordable home shortages and unaffordable loans. However, this will also savage other credit related items - credit cards rates will skyrocket to crazy levels. And it will cause further hurt to the economy, slowing it down and raising unemployment. Note the convergence factor - July - given lag time worst could hit early fall.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey Index was expected to increase by 16.5% in May, however data came in at a surprising level of negative 11.6%. The change represents a 36.2% fall from last month and is second only to the index published in April of 2020 when Covid lockdowns were widespread in the U.S. This is the second-largest surprise ever recorded for the survey. The Manufacturing Index serves as a preliminary measure for what we might expect in the months to come. The majority of the slowdown is due to falling new orders, higher inventories, and increased freight times that are much worse than anticipated. (FO)
News that the biden admin has been aware of baby formula shortage issues for a considerably long time. From an interview with CNN
CNN: “You are satisfied with the government’s response throughout [the baby formula shortage]?”
HHS Sec. Xavier Becerra: “FDA has kept me apprised of this from LAST YEAR. We have been moving as quickly as we can”
OBSERVATION - Administration has moved from sheer incompetence to deliberate malfeasance IMHO.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released nearly 118,000 border crossers and illegal aliens into American communities in the month of April. The figure comes after Biden’s DHS released more than 80,000 border crossers and illegal aliens into the United States interior in March.
Neither of these figures include the hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens who successfully entered the U.S., undetected by Border Patrol, or the tens of thousands of Unaccompanied Alien Children (UACs) the federal government resettles across various American communities every month.
National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd said Tuesday that once Title 42 goes away, the Border Patrol will be releasing about 230,000 people into the U.S. next month.
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Biden / Harris watch -
“The Real President Is Whoever Controls The Teleprompter” - Musk
OUCH!
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Following the shooting in Buffalo, New York, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) vowed to pursue new gun control legislation. “[T]he House will continue to consider additional measures to strengthen efforts to combat domestic terrorism. We must never stop fighting to end the bloodshed — because enough is enough.”
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Domestic Terror -
Now that the smoke has cleared, more info on the CA shootings. David Chou, the mass shooter who killed one and wounded five Taiwanese-Americans, was working as a political operative for a Chinese front organization conducting information operations here in the U.S. Chou was a key leader in the National Association for China’s Peaceful Unification, a Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-controlled influence operation advocating Taiwan’s forced repatriation with China.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments
The Navy activated a new Unmanned Surface Vessel Division (USVDIV) on Monday. USVDIV is tasked with accelerating and managing the delivery of credible and reliable unmanned systems to integrate with the Pacific Fleet’s manned naval surface combatants.
Various OSINT observers are noting that there appears to be a massive Sealift Operation currently underway from the Eastern United States involving almost all USNS Ships in the Atlantic, including the USNS Soderman one of the Navy’s RORO Ships who left the Sunny Point Naval Yard yesterday heading likely toward Europe. It is believed that they are carrying heavier equipment and materials for the Ukraine war support effort.
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Cyber Warfare -
According to an alert from the FBI and the Departments of State and Treasury, North Korean government hackers may be using fake credentials to gain employment with U.S. companies as remote IT workers. The alert stated that these “IT workers” might use their privileged access to corporate networks to conduct cyber attacks. (FO)
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China -
Indian media reports China is building a ‘bigger, broader’ bridge at Pangong Tso, along the Line of Actual Control with the Chinese. It says the bridge can carry armored columns. 1st bridge was built in April, used as a service bridge to build the 2nd.
OBSERVATION - China continues to improve infrastructure on its controlled areas of the LOC. This would facilitate any future conflict with India. These areas are also important to China in that they give better access to Mongolia and Tibet.
USDA statistics pointing to what he calls China’s “hoarding” of key commodities. By mid-2022, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of its rice, and 51% of its wheat, according to USDA predictions.
OBSERVATION - China plays the long game and started these substantial grain purchases over a year ago when its internal crop productions were hit by floods.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
North Korea appears to be preparing for an ICBM test within the next 48 to 96 hours (by this weekend), according to U.S. officials. Could be timed for President Biden will arrive in South Korea on Friday and hold talks with South Korean counterparts before visiting Japan a few days later.
On a more extreme end, South Korean officials assessed that the nuclear test could be timed to coincide with a scheduled presidential summit as well
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russia in response to the expulsion of 41 employees of Russian diplomatic institutions from France expels 34 employees of French diplomatic institutions
Reports that Russia has scraped up enough night vision devices to start substantial night ops in Donbas.
Russian media is discussing a “Donetsk Nuremberg” for Azov Battalion fighters from Mariupol.
U.S. House Reps Joe Wilson (R-SC) and Ted Lieu (D-CA) introduced a bill to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terror for its actions in Ukraine and around the world.
Economic Impact -
- Italian energy giant Eni opens ruble and euro accounts to pay for Russian gas. There are as many as 6 other entities that have done the same to get around the EU imposed embargoes.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers predominant in the 10 day forecast, indicating that off road conditions will get progressively worse.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
A lot of action in SE Ukraine with limited gains by Russia. Meanwhile Ukraine continues to press its counter offensive to the northeast and east of Kharkiv.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Unconfirmed reports that there is a heavy battle near Seredyna-Buda in Sumy region, border breakthrough attempt by Russian troops. There are fires along border line as result of shelling. Artillery attacks have been confirmed by the Ukrainian military, but any ground attacks have not.
Russian army shelled villages of Sumy region with MLRS GRAD and artillery, Ukrainian army responded to the sources of fire
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Once again, a fluid tactical situation .
Ukrainian forces continued to push the remaining Russian forces northeast of Kharkiv City. Increasing resistance has been encountered near Vovchansk, a border settlement approximately 90 km northeast of Kharkiv City. Vovchansk controls a major supply line coming south from Belgorod to southeastern Ukraine (and more specifically - Izyum).
Russian troops shelled Kharkiv overnight along Russian Su-35 jets conducted airstrikes in Bakhmut, Klynove, Soledar and Vovchoyarivka.
Reports that Russia may be closing in on Lyman and the tactical situation may be rapidly deteriorating for Ukrainian troops. Yesterday, Russia reportedly captured Novoselivka to the NW and may have captured Yarova. If these reports are confirmed, Lyman is now surrounded on three sides with only destroyed bridges over the Donets on the 4th side. However, battles have been see-saw affairs, so any action is not final at this stage.
Russia also trying to push out from Popasna to the north and southwest in order to reach the Bahmut-Lysychansk highway.
Most of the Russian activity appears to be coordinated to encircle and capture Severodonetsk. As the territorial goals of the Donbas campaign have gotten increasingly smaller since its start, the battle for Severodonetsk has taken a larger part of the Russia domestic media coverage, some feel to deflect from consistent combat failures. The Severodonetsk pocket is a very small area in eastern Ukraine and the increased Russian effort over the past three weeks to gain control over it indicates the Russian forces are still heavily degraded and tactical operations still plagued with the standard problems.
Ukraine offensive against the Izyum salient continues to develop.
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Maripol has “officially” been captured by Russia.
2 missile strikes against Dnipro city this morning, one missile was shot down, but debris damaged a house. Another missile targeted and destroyed transport infrastructure object
Russian forces also conducted a series of unsuccessful ground assaults in western Donetsk Oblast. One assault unsuccessfully attempted to seize a segment of the N20 highway to Slovyansk east of Avdiivka while another failed to reach the N15 highway to Zaporizhia.
Crimea Front -
No significant actions as Russia appears to continue dig in defensively.
Major action focused on Russian missile and air attacks on Ukraine infrastructure. Russian forces continued to launch rocket- and airstrikes on Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts in an effort to disrupt transportation infrastructure in the region. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces launched two cruise missiles at a bridge over the Dniester estuary on May 17. The bridge connects Odesa Oblast with the highway to Romania and has reportedly been damaged and out of operation for over two weeks. Russian forces likely seek to destroy the bridge beyond the possibility of repair to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines from Romania. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command also reported that Russian forces struck maritime infrastructure 70 km southwest of Mykolaiv Oblast.
Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report
Russian Territory -
Explosions were reported in Belgorod, Russia overnight.
OUTLOOK -
Dynamics of the situation can change quickly. I’m at about a 24 hour lag on much of it. Russia will make some gains one day, the next Ukraine.
BLUF - Russia will push hard in eastern Ukraine to try to come up with some sort of ‘victory’ to claim. Capture of the Severodonetsk pocket is high on their list. Ukraine will continue to push east and north out of Kharkiv to threaten Russian supply lines to Izyum and the south along with developing its offensive into the Izyum salient.
Russia is pressuring far eastern Ukrainian cities of Severodonetsk and Lyman, but its gains are costly. Russia appears to be moving slowly in order not to over ever extend its supply chain, and is having success. However, it still runs frontal attacks against Ukraine positions and suffers the hurt.
Ukraine has to balance its offensive and defensive operations so it doesn’t get caught overextended. This is not the time for them to get cocky as Russia is improving in some areas. However, offensive actions are in many cases the best defense and the current Kharkiv offensive and the developing Izyum attacks are good moves strategically. They may be forced to trade some territory in the southeast in order to accomplish the tasks.
The coastal areas east of Odesa will see Russian efforts to consolidate. It will take time but if Russia can restore some operations of the Maripol port facilities, Russian supply to the war effort will be enhanced, perhaps enough to break the stalemate on the southern margin of the Donbas offensive.
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Europe / NATO General -
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Finland and Sweden formally applied to join the alliance.
Turkey has essentially stalled any of the initial talks on the addition.
NATO is conducting vigilance activity NEPTUNE SHIELD 2022 (NESH22), which integrates high-end maritime expeditionary strike capabilities of Sea, Air and Land assets. The activities will take place in the Baltic, Adriatic and Mediterranean Seas, from 17-31 May.
During NESH 22, we will conduct the handover of command and control of the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group (CSG) and the Combined Task Force 61/2, which includes the USS Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), and the 22d Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) from SIXTHFLT to STRIKFORNATO and the wider Alliance.
IN RELATED - Finland’s Navy kicked off a large exercise highlighting its ability to defend maritime assets. The exercise includes maritime traffic protection, situational awareness drills, littoral combat tasks, and live at-sea and coastal fire missions. Finland’s Defense Forces are also displaying their ability to operate alongside NATO members’ militaries before their application.
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Israel -
The US and Israeli Air Forces will take part in a joint exercise simulating an attack on Iran, according to news reports. The simulated attack on Iran will be held as part of the ‘Chariots of Fire’ military exercise, one of the longest such exercises in the history of the IDF. The exercise will take place in two weeks, when many Israeli fighter jets will simulate an attack in Iran, and the US Air Force will refuel the Israeli aircraft.
OBSERVATION - Israeli lack of refueling aircraft is one of the biggest hinderances to striking Iran with something other than missiles. Israel has requested more tankers, US has been stalling. This exercise becomes even more important given that Iran is installing, newer, more advanced centrifuges, which could allow purification of uranium to the 90+ % threshold in quantities needed for a nuclear weapon to occur in a matter of weeks.
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Iran -
See Globalism / Great Reset above
Iranian leadership faces pressure from its own people, who have been protesting in response to a floundering economy. The protests began last week when the government slashed food subsidies on eggs, milk, chicken, and cooking oil leading to price rises of some 300%. Since then, protests have spread to many areas of the country and according to observers have taken on a much more anti-government current.
The Iranian government said it will offer digital coupons that will allow citizens to access a limited amount of bread at subsidized prices, while the rest will be available at market rates. The bread scheme will come into force in about two months and will later include other goods such as chicken, cheese and vegetable oil, officials have said.
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Lebanon -
Hezbollah and its allies lost the majority it held in the Lebanese parliament, as their opponent, the Christian Lebanese Forces, became the largest Christian party in parliament after the final results of the elections in the country were announced on Tuesday. Following are the results of the elections by party, according to L’Orient Le Jour:
* Lebanese Forces: 19 seats
* Free Patriotic Movement (Hezbollah ally): 17 seats
* Amal (Hezbollah ally): 14 seats
* Related to the Future Movement: 8 seats
* Hezbollah: 13 seats
* Kataeb: 4 seats
* Marada (Hezbollah ally): 2 seats
* Progressive Socialist Party: 8 seats
* Opposition Groups formed after economic protests: 13 seats
* Independents: 16 seats
* Linked to March 8 alliance (Hezbollah allies): 9 seats
* Linked to March 14 alliance: 2 seats
* Tashnag (Hezbollah ally): 3 seats
On Monday, Hezbollah MP Mohammed Raad warned other parties to “pay attention to their political discourse and behavior, and to the country’s future” and urged them not to be “fuel for a civil war,” according to Al-Mayadeen.
Hezbollah and its allies won a majority of 71 when Lebanon last voted in 2018. This time 58 seats.
OBSERVATION - Big blow to Hezbollah, after Sunday’s exit polls shows them holding onto control. They will not give up power very easily and the country could face greater civil degradation (as if that is possible). Instability of Lebanon would make any Hezbollah action against Israel difficult as it could see locals covertly aiding Israeli targeting and resistance.
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Turkey -
Turkey is threatening to use its veto to coerce other NATO members to, in part, to halt support for Kurds in Syria. The Turks have become cozy with Russia in Syria and violated NATO rules by purchasing and receiving Russian S400 air defense systems. The latest misbehavior over allowing Finland and Sweden to join has revived calls for developing a mechanism for expelling an existing NATO member. Introducing such a mechanism might take a while depending on how unanimous other members are to do it.
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Venezuela -
The United States is easing some of its tough sanctions on Venezuela in order to encourage political dialogue between President Nicolas Maduro’s regime and its opponents, a senior official said Tuesday.
“The United States is undertaking a number of measures at the request of the Venezuelan interim government and the Unity platform of opposition parties negotiating with the Venezuelan regime, to support their decision to return to the negotiating table in Mexico City,” the US official said.
One action permits US oil firm Chevron to negotiate with the state oil company PDVSA on the terms of any future activities in Venezuela, the official said.
OBSERVATION - Note last line - this is about oil.
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