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The OPEC 2015 World Oil Outlook came out a few days ago. They basically produce two outlooks, a medium term outlook to 2020 and a long term outlook to 2040. I found their medium term outlook pessimistic in some cases too optimistic in others. But I found their long term outlook to be wildly optimistic… in most cases. In all cases below I chart crude when it is available and “liquids” only when no other option is available. The data is in million barrels per day.

Oil futures prices are below $38 but there is a glimmer of hope in EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released today–world consumption increased in November and supply fell. OPEC did what everyone expected last week–nothing–and oil markets reacted badly. Brent futures fell 15% from $47.44 before the OPEC meeting on Friday (December 4) to $40.25 today (December 8). I have been saying that oil prices have been too high based on fundamentals and need to move lower in order for oil markets to balance. Now we may be seeing the beginnings of that trend. In November, world liquids supply fell...

Saudi Arabia might just bust OPEC by keeping its taps open, but right now the Kingdom's main concern is strangling American shale production. Read: Markets had been expecting Opec to announce a new ceiling on production after last Friday's meeting, but analysts at Barclays said the lack of any curbs in its announcement was a sign of discord. "Past communiques have at least included statements to adhere, strictly adhere, or maintain output in line with the production target. This one glaringly did not. " they said. Saudi Arabia needs oil prices of $100 a barrel to balance its budget, but...

Get ready for some bad news and red ink. With the bulk of quarterly earnings reports in the energy industry yet to be announced, there are already $6.5 billion worth of asset write-downs, according to Bloomberg. And that could be just the tip of the iceberg. A Barclays’ assessment last week predicted $20 billion in impairment charges from just six companies. Write-downs occur when the expected future cash flow from an asset falls sufficiently that a company has to report that the asset has lost some of its value. With oil prices half of what they were from mid-2014, oil...

Much has been written about the mounting pile of debt for U.S. oil companies (not to mention the well-known Brazilian oil giant). Not that long ago, many oil and gas companies secured at least a part of their revenue by hedging contracts. Bloomberg already reported in June that many of these companies saw their artificial safety nets vanishing as oil prices failed to recover. One month later, we heard such morale boosting terms as ‘frack now, pay later,’ which were merely a bold move by struggling oil services companies to encourage cash strapped oil and gas companies to continue operations....

Cheap oil is creating headaches for the Wall Street firms that bankrolled America's oil boom. That's because the crash in oil prices is putting energy companies under financial stress. Oil revenue has dried up, yet these companies are still saddled with tons of debt. America's largest banks are now raising red flags about the health of those loans. For the second-straight quarter, the banks have warned investors about an uptick in troubled energy loans. Banks "are going to lose money on the loans they've made. That's pretty evident -- whether oil prices go to $30 or $80 a barrel," said...

There is still very little clarity on the state of the oil markets, and the recent rally did nothing to dispel that fact. Still there is a bit of consensus around the notion that the rally will be short-lived. Just a few short weeks ago it appeared that oil had hit bottom. After briefly dipping below $40 per barrel, speculators began taking more bullish positions on oil, and prices leveled off in the mid-$40s for the month of September. As more and more data trickled in, pointing to a sharper slowdown in U.S. oil production, markets grew more confident that...

The Kremlin has launched an incredible volte-face in economic policy and turned to traditional industries like farming in the face of tumbling oil prices ___ Russia has abandoned hopes for a lasting recovery in oil prices, bracing for a new era of abundant crude as US shale production transforms the global energy market. The Kremlin has launched a radical shift in strategy, rationing funds for the once-sacrosanct oil and gas industry and relying instead on a revival of manufacturing and farming, driven by a much more competitive rouble. "We have to have prudent forecasts. Our budget is based very conservative...

ladimir Putin's military campaign in Syria is stirring up trouble in the Middle East -- and jacking up oil prices in the process. T. Boone Pickens, the billionaire oil man, believes that's exactly what Putin was hoping for. "He wants a higher price for oil," Pickens told CNNMoney's Cristina Alesci. "A lack of leadership in the United States has allowed Putin to walk into the Middle East and be right there." Energy-reliant Russia has been slammed by the crash in world oil prices. The Russian economy is in recession and the ruble has collapsed against the dollar. But last week...

After oil prices plummeted, I went on the record saying I thought they'd be back above $70 per barrel by the end of 2015. The year isn't over yet, but my prediction isn't looking good. I thought worldwide demand would go up — and it has. The latest from the International Energy Agency shows demand is already up about 1.7 million barrels a day. thought supply from the United States would go down — and it has. Companies have been laying down rigs, and U.S. production has dropped by 500,000 barrels a day since June. So where'd I go wrong?...

Saudi Arabia on Sunday made deep reductions to the prices it charges for its oil, hard on the heels of cuts last month by rival producers in the Gulf. With U.S. production still increasing despite lower oil prices, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are battling to keep their share of the last growing markets in Asia. In a list of official prices sent to customers, state-oil company Saudi Aramco cut the price of its light-crude deliveries to Asia by $1.7 a barrel. As a result, it switched to a discount of $1.6 a barrel against the...

Oil executives warned on Tuesday of a "dramatic" decline in U.S. production that could pave the way for a future spike in prices if fuel demand increases. Delegates at the Oil and Money conference in London, an annual gathering of senior industry officials, said world oil prices were now too low to support U.S. shale oil output, the biggest addition to world production over the last decade. "We are about to see a pretty dramatic decline in U.S. production growth," the former head of oil firm EOG Resources Mark Papa, told the conference. Papa, now a partner at U.S. energy...

This show is from February, was this guest correct? listen in to find out! Jim Lacamp, Sr. VP of Investments at UBS talks about declining oil prices and likely price trends in 2015.

That low oil prices are squeezing out oil sands producers is not breaking news. But in spite of a grim oil price outlook, production out of Calgary has continued to grow, defying both expectations and logic. The implications are serious, not just for the future of Canada’s energy industry and economy, but also North American energy relations. In June 2015, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) revised down its 2030 production forecast to 5.3 million barrels per day (mbd). A year earlier the group predicted Canada would be able to produce 6.4 mbd by 2030. This is compared to...

“There’s just no cash.” That’s the Coles Notes from a senior banker describing the book of oil service loans he manages for one of Alberta’s leading lenders. There’s simply not enough cash flow to support current levels of debt. Bankers and borrowers have kicked the can down the road about as far as they can as more oilfield service (OFS) and exploration and production (E&P) companies default on their loans and seek more relief on lending covenants. While a significant oil price increase to lift all the sinking boats will surely come, it won’t happen soon enough. More of the...

Mike BirdSeptember 11, 2015Oil prices have been on a roller-coaster ride over the past year. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil tumbled late in 2014 from over $100 (£64.78) a barrel to just around $45 a barrel early this year. After a recovery back to around $60 a barrel during the early summer, prices have gone through the floor again, down to $45.12 on Friday. But oil could go even lower.The price of a barrel of oil could go to just $20 soon, according to Goldman Sachs analysts led by global commodities research chief Jeffrey Currie. There's a huge surplus of...

A lot of people, including several OPEC members, thought the oil slump would be easing by now. Instead, as oil prices languish near multi-year lows and experience unprecedented volatility, it’s now unclear how long it will take oil prices to recover. Indeed, OPEC now appears poised to wait out the period of low prices even if that takes months or even a couple of years. The fact of the matter is that despite the calls of Venezuela and Algeria, Saudi Arabia and other major OPEC members don’t seem too concerned about the current low prices. Venezuela in particular has been...

Oil prices have posted their strongest rally in years, jumping an astounding 27 percent in the last three trading days of August. While much of the recent price movement defies reason and is enormously magnified by speculative movements by traders to take and cover their bets on oil, still, there were a series of rumors, events, and fresh data that helped contribute to the spike. For example, on August 31, the oil markets woke up to the news that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet his counterpart from Venezuela to discuss “possible mutual steps” to stabilize oil prices. The meeting...

A 7% dive to $45 a barrel comes after prices soared higher to close Monday above $49 a barrel -- a nearly 30% rise in three days. Just a week ago, oil plummeted below $38 a barrel for the first time since 2009. The drop in prices Tuesday following the Chinese factory report seemed to make more sense than the rapid rebound. Concerns about a slowdown in Chinese economic growth has been one of the factors driving prices lower. Concerns in markets about a supply glut may have been eased a bit on Monday with a new government report that...

U.S. oil prices soared 10% on Thursday, as a rally in Chinese and U.S. stocks and better-than-expected U.S. economic data prompted a rush by traders to bail out of bearish bets that the market would fall. Traders and analysts at hedge funds, banks and brokerages said supply-and-demand conditions in the oil market remained weak and there appeared to be little fundamental justification for such a strong rally, or expectations of more price gains in the near future. Rather, they said, it appeared to be set off as investors with so-called short positions that profit from falling prices closed those bets...