Posted on 09/06/2011 6:25:46 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Roubini Sees 60% Chance of A Double Dip in 2012, China and Brazil Also at Risk
EconMatters | Sep. 1, 2011, 7:00 PM
Party heardy NYU economist Nouriel Roubini went on Bloomberg TV on Aug. 31 to give his latest prediction of the global economy:
"We’ve reached a stall speed in the economy, not just in the U.S., but in the euro zone and the UK. We see probably a 60 percent probability of recession next year, and, unfortunately, we’re running out of policy tools.....and sovereigns cannot bail out their own distressed banks because they are distressed themselves."
Regarding markets and QE3
"There’ll be more monetary easing and quantitative easing done by the Fed and other central banks, but the credit channel is broken. ...the market is rallying on the expectation of QE3, but I think it will be a short-lived rally. The macro data, ISM, employment, and housing numbers will come out worse and worse, the market will start to correct again." /snip
"I see a hard landing in China as the likely event, not this year or next year, but by 2013 when this over investment move will go bust..... Fixed investment has gone now to 50% of GDP. this over investment boom is going to go into a bust in a hard landing.” "[Chinese banks] have several trillion dollars yuans and we estimate 30% of these loans will go into default and become underperforming. The heat will be on the Chinese banks.” After the C, he then went on to cover the B in BRIC,
"Brazil has its own other domestic problems, if they do the structural reform that’s needed. It could have high potential growth, but the question is whether the new president will be willing to do those structural reforms
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
P!
BREAKING NEWS: We have never come out of the recession.
You cannot go into a second recession from a full blown depression.
LLS
Economissed EXPECTS recession?...................
And yet a lot of people still think its Bush’s fault. That may be whave saves Obama.
There is a trench deep and large enough to hold all of them. Under the Pacific Ocean.:-)
That’s about right. 60% chance of a double dip; 40% chance that Obama will not be a viable candidate or even a candidate at all and the economy will recover in anticipation of restored freedom.
BREAKING NEWS: The US is in a depression. The whole word follows in three years.
Roubini, like Jim Cramer and Warren Buffet, are living proof that you can develop a skill for investment success and become stinking filthy rich without the vaguest notion of what drives the entrepreneurial spirit on Main Street or what drives consumer confidence.
They should be respected for their ability to make a return on investment. We should tune them the hell out when it comes to macro economic / political statements.
I like Dr. Doom, but if you take out gov’t spending, we never came out of the recession.
bump de bump.
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