Nouriel Roubini Held A Party For Clients At His Apartment Tonight, And This Is What He Told Them

TBI ^ | 11-3-2011 | Joe Weisenthal

[blam]

Nouriel Roubini Held A Party For Clients At His Apartment Tonight, And This Is What He Told Them

Joe Weisenthal
Nov. 3, 2011, 9:01 PM

Nouriel Roubini held a party/lecture at his apartment exclusively for clients (many of them hedge funders) of his firm Roubini.com.

He spent about 30 minutes discussing the big issues of the day: The US economy, China, and of course, the biggie, the Eurozone crisis.

Here's the gist of what he told them.

When it comes to Europe, frankly, he said, "Our view is very bearish." Europe is a slow motion train wreck and there's a "significant risk of a Eurozone breakup." This doesn't mean Greece and Portugal leaving, it means Spain and Italy ultimately leaving as well, which would mean the whole thing is toast.

And if the Eurozone breaks up "everything around the world goes sour."

The fundamental problem -- which is something he laid out in a note to clients this week -- the matter of flows. While Europe might be able to address some "stock" problems (the size of the debt), there's no answer to the matter of growth and trade deficits, which the periphery countries are consistently running.

So the basic strategy of the IMF/Germany is this: Keep Greece on life support long enough for a big bazooka to save Italy and Spain, at which point, when it's obvious that austerity doesn't work (which everyone knows) then, perhaps in a year from now, you let Greece default. The hope is that Spain and Italy are okay by then. Roubini is, not surprisingly, skeptical.

There's only one strategy that might work: Periphery reforms and the core engages in fiscal stimulus and more monetary easing, in which case you might get the kind of balanced adjustment that would work.

(snip)

[Maceman]

Nouriel Roubini Held A Party For Clients At His Apartment Tonight, And This Is What He Told Them

Doesn't sound like much of a party.

[TexasTransplant]

I drank some lawnmower beer with a couple of friends tonight and held my little pinky out twice while tipping the long neck.

TT

[ken21]

Biblical—

delays the end times.

[El Cid]

I drank some lawnmower beer with a couple of friends tonight and held my little pinky out twice while tipping the long neck.

Hah! Sounds like your party was more fun ... and I don't drink (alcohol).

[Pigsley]

I’ve learned a lot from FR...the last reply I got explained that the $$$ dudes are going for the last drink at the trough.

I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed...but I see this, too.

Thought this was going to happen 2 weeks ago...then a few days ago: The Greeks going all Democratic! Oh, golly, now that vote won’t happen.

From a dullard like me: The $$$ fellers are being greedy...yet again...They are upping this scheme one more time.

I’m torn between being laughing at this or...well...what is the difference of laughing? Sad? Yeah...I am sad.

This is not a house of cards anymore...it’s more akin to the little, tiny kids throwing a can of Pick Up Sticks.

Buy some food and water. What could it hurt?

[DrDavid]

when it's obvious that austerity doesn't work (which everyone knows)

How does anybody know that government "austerity" (cutting spending) doesn't work? It has not been tried in the last 80 years.

[REDWOOD99]

A lefty publication quoting Dr. I Was Right Once.

[psjones]

Seems Papandreou announced the referendum vote because the opposition was not agreeing to the bailout plan. So, in the end they had too choose, either accept the bailout and stay in the euro or refuse it and be on your own. Look how quickly they agreed once they understood there were consequences to turning down the conditions. Beggers can’t be choosers.

[TexasTransplant]

I drank Lawnmower Beer ... so the amount of alcohol is suspect (light beer)

It’s hanging that little pinky out that gives you the whole “High Class, I know Everything” believability factor ... then talk like you run the place ... thank everyone for showing up and then don’t burp (or fart) for maybe 15 minutes ...

Where the Hell is the NY Times when I Party?

TT

[Batrachian]

Mark my words, Greece will be bailed out, for no other reason than the Eurotrash bureaucrats in Brussels don't want to see their great experiment, and all their power with it, go up in smoke.

So what if the German people don't want to pay for lazy Greek socialists? Let them keep their noses to the grindstone and their mouths shut (or maybe Germany hasn't been completely neutered?).

[TwoSwords]

It may be just me but I don’t think Germans have been as neutered as your average American. The last 4 yrs of America show us Americans as mesmerized. I don’t know of a better word to put it. We’re unable to defend ourselves from our politicians.

[the invisib1e hand]

the union is dead long live the union.

A party for hedgers in roubini's apartment. and after he talked, the strippers and coke dealers showed up.

[Mike Darancette]

Thought this was going to happen 2 weeks ago...then a few days ago: The Greeks going all Democratic! Oh, golly, now that vote won’t happen.

The Greek government made a deal to put itself deeper in debt and further lower the standard of living of the Greek people all to the further benefit of Germany, France and the other EUropean countries.

Next it was decided that this should be put to a vote of the Greek People. Then I guess the the EUropeans made the Greek President an offer he couldn't refuse and the vote is now cancelled. I'm surprised that the Greek people haven't hung this guy by his heels from a lamppost.

Obama must be so jealous.

[MrEdd]

Here is a strategy that will work and likely can't be countered.

People in the US encourage those we know in Europe to continue to borrow, and spend and buy with money they don’t have because a collapse of the EU will put the world in a far better place eight to ten years from now than a stodgy socialist zombie that continues to blunder a long.

The EU isn't savable long term. That is why the hard left threw everything they had into Obama even though they haven't the where withal to hold the US militarily or politically at this time. It was now or never for them.

[Freddd]

A party for hedgers in roubini’s apartment. and after he talked, the strippers and coke dealers showed up.
—

The article wasn’t about Obama, was it?

[VanShuyten]

Actually, the core Euro countries are doing Greece a favor by propping them up. If Greece defaults on its bonds, then the other governments take a small hit (the German gov’t has about $50 billion dollars in Greek bonds), their economies aren't affected by Greek products, and they won't be supporting Greek government payments to Greek public employees and retirees. The other Europeans aren't responsible for the raising or lowering of the Greek standard of living. That's for the Greeks to figure out.

[buffaloguy]

I have a friend who has lived in Germany for 25 years and she reports that they have been neutered.

They don’t want any change in their lives. Ever. For any reason.

[TwoSwords]

If you were asked to describe, let’s say, just caucasian Americans could you put them in one category? Not hardly.
I would humbly say that your friend runs in certain circles.
Germany may have been diluted but I, for one, still hold their martial abilities in great respect. When their comfort ends they’ll revert to their innate pedigree. They’re taking over Europe financially. You think this was an accident?