________________________________
Wuhan virus -
See North Korean outbreak below
____________________________
Economy -
The retail sector will be in focus this week with retail sales reports scheduled for release Tuesday.
More than 1 million barrels a day of the country’s oil refining capacity — or about 5% overall — has shut since the beginning of the pandemic. Companies have increasingly been relying of overseas refineries to make up the difference as environmental and maintenance costs of older facilities have risen. This has resulted in the inability to keep up with some of the post wuhan demand.
David Beasley, head of the United Nations World Food Program, warns that “Millions of people around the world will die because these ports (Ukrainan) are being blocked…This is a direct consequence of Russian aggression, which can be overcome only together by all Europeans, by the whole free world.”
OBSERVATION - Loss of sunflower oil and grain exports is causing countries to reevaluate restricting exports in anticipation of continued inflation and food security.
______________________________
Biden / Harris watch -
Harris at a loss for words, at a recent speech she got all messed up. - “We will work together, and continue to work together, to address these issues, to tackle these challenges, and to work together as we continue to work operating from the new norms, rules, and agreements, that we will convene to work together...We will work together”
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has hit an all-time low, according to the latest NBC News poll. Just 39% of Americans approve of the Biden’s job as president, compared with 40% in March.
OBSERVATION - NBC’s numbers are likely skewed in favor of biden, but even that special sauce isn’t enough to counter the negative approval ratings.
___________________________
CW2/Domestic violence -
After a string shootings where the perp was a non-white, the let finally got its ‘white’ terrorist this weekend. By all accounts he wasn’t a conservative - openly wrote/spoke against the right, but was a certifiable nut job. He is a Christchurch shooting copycat, identifying the mass murderer as an inspiration and plagiarizing large sections of his hero’s manifesto.
President Joe Biden urged unity Sunday to address the “hate that remains a stain on the soul of America” after a deadly mass shooting at a supermarket in Buffalo, New York
OBSERVATION - The nut job level of this individual hasn’t stopped the left to start crying for gun control. How much traction the killings get is questionable.
Proabort protests with Antifa ‘support’ remained pretty much calm over the weekend. More vandalism reported to pro-life offices and buildings but few attacks on pro-lifers. Continued threats being made by leftists, but little to no traction being gained both on the ground and politically.
___________________________________
POLITICAL FRONT -
Biden Administration informed Congress on Friday that it is about to move five foreign terror groups off the so-called blacklist. The organizations include the Basque separatist group ETA, the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo, the radical Jewish group Kahane Kach, and two Islamic groups that have been active in Israel, the Palestinian territories, and Egypt. biden administration is claiming that these groups are all believed to be defunct and dead.
White House communications director Kate Bedingfield even refuses to refer to the infant formula shortage as a crisis. Many see the administration’s handling of this dumpster fire one more step towards the demolition of the democrats at the midterms.
_____________________________________
Domestic Terror -
This weekend shootings do not appear to be terror related
____________________________________
Strategic Activity / Deployments
Looks like the USS Reagan is put out to sea for operations off the Japanese coast.
_________________________________
China -
China’s economic woes continue, with its economy contracting sharply in April, as Covid outbreaks and lockdowns dragging the industrial and consumer sectors down to the weakest levels since early 2020.
OBSERVATION - This has placed Xi in a kill box of his own makeing with the combination of domestic economy and foreign policy issues hanging over his presidency.
In his recent visit to the Ladakh sector, Indian Army chief Gen Manoj Pande reviewed the security situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in view of the Chinese threat for which the Indian Army has shifted six Divisions which were earlier deployed in counter-terrorism roles and after taking care of Pakistan front.
The Indian Army has been doing rebalancing and realignment of its forces which were earlier more prepared for the Pakistan threat than the challenges faced from the Northern borders. Two divisions (around 35,000 troops) have been feeding up from counter-terrorism roles for looking after the China border deployment. These two divisions will join up with the 3 Division already based there.
OBSERVATION - China continues to build up to control disputed territory with India, and India responds. There will be no resolution on this dispute any time soon as China has also invested a lot of money in infrastructure to support any future conflict.
____________________________________
North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
North Korea State media KCNA said a total of 42 people had died, with 820,620 cases and at least 324,550 under medical treatment only 3 days after the first Covid case was officially acknowledged.
Kim Jong Un criticized his country’s response to a severe COVID outbreak at a politburo meeting Sunday, saying a policy to keep pharmacies open failed and that police failed to properly monitor and manage the situation. Pyongyang as state media says the country is suffering medicine shortages. In response, Kim has ordered the mobilization of soldiers to stabilize medicine supply (ie, control and monitor the distribution)
BTW, North Korea test-fired three short-range ballistic missiles on Thursday, the same day the country announced its COVID-19 outbreak.
OBSERVATION - wuhan is exploding out of NK control and the question is how soon will it impact strategic weapons development and testing. If Kim’s handling of the nation wide famine is any measure, he will maintain the course, counting on the sheeple to comply - as long as he is backed by the military.
__________________________________
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
********
Russian milbloggers have begun commenting on the incompetence of the Russian military. This may fuel burgeoning doubts in Russia about Russia’s prospects in this war and the competence of Russia’s military leaders especially given the tight control of the narrative of Russian news media.
RUMINT -
Russian media sources are claiming that a U.S. Military Commander surrendered to Russian forces from the Azovstal Steel Mill in Mariupol, Ukraine. A photo purported to be U.S. Navy Admiral Eric Olson, has been released allegedly showing the Admiral under arrest by Russian troops.
OBSERVATION - VERY MUCH RUMINT and unconfirmed at this time.
MORE - Russian commanders are slaughtering their own wounded soldiers instead of retrieving them from the battlefield for treatment, Putin’s own troops have said. A lieutenant-colonel was accused of personally shooting dead multiple troops as they lay injured. Captured troops recalled one commander asking a soldier if he could walk after suffering an injury, and when the man replied he could not, the officer killed him instantly.
OBSERVATION - Similar reports are floating around early in the conflict as to the presence of ‘enforcers’ (often chechens) who shot the unwilling.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Meeting of CSTO leaders started in Moscow, putin likely to be twisting arms for these countries to supply men and material for the Ukraine war effort
- In Russia, army enlistment offices have been targeted in arson attacks. Four military draft stations have been set on fire across Russia within just three days.
- British military intelligence sources say Russia may have lost a third of the invasion force it sent into Ukraine as its offensive continues to struggle in the face of stiff resistance. There is no clarification if this is just in deaths alone or includes wounded. Some of the latest estimates of Russian deaths put the number at 25K dead and applying a 1:3 ration, this would project to around 75K wounded. Russian started the operation with about 220K including separatists, and mercenaries.
- Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian military command to amalgamate soldiers from many different elements, including private military companies and proxy militias, into ostensibly regular army units and naval infantry.
- British intelligence reports that Russia is conducting a covert mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who likely have insufficient training to be effective and little motivation to fight.
Economic Impact
- McDonald’s is leaving — not pausing — its Russian operations. It plans to sell its Russian business to a local buyer. It will “de-arch” those restaurants, meaning they will no longer use the McDonald’s name, logo or branding.
- Russian assets of France’s Renault now state property
- Russia’s Gazprom booked no gas for June through the Velke Kapusan at the Slovakia-Ukraine border. Gas flows from Poland’s Yamal pipeline also show no bookings for June. Gazprom said no gas would flow if European countries fail to make payments in rubles.
____________________________________
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers predominant in the 10 day forecast, indicating that off road conditions will get progressively worse.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukrainian airfare assets made a dramatic return to the skys overnight string targets in the Izyum and Kherson areas. Air strikes in the Izyum area are likely associated with the initiation of a Ukrainian counter offensive to roll up that flank of the Russian attack in eastern Ukraine. Fierce artillery and fighting around Severodonetsk.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian army shelled Chernihiv region overnight with mortars near Mykolaivka and Hremyach.
Russian troops attempted to cross the border in Shostka district of Sumy region this morning, withdraw after clash with border guards.
OBSERVATION - Trying to draw Ukrainan forces away from the Donbas region.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Once again, a fluid tactical situation .
Ukrainian forces continued to push Russian units away from Kharkiv on the east and northeast quadrants around the city.
Significant Russian artillery fire, probably in preparation for another attempt on the ground to move forward hit Avdiivka, Toretsk, Lyman, Soledar, Zalizne, Bakhmut, New York, Dibrova, and Bakhmutske using air bombs, air-to-surface missiles, Grad and Tornado multiple rocket launchers.
There is evidence that newly mobilized units from occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts are being put into the Kharkiv region and not being used to support northward attacks from separatist controlled regions.
Ukraine airstrikes hit targets in Russian-controlled settlements near Izyum. This is a bold move given how they have been shepherded away from high ADA areas. In Luhansk Oblast, the railway bridges between Rubizhne and Sieverodonetsk, seized by Russians, were blown up to deter the Russian offensive on Lysychansk and Sieverodonetsk
Ukrainian forces destroyed the dam at the Mironovskyi reservoir, 5 km north of Svitlodarsk, on May 14 causing flooding that will likely slow down Russian advances to Severodonetsk offensive operation to the north.
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Reports that Russian is using incendiary ammunition against Azovstal as bombing and artillery strikes continue.
Russian forces continued their efforts to reach Zaporizhia City and Slovyansk from Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault southwest of Donetsk City, likely to secure the N15 highway to Zaporizhia City
Crimea Front -
Ukrainian aviation and artillery conducted 100 strikes against Russian positions in Kherson region, including at Chornobaivka airfield. Ukrainian combat aviation destroyed a crossing over Ingulets river.
Russian forces appear to be fortifying their positions between Kherson and Mykoliev and other positions towards the east. This indicates that they are not planning of striking to the west any time soon, but want to make sure Ukrainan counter attacks cannot reach supply lines coming from Crimea.
Russian strategic aviation launched missile strikes against Odesa region, including tourism infrastructure and the damaged bridge over Dnistrovsky Estuary.
Western Ukraine -
Lviv region was struck by several missiles.
Russian Territory -
What appeared to be surface to surface missile launches were observed from the Belgorod area overnight.
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - Ukraine shifting offensive operations southward toward Izyum, Russia continues to struggle in eastern Ukraine with limited successes, but at high cost of men and material. The Russians appear to be trying to beat the clock before the Ukrainan Izyum offensive cuts supply lines.
Amazing, how after 80 days of total war Russia still has no aerial superiority. Russia doesn’t fly sorties over western Ukraine, but fires cruse missiles from over Russian territory. Ground assault aircraft operate over mostly friendly skies. Another interesting note is that the big Russian missile assault of over a week ago has piddled out, both in effectiveness and quantity. This is likely to be the result of growing shortages of missiles as well as poor BDA cycle assessments for follow on targeting. Easier to target civilian / residential areas.
Monitoring how the Izyum offensive is shaping up and where the focus of the attack will take place. If Ukrainan air strikes are any indicator, one main axis could be 65 km north of Izyum. An eastward push could cut off a couple railroads and road networks supplying Russian forces in the Izyum area. Likely this assault would have a northward component, to link up with Ukraine forces coming southward from Kharkiv. This offensive has the potential to be the big game changer, eliminating Russian hopes of a Donbas success and seriously damaging a large number of Russian units assigned to the operation.
Russia faces only bad choices in its assault on Severodonetsk. Lack of maneuver is forcing them to make frontal assaults on the well prepared Ukrainan defensive positions, with its corresponding high casualties of men and equipment.
___________________________________
Belarus -
Lukashenka accused the West in “conducting a full-scale hybrid aggression against Belarus and Russia”
______________________________________
Europe / NATO General -
Russia aircraft violated Finnish airspace near Lake Karelia and Finnish F-18 aircraft scrambled to intercept.
____________________________________
Lebanon -
Election results are being tabulated, Hezebollah backed candidates in some areas appear to have been defeated.
__________________________________
Syria -
Turkish air force have bombed more than 50 towns and villages in northeast Syria during the last 72 hours. Artillery continues almost daily. This is all targeting Kurdish forces
__________________________________
Turkey -
See Syria above.
______________________________________
p
________________________________
Globalism / Great Reset -
In a post from a couple days ago, I noted that WEF/GGR supporter Blackrock is heavily involved in Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG). The link below goes to an opinion piece that explains what ESG is in a little better way than I can.
Exerpts -
“Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing is an investment strategy you can use to put your money to work with companies that strive to make the world a better place.”
“Few knew what the initials “ESG” meant 5 years ago, but it is well-known today among corporate investors. One hundred and eighty CEOs recently signed a Business Roundtable statement on business purpose. They have agreed to move away from trying to improve business and the investment outcome for its stockholders, focusing instead on goals involving political objectives.”
“Whoever gave banks this sort of control over the world to collude to reshape economies and energy infrastructure? The answer is the notorious World Economic Forum whose rich members meet annually in Davos, Switzerland, to discuss taking over the world under the leadership of Klaus Schwab, author of the now-infamous Great Reset, which describes how these jet setters hope to accomplish this.”
_____________________________
Economy -
In a move to ease a nationwide shortage of infant formula, the Food and Drug Administration on Monday said it has agreed with Abbott Nutrition on a plan to reopen the company’s manufacturing plant in Sturgis, Michigan, after it was shut down following the discovery of a deadly bacteria inside.
The FDA also announced Monday it would make it easier for global manufacturers to sell their product inside the U.S. so long as they meet certain criteria.
OBSERVATION - It will take about 2 months before product from this plant reaches store shelves. The “bacteria” inside the is not the same as reportedly affected TWO infants. FDA is not reporting on the substantial numbers of infants harmed due to the lack of formula. See Political Front below on a key point - shut down of ONE plant did not cause the loss of 40-50% of the baby formula across the nation.
The amount of crude oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to 538 million barrels, the lowest since 1987. The amount is expected to continue even lower as the 1 million barrel / day withdrawals continue for the next several months.
______________________________
Invasion of Illegals -
Illegal immigrants have only limited grounds to appeal deportation orders to the federal courts, the Supreme Court ruled Monday. The 5-4 decision makes it more difficult for those involved in deportation proceedings to get a federal court to review factual determinations that were made by an immigration court about the procedure.
______________________________
POLITICAL FRONT -
Conspiracy theory - Is the baby formula crisis a response by the deep state to the impending reversal of Rowe V Wade? How does 40-50% of the baby formula suddenly disappear from store shelves in such a short time frame? Indeed, our dystopian leaders are telling us that this whole mess is the fault of one plant in Sturgis. I don’t think so.
_____________________________________
Strategic Activity / Deployments
Pres. Biden signed an order authorizing the military to deploy hundreds of Special Operations forces inside Somalia—reversing the decision by Pres. Trump to withdraw nearly all 700 ground troops stationed there.
OBSERVATION - No real reason for us to stick our noses back into this quagmire - except it is useful to distract our Special Ops outside the country.
_________________________________
North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
__________________________________
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - Ukraine still stands now in the third month of the war
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, it is appearing that the offensive is losing traction and falling into many of the same errors that plagued the attempt to seize Kyiv.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and wide spread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
********
Russia is calling the “surrender” of the Ukraine forces at the Azovstal steel plant its greatest victory of the war. It is neglecting the fact that this was a pyrrhic victory where an outnumbered Ukrainan force tied up and chewed up a numerically superior Russian force for nearly 80 days.
Following up on his threat to Finland, videos show a battery of Iskander ballistic missile launchers - which can carry nukes - moving towards the Finnish border. Footage posted on Russian social media claimed the rockets were heading towards Vyborg - a city located just 30 miles from Finland and 135 miles from Helsinki, putting the capital within easy range.
RUMINT -
President putin is determining movement of Russian soldiers, say sources, as head of UK armed forces says Ukraine is winning. His involvement is reported to be down to the operational and tactical decisions “at the level of a colonel or brigadier”, according to western military sources.
The Russian president is helping determine the movement of forces in the Donbas, they added, where last week the invaders suffered a bloody defeat as they tried on multiple occasions to cross a strategic river in the east of Ukraine.
The sources added that Putin is still working closely with Gen Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the Russian armed forces, in contrast to claims made by Ukraine last week that the military chief had been sidelined.
Logistics -
- Russia received delivery of a small number of T90 tanks for deployment to the Ukraine battle zone. Their most advanced tank, the quick destruction of one of the first units to the battle zone was blown up by Ukraine forces within days fo the announcement.
____________________________________
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Rain/showers predominant in the 10 day forecast, indicating that off road conditions will get progressively worse.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
8 killed, 12 wounded as result of missile strike in Desna, Chernihiv region.
Explosions reported at Seredyna-Buda in Sumy region.
The Russian army shelled Okhtyrka Sumy region in the early morning, at least 5 were wounded – region official
In Chernihiv Oblast, approximately 3,500 buildings are estimated to have been destroyed or damaged... 80% of the damage has been caused to residential buildings...The scale of this damage indicates Russia’s preparedness to use artillery against inhabited areas.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Once again, a fluid tactical situation .
Russia attempted to move the forces into Donbas from multiple axises, but generally faced failure with very little to show for their work. A lot of the action overnight consisted of artillery strikes into areas facing Russian ground attacks, in an attempt to soften up the defenses.
Very little fighting coming out of the Izyum area, more intense fighting observed in Lyman, Bakhmut, Kurakhove, and Shandrygolove.
There are but reliable reports that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Donets river near Kharkiv and taken up positions in 2 villages. This is important in that it allows further attacks eastward to threaten key Russian supply lines.
Russian resistance appears to be trying to stiffen up rather than a withdrawal under fire as observed in the north. This may well be due to the fact that if Russia cedes very more ground then Belgorod comes into easy range of Ukraine tube and rocket artillery.
Russian troops shelled hospital in Severodonetsk and conducted 2 airstrikes in Popasna districts, in total 10 dead and 3 wounded. Non-stop shelling tonight in Hirske and Zolote, NW of Popasna with at least 20 houses destroyed.
The Ukrainian counter offensive against the Izyum salient is still developing. Ukrainian forces hit a Russian ammo depots in town of Izyum, destroying a significant stockpile of ammunition.
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
The Ukrainian military says the defenders of Mariupol have ended their mission, after hundreds of soldiers left the Azovstal steel plant. More than 260 fighters were taken to Russian-controlled territory late on Monday. They are expected to be exchanged for Russian prisoners of war.
General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine: Mariupol’ garrison has accomplished their mission. Deputy minister of Defense of Ukraine confirmed evacuation of wounded defenders of Azovstal to Novoazovsk(53) and Olenivka(211) for later prisoners exchange.
Russian and Separatist forces are working at the Port of Mariupol to establish shipping routes from Russia. The Donetsk People’s Republic claimed that proxy militia will de-mine the port by May 25. This would create a shorter supply line to forces attacking northward into the Donbas region.
Crimea Front -
Ukrainian aviation and artillery conducted 100 strikes against Russian positions in Kherson. Ukrainian forces also reportedly struck Russian ammunition and field bases in central and northern Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition depot in Chornobaivka again, likely near the Kherson City Airport. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also destroyed a Russian field depot on the southeastern border of Mykolaiv Oblast.
Western Ukraine -
One of most massive missile attacks against L’viv overnight with 2 waves, some missile were shot down. The missiles were launched from Belarusian airspace just after midnight local time. The mayor of Lviv confirmed rocket attacks on the city. A total of 8 explosions are reported.
Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report
OUTLOOK -
BLUF - No significant changes. The “surrender” of forces at the Azovstal steel plant is nearly complete, but they served their purpose in trying down a considerable number of Russian /Separatist forces, chewing them up and keeping them from reinforcing attacks northward into Donbas or westward towards Odesa.
The Ukraine offensive north and eastward from Kharkiv shows no sign of slowing down. The fact that they were successful in crossing the Donets river has opened up new options for the offensive. They also avoided the debacle the Russias experienced last week. Likely actions on the east side of the Donets would be to roll up towards the Russia border and seized control of a major road crossing point from Russia moving material and men to Donbas operation. As secondary operation would be to push further east to secure the crossing site.
Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine will continue to focus on trapping ever smaller pieces of Ukraine forces. They will apply as much artillery as they can to soften Ukraine positions and provide cover for the ground assault but still appear to lack coordination with ground forces during the assault.
It is looking like Russia is trying to secure territorial gains in the Crimea front for part i of the Russian ‘victory’ conditions, lacking sufficient forces to push towards Odesa and north in support of the Donbas operation.
Separatist and mercenary forces will continue to under perform and unable to coordinate attacks northward towards Izyum.
Russia will continue to launch missile attacks on central and western Ukraine but those attacks will come in surges and mostly targeting civilian / residential areas. Their effectiveness in cutting off Ukraine resupply efforts is essentially nil.
___________________________________
Europe / NATO General -
Turkey’s president has restated his opposition to Finland and Sweden joining Nato - just hours after they said they would seek membership. Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the two Nordic nations should not bother sending delegations to convince Turkey, a key Nato member, of their bids. He is angered by what he sees as their willingness to host Kurdish militants. Sweden suspended arms sales to Turkey three years ago, following Ankara’s military intervention in Syria. And according to the official Turkish news agency, both Finland and Sweden have rejected dozens of requests to extradite Kurdish militants who Turkey describes as terrorists.
Without the support of all Nato members, Sweden and Finland cannot join the military alliance.
OBSERVATION - Turkish islamic radicalism has placed them increasingly at odds against the rest of NATO over the past decade. Turkey is angling for some sort of concession - most likely changes to weapons denial after they decided to purchase the Russian S400 system.
The Russia threat has even affected the most neutral of countries. Switzerland’s defense ministry is tilting closer to NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, putting its fabled neutral status to test.
____________________________________
Pakistan -
In Pakistan, former PM Imran Khan is fighting back against his removal from office by an April 3 rd non-confidence vote in parliament. He has called for two million Pakistanis to assemble in the capital on May 20th to demonstrate the extent of his popular support. Khan accuses the United States and the military of conspiring with opposition politicians to gain enough votes to remove him. Khan has proved to be a disruptive but revealing politician. While annoying the political and military establishment groups, he retains widespread support from dissatisfied Pakistanis.
The main reason for some of Khan’s political allies to turn against him was economic. High unemployment (nearly 10 percent) and inflation (14 percent and rising) and a collapse of the local currency to a record 193 rupees per dollar are the result of endemic corruption and excessive military spending.
OBSERVATION - Internal strife and potential for civil war in a nuclear armed Islamic country is very serious.
___________________________________
Israel -
Russian forces appear to have opened fire on Israeli jets with advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missiles when Israel reportedly attacked targets in northwestern Syria last week, according to news reports. This could signal a significant shift in Moscow’s attitude to Israel. If confirmed, this would mark the first time such an incident has taken place.
OBSERVATION - This is serious. Israel and Russia had set up a sort of a notification system so that Israel would avoid Russian manned S300 systems when conducing their raids on Hezebollah facilities. Hezebollah had increasingly placed its facilities near Syrian ADA to gain thier coverage / support. Russia had forbidden this action. Israel in the future will not hesitate to strike Russian ADA if they target and shoot at their aircraft again, greatly raising the risk of escalating conflict with Russia.
____________________________________
Lebanon -
Hezbollah appears to have retained its parliamentary seats, while some of its allies lose theirs; Saudi-backed LF party wins several new seats. Turnout was low, just 41 percent — eight points lower than in 2018, in the general election Sunday, the first since the Mediterranean country was plunged into a deep economic crisis that has stoked popular fury with the hereditary and graft-tainted ruling class.
The Lebanese Forces (LF) of former warlord Samir Geagea, which has strong ties with Saudi Arabia, won several new seats and should emerge as the largest Christian party.
New opposition candidates also booked some gains, pushing forward the agenda of a cross-sectarian protest movement that erupted in late 2019 against a ruling elite widely seen as inept and corrupt.
OBSERVATION - Minor shift into an Anti-Hezbollah mode. Sets the stage for future parliamentary feuding and more internal dissent that will result in more of the same for the Lebanese people.
__________________________________
Misc of Note -
Just going to file this here for record. Sri Lanka is a poor third world country and hardly a threat to the US. However, Sri Lanka has descended into real chaos. Hungry residents are literally preying on wealthy residents and officials, burning their homes and cars. The police have open fire to kill with more than 200 people have already been killed.
This is a study in human behavior. After the 2019 BLM/Antifa riots we saw how segments of our society can erupt into violence - we are not immune to similar behavior as is occurring in Sri Lanka. Now, two years later, very similar conditions are building here in the US - with gas and food prices surging and baby formula scarce on store shelves, how much longer will our society be able to restrain similar behavior?
The progressive / socialist left in this country have been waging war against it through the proliferation of multiple ‘crisises’. The food and economic vectors of their attack IMHO are converging with others to hit at a period before the midterm and they are aware that their progressive polices are in the electorate crosshairs. This has brought many theories of biden declaring an ‘emergency’ of some sort, even to the point of martial law, to tip the scales and allow the democrats to retail control of congress. I normally stay away from conspiracy theories, but I cannot ignore that conditions leading up to the midterms are coming apart at the seams quicker and quicker. I am becoming more convinced that biden’s poor management of issues is deliberate and not just the results of klutzy decisions.
Go forth in the coming months with your eyes wide open.
____________________________________
Black Swans -
It is now clear that La Nina is not going away, and may hang around into next winter. Cold water is entrenched over the central and eastern tropical Pacific (the definition of La Nina) and the latest forecast model runs suggest a continuation into fall.
But first, the bottom line: the summer effects of La Nina are modest, but will push the western side of our region towards cooler than normal conditions. In contrast, West Coast precipitation is hardly changed…perhaps slightly drier on the western sides of the Cascades. I suspect this is because the colder water works against thunderstorms. Interestingly, La Nina seems to have more summer impact over the Midwest U.S. resulting in hotter, drier conditions.