(CNN)When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably -- and immediately -- ask some version of this question: "Is he going to run again? And can he win?" The "he" there -- just in case you've spent the last six years on another planet -- is Donald Trump. And the answers to those questions are "probably yes" and "definitely." As in, yes, Trump is probably going to run for president again in 2024. And, yes, he would have a very real chance of winning.