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OPEC next gathers December 4 in Vienna, just over a year since Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi announced at the previous OPEC winter meeting the Saudi decision to let the oil market determine oil prices rather than to continue Saudi Arabia’s role of guarantor of $100+/bbl oil. Despite the intense financial and economic pain this decision has inflicted on Saudi Arabia, its fellow OPEC members, and other oil producers, the Saudis have given no indication they plan to alter course. In fact, Saudis have downplayed the impact of lower prices on their country, asserting that the kingdom has the financial...

With West Texas Intermediate crude now below $42 a barrel, the edifice of America’s oil and gas boom is finally crumbling. The number of companies in bankruptcy or restructuring has increased, and the clouds will only grow darker in the months ahead. Declining revenues, evaporating earnings and shrinking values of oil and gas reserves will put the crunch on oil companies’ ability to refinance loans, let alone borrow new cash or sell shares. Last week two companies showed that having a heroic name is no defense. Hercules Offshore, a Gulf of Mexico drilling contractor, announced it had reached a prepackaged...

The lowest crude prices in six years might not be enough to put the brakes on the U.S. energy renaissance. Some parts of North Dakota’s Bakken shale play are profitable at less than $30 a barrel as companies tap bigger wells and benefit from lower drilling costs, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis. That’s less than half the level of some estimates when the oil rout began last year. The lower bar for profitability is one reason why U.S. oil production has remained near a 40-year high even as crude prices fell more than 50 percent over the past year...

Bob BryanAugust 17, 2015Oil prices have hit six-year lows, and Cumberland Advisors' David Kotok thinks the worst may be yet to come. "We could go back to $15 or $20, this is a downward slope, we don't know a bottom," Kotok said in a Monday morning interview on Bloomberg TV. WTI crude oil futures are trading near $42 a barrel while Brent futures are just above $48 a barrel. Kotok said that despite the oil industries apparent belief that things will get better, there is little reason for anything to change. "Hope is not a strategy, it’s a myth," he...

Prices at some gas stations spiked 50¢ overnight. Earlier this week, analysts proclaimed that $2 gas would be common once again around the U.S. Global oil prices are cratering, nearing $40 per barrel, and shrinking wholesale rates can only result in lower prices at the pump. Or so one would think. Despite plunging oil prices, drivers throughout the Midwest have been subjected to dramatic price spikes at gas stations this week. In Cincinnati, for instance, the price for a gallon of regular increased more than 40¢ overnight at some stations. Less than two weeks after analysts predicted average prices in...

If the oil futures market is correct, Saudi Arabia will run into trouble within two years. It will be in existential crisis by the end of the decade. The contract price of U.S. crude for delivery in December 2020 is currently US$62.05, implying a drastic change in the economic landscape for the Middle East and petro-states. The Saudis took a huge gamble last November when they stopped supporting prices and opted instead to flood the market to drive out rivals, boosting output to 10.6m barrels a day (b/d) into the teeth of the downturn. Bank of America says the Organization...

The oil market is signaling that prices could stay lower for longer, delivering a fresh blow to hard-hit energy exploration-and-production companies. Benchmark U.S. oil futures for September delivery are nearing the six-year low hit in March. But contracts for delivery in later years have taken an even bigger hit, with prices for 2016 and 2017 already trading below their March lows. That indicates that investors, traders and oil companies see the global glut of crude oil persisting beyond this year. Companies making long-term investment decisions rely on the prices of futures contracts one or more years in advance. Producers trade...

Is $20 oil Possible? This question has been asked, and answered, in previous Oilpro posts. Yes, $20 oil is possible. Will it happen? I don't know. But it is worthwhile to understand why a $20 price is not out of reason. Further, it might be instructive to understand why recent oil price commentators are suggesting a low-thirties number. A year ago it was almost impossible to get an article published that talked about $60 oil. That price was believed to be completely unreasonable. Now we are flooded with commentaries speculating on "How low will it go?", with $30-40 numbers quite...

Oil prices fell on Friday as concern over global oversupply intensified after oil producers’ cartel OPEC indicated there would be no cuts in production despite a huge global oversupply. The fall mirrored a general sell-off in commodities on persistent worries about demand in China, the world’s biggest user of energy and many key materials such as copper. China’s state planner said on Friday a slowing economy must not be allowed to morph into social risks as the volatile Chinese stock market fell again. “All commodities are down,” said Abhishek Deshpande, oil analyst at Natixis. “Commodities face weak demand, excess supplies...

U.S. oil futures closed below the psychologically important $50 level—possibly signaling more declines to come and a retest of the March lows.

In the past, I documented the overstatements by both the IEA and EIA in 2014 & 2015 in terms of supply, inventory and understatements of demand. Others also noticed these distortions and, whether intentional or not, they exist and they are very large in dollar terms. These distortions, which are affecting price through media hype and/or direct/indirect price manipulation, are quite possibly the largest in financial history. Putting numbers behind it, with worldwide production running some 95 million barrels per day, and assuming $55 per barrel for oil, the market for crude oil is about $5.2 billion per day. Each...

The news from the IEA is not good. “World oil demand growth appears to have peaked in 1Q15 at 1.8 mb/d and will continue to ease throughout the rest of this year and into next as temporary support fades.” I don’t have great faith in forecasts but the data shows declining demand growth from late 2010 to the 2nd quarter of this year The weak global economy is the cause of low demand growth. The current debt crisis Greece and collapsing stock markets in China are the latest alarm signals.

Oil prices fell sharply in early trading on Monday after Greece rejected austerity measures demanded in return for bailout money and as China rolled out an unprecedented series of steps over the weekend to prevent a full-blown stock market crash. In a referendum on Sunday, Greeks overwhelmingly rejected austerity measures demanded in return for bailout money, putting in doubt its continued place in the single currency and pulling down the euro EUR= in early trading on Monday. In China, stock markets face a make-or-break week after officials rolled out a series of measures to prevent a full-blown stock market crash...

The oil price collapse of 2014-2015 began one year ago this month (Figure 1). The world crossed a boundary in which prices are not only lower now but will probably remain lower for some time. It represents a phase change like when water turns into ice: the composition is the same as before but the physical state and governing laws are different.* For oil prices, the phase change was caused mostly by the growth of a new source of supply from unconventional, expensive oil. Expensive oil made sense only because of the longest period ever of high oil prices in...

The Greek tragedy is reaching its climax. The discussions between Greece and its European creditors broke down over the weekend, with the two sides still at an impasse. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras balked at deeper austerity cuts to the Greek economy, cuts that are a prerequisite for further help from Berlin and Brussels. As a result, Greece is approaching the precipice. With a massive debt payment due on June 30 to the IMF, Greece could default. The extent of the fallout is anybody’s guess, but Greece could see the value of its bonds plummet, putting its banks in crisis,...

Oil rising to $60/bbl is displeasing some people, particularly the shorts. Some of the more extreme –those calling for oil in the $20’s – have wisely fallen silent. Others, like Goldman Sachs, who a few months ago had set their flag in the 30’s, have unfortunately not gone so silent. They recently moved their flag into the 40’s but they continue to talk a lot. A better strategy – though one that would require some humility — would be to stop talking and listen. Recent and compounding data will soon wash away the walls of worry erected by the experts....

Some market watchers, such as Cornerstone Analytics (CA), have consistently stated that the underestimation of demand, coupled with over-estimation of supply, will mask the growing call on OPEC oil in the second half of this year. CA recently noted that global demand outstripped supply by some 4 million barrels in April . This comes in addition to the mounting evidence that the oil market, via rig count declines, slowing production growth, higher demand and huge API crude inventory declines, is starting to readjust. Be that as it may, Goldman Sachs (GS) seems to believe oil must fall to $45 by...

Could oil prices be in for yet another decline? Oil prices have rebounded with surprising speed in recent weeks, with WTI prices bouncing by more than a third from March lows. There are good reasons for this. Rig counts are down by nearly 1,000 (or nearly 60 percent) since hitting a high in October 2014. Spending on some of the world’s largest projects has been cut by a combined $129 billion, a figure that could balloon to $200 billion by 2016. The spending and drilling contraction is finally leading to some small production declines.

Oil prices declined on Tuesday, losing value as the strength of the dollar dissuaded buyers. The dollar gained versus the euro after a senior official at the European Central Bank said the institution would " front-load" its bond-buying program, snapping up more eurozone sovereign debt in May and June to avoid having to buy large volumes during the summer lull in July and August. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, rose 0.5%. Brent crude for July delivery...

Oil production from the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale plays look like they’ve peaked and other shale plays may not be far behind. Oil production from seven major U.S. shale plays is expected to fall by a total of 86,000 barrels a day in June, according to a monthly report from the Energy Information Administration released Monday. The previous report released a month ago also showed a forecast for a fall of 57,000 barrels a day in May. Oil output at the Eagle Ford shale play in South Texas is forecast to see the biggest decline, down 47,000 barrels a...