Free Republic

This is my final column before the midterm election. So, this former Vegas oddsmaker turned national political commentator has a few predictions and common sense observations to make. Back in 2016 I predicted a Trump victory when (** almost) no one else did. Every poll showed Trump would lose by a wide margin. Nate Silver of the NY Times predicted Hillary’s chances of winning at 92%. These pollsters make their living by polling actual human beings. I don’t. So how did I know? Simple. First, size matters. You could see it in the rallies. Trump would attract eight hour lines...

Donald Trump Sparks Record Bets in Britain (Bookies suffering a huge loss) U.K. bookmakers have recorded a record-high ï¿¡150 million bets on the presidential race By Jon Sindreu Nov 8, 2016 1:52 pm ET In wager-loving Britain, bets on whether Donald Trump will be the next U.S. president have surpassed any other political gamble ever. A Republican victory in TuesdayÂ’s U.S. election will leave bookies nursing a large loss in an event that they say has attracted an estimated ï¿¡150 million worth of bets. This would add to a large string of losses due to bad political forecasts.

Yes, you read that headline correctly. I am a Las Vegas oddsmaker (and former Libertarian vice presidential candidate) and here's why I am so boldly predicting a Romney landslide. In November of 2004, only days before the presidential election, I went on CNBC and predicted a Bush victory by 3 points and 30 electoral votes. Every poll at the time showed Kerry in the lead. Bush won by 3 and 35. Newsmax magazine called it the most accurate prediction of 2004. In October of 2006, I went on Fox News to predict the GOP would get slaughtered in the midterm...

Analysis: For the first time since January 2001 Bush has lost his advantage in The Political Oddsmaker. There is some evidence, though contradictory, that indicates a slight shift in Kerry's favor duringthe last 48 hours. Can Bush firm it up today? Or will the slide continue? It seems that most of the political indicators have broken down given the closeness of the race and the conflicting data being reported. ELECTORAL VOTES: Bush favored, 227 votes; Kerry favored, 242 votes; 59 even. At this point, neither candidate can claim enough Electoral Votes to win. This race remains unsettled in a number...