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There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the center of each. Moreover, none of them is amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy. The first potential shock stems from the Sino-American trade and currency war, which escalated earlier this month when President Donald Trump’s administration threatened additional tariffs on Chinese exports, and formally labeled China a currency manipulator. The second concerns the slow-brewing cold war between the U.S. and China over technology. In...

Economist Nouriel Roubini is now actively proposing the ECB enter the global beggar-thy-neighbor currency wars as a solution to the eurozone crisis. As reported by Yahoo! Fiance ,Roubini stated ECB must cut rates or risk crisis again The bank would act eventually to avoid the recession getting worse, but risked doing "too little, too late," Roubini said in an interview with CNN's Nina dos Santos. "They have to cut the policy rate, they have to stimulate the economy, they have to try to weaken the value of the euro," said Roubini, who was credited with predicting the financial crisis of...

Two days of weakness in stocks after the Fed hinted it might “vary the pace of asset purchases” has some folks ready to declare the bull market over and done. “Exit any and all bullish constructed positions and rush to the sidelines," declares veteran trader and newsletter writer Dennis Gartman. Others, including Pimco’s Mohammed El-Arian, “Gloom Boom and Doom” author Marc Faber and hedge fund manager Doug Kass have made similar comments in recent days, albeit sans Gartman’s dramatics. Related: PIMCO's El-Erian: Maintaining High Equity Prices Will Be Hard Given this backdrop and with the economy facing myriad headwinds from...

U.S. stocks have risen in recent years but mainly due to the Federal Reserve's moves to stimulate the economy. The Fed may move again to prop up the country and stave off recession, but results will be weak and stock prices will plummet when the monetary sugar rush ends, said New York University economist Nouriel Roubini. Previous calls for U.S. gross domestic product growth of around 3 percent this year have been off, with forecasts being slashed. "The first-half growth rate looks set to come in closer to 1.5 percent at best, even below 2011’s dismal 1.7 percent," Roubini wrote...

"Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini, says the "perfect storm" scenario he forecast for the global economy earlier this year is unfolding right now as growth slows in the U.S., Europe as well as China. In May, Roubini predicted four elements - stalling growth in the U.S., debt troubles in Europe, a slowdown in emerging markets, particularly China, and military conflict in Iran - would come together in to create a storm for the global economy in 2013.

A Global Perfect Storm 15 June 2012 NEW YORK – Dark, lowering financial and economic clouds are, it seems, rolling in from every direction: the eurozone, the United States, China, and elsewhere. Indeed, the global economy in 2013 could be a very difficult environment in which to find shelter. For starters, the eurozone crisis is worsening, as the euro remains too strong, front-loaded fiscal austerity deepens recession in many member countries, and a credit crunch in the periphery and high oil prices undermine prospects of recovery. The eurozone banking system is becoming balkanized, as cross-border and interbank credit lines are...

ROUBINI: Dark Clouds Are Gathering Around The World Mamta Badkar June 15, 2012, 10:15 AM Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini is once again warning of a perfect global storm in 2013. In his latest Project Syndicate column Roubini warns of dark "financial and economic clouds" from Europe, the U.S., China and the Middle East. First, he says the eurozone crisis is worsening, the fiscal and sovereign debt crisis and the problems in its banking sector are worsening. In fact he says, eurozone might need a bailout of its banks but also a sovereign bailout. "As a result, disorderly breakup of the...

THE SEEDS OF DYSTOPIA: Roubini & Co. Scare The Crap Out Of Davos Henry Blodget Jan. 25, 2012, 7:53 AM From Nouriel Roubini's yfrog page An uplifting post-lunch session at Davos entitled GLOBAL RISKS 2012: THE SEEDS OF DYSTOPIA... Professor Nouriel Roubini's on the panel, along with the head of Amnesty International and a few other non-profit organizations. Some key points made by the panelists: * Two of the panelists confessed that they had to look up the word "dystopia" when they heard the title of the session. It means the opposite of utopia. * Roubini thinks the term accurately...

Nouriel Roubini’s lapse in Standards Forbes Dec 2, 2011 – 10:52 AM ET | Last Updated: Dec 2, 2011 11:06 AM ET By Ralph Benko “It’s not even a theory; it is a theology.” So Nouriel Roubini, with his best Strangelovian inflection, describes the gold standard to Yahoo Finance’s The Daily Ticker, and in doing so displays shocking ignorance of the gold standard and either the work of Ben Bernanke or a presumption that the rest of the world is ignorant. In slurring supporters of gold as “lunatics and hacks,” Roubini falls into lockstep with other leading defenders of the...

Roubini Nailed The Euro Crisis Six Years Ago, And Was Told To Shut Up By Italy's Finance Minister Gus Lubin Nov. 11, 2011, 11:54 AM ROUBINI: There's Only One Thing That Will Stop The 'Upcoming Disaster' In Europe Excellent pickup from Adam Button at ForexLive... Six years ago Nouriel Roubini was speaking at Davos when he was interrupted by a cry of "Go back to Turkey!" by Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti. Here's what Roubini was saying that pissed off the Italian: My current concerns are that, while EMU has lead to a process of convergence of nominal variables (inflation,...

Nouriel Roubini Held A Party For Clients At His Apartment Tonight, And This Is What He Told Them Joe Weisenthal Nov. 3, 2011, 9:01 PM Nouriel Roubini held a party/lecture at his apartment exclusively for clients (many of them hedge funders) of his firm Roubini.com. He spent about 30 minutes discussing the big issues of the day: The US economy, China, and of course, the biggie, the Eurozone crisis. Here's the gist of what he told them. When it comes to Europe, frankly, he said, "Our view is very bearish." Europe is a slow motion train wreck and there's a...

Nouriel Roubini is calling it this morning, following a bout of dismal economic data around the world. Europe and the U.S. are "effectively in recession" and there's nothing policy makers can do to save them. @Nouriel tweets: Economy already in recession. Whatever the Fed does now is too little too late UK in double dip @MarkitEconomics: CBI Trends total orders at -9 in. UK Man PMI highlights real weakness in order books twitpic.com/6onoto EZ in recession @MarkitEconomics: Flash Eurozone Composite PMI comes in below consensus for the 4th time in past 5 mths twitpic.com/6oneor China slowing @MarkitEconomics: release saw HSBC...

“The U.S. can pay any debt because we can always print more money.”–Alan Greenspan Meet the Press August 7, 2011 Last week, Nouriel Roubini released a paper, “A Radical Policy Response to the Rising Risks of a Depression and Financial Crisis.” He writes: “Data suggest that developed and emerging markets alike are heading for a massive slowdown in growth, with advanced economies already slumping to stall speed.” Roubini is right, but for the wrong reasons. Government intervention is the root cause of the financial crisis and the maladies identified by Roubini. Many of his proposals, such as debt restructuring and...

Roubini Sees 60% Chance of A Double Dip in 2012, China and Brazil Also at Risk EconMatters | Sep. 1, 2011, 7:00 PM Party heardy NYU economist Nouriel Roubini went on Bloomberg TV on Aug. 31 to give his latest prediction of the global economy: "We’ve reached a stall speed in the economy, not just in the U.S., but in the euro zone and the UK. We see probably a 60 percent probability of recession next year, and, unfortunately, we’re running out of policy tools.....and sovereigns cannot bail out their own distressed banks because they are distressed themselves." Regarding markets...

<p>The world’s developed economies are trapped at the “stall speed” of low growth and need to have greater fiscal stimulus and less austerity to kick-start growth, leading economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC Friday.</p> <p>Speaking at the Ambrosetti Forum on the shores of Lake Como, near Milan, Roubini said in an interview: “We are in a worse situation than we were in 2008. This time around we have fiscal austerity and banks that are being cautious.”</p>

Nouriel Roubini "We're Going Into A Recession" Economics / Double Dip Recession Sep 01, 2011 - 01:37 AM Nouriel Roubini spoke to Bloomberg TV's Margaret Brennan today, giving his latest forecast for the U.S. economy, the European debt crisis and economic challenges in China. Roubini told Bloomberg TV, "we're going into a recession based on my numbers" and that "we are running out of policy tools" as the U.S. and European governments no longer have the resources to bail out their troubled banks. Roubini on what the Fed could do at this point to avoid a recession: "We've reached a...

Gerald Celente Disses Roubini After Moving 100% Into Gold Gus Lubin Aug. 30, 2011, 6:21 AM Image: KWN Notorious trend forecaster Gerald Celente has been fairly accurate of late, predicting a double dip and revolutions around the world. He drops some more wisdom in an interview with King World News: “What did Roubini say? Gold would be lucky to go to $1,100 an ounce. Where is it now? Flirting between the high $1,780s and $1,900s. There are a number of people like myself and others that believe it’s going much higher. You know I used to be in Swiss Francs...

In a clip from his interview with WSJ's Simon Constable, Dr. Nouriel Roubini insists that it was the policies of George W. Bush that caused the current U.S. economic crisis.

Soft Patch Delusion Is Dashed: Roubini Published: Monday, 8 Aug 2011 | 5:11 AM ET By: Patrick Allen CNBC EMEA Head of News Influential economist Nouriel Roubini has warned hopes that the recent slowdown was temporary have been dashed and predicted the US and other advanced economies will have a second “severe recession ”. Writing in Monday’s Financial Times, the founder of Roubini Global Economics said: “America’s recent data have been lousy: there has been little job creation, weak growth and flat consumption and manufacturing production. Housing remains depressed. Consumer, business and investor confidence has been falling, and will now...

On Twitter, Nouriel Roubini declares that the latest currency interventions from Switzerland and Japan represent the start of QE3, ultimately ending in more Fed easing.