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Alarm! US 10-year Treasury yields are soaring along with mortgage rates. The US Treasury market is witnessing another significant selloff, pushing the 10y UST yield close to the 4.50% mark. The surge in real rates is remarkable, reaching 2.12% for the 10y, a level not seen since 08’. While this might appear attractive in real terms compared to historical benchmarks, could we be on the brink of a third consecutive year of negative performance for US Treasuries? To put this into perspective, such a scenario has never occurred in history. The conforming mortgage rate is at 7.3%, up 156% under...

Is The Fed pushin’ too hard on rates to fight inflation? Or not hard enough?? Between the data and the overnight momentum in overseas markets, bonds are at their weakest levels in years. Mortgage-backed securities (the bonds that dictate mortgage rates) didn’t swoon quite as much as Treasuries, but as of today, it was just enough to push the average mortgage lender almost perfectly back in line with the highest 30yr fixed rate of the past 23 years. [30 year fixed 7.47%] Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined -0.4%MoM in August, bringing the year-over-year change to -7.6%. The Fed can’t...

Bidenomics, the economic gift to big donors and a boot up the backside of middle class and low wage workers, keeps on giving. Now its homebuilder sentiment falling to 45. U.S. homebuilders are feeling pessimistic about their business for the first time in seven months, thanks to stubbornly high mortgage rates. Builder confidence in the single-family housing market fell 5 points in September to 45 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The decrease follows a 6-point drop in August. Anything below 50 is considered negative. Mortgage rates are up 152% under Biden’s Reign of Economic...

It is a day of rememberance for the tragedy of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York City, while Biden embarrasses himself in Vietnam in a rambling speech which his aides cut off mid-sentence. Oh and he used his “lying dog-faced pony soldier” line again about global warning, ignoring the massive growth in coal useage in nearby China. Is this Bozo Joe? But back in the USA (while Biden does his humiliate the US tour of Vietnam, India, etc, and ignores the tragedy of the 9/11 attacks), we see mortgage rates still up above 7% as the US Treasrury 10Y-2Y...

Bidenomics’ new themesong, “I’ve youv’e got the money, honey, I’ve got the time.” Otherwise, sod off. Speaking of Bidenomics, US mortgage purchase demand just declined to the lowest level in 28 years. Mortgage applications decreased 2.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 1, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance...

KEY POINTS: The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 7.21% from 7.31% Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 2% for the week and were 28% lower than the same week one year ago. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ After rising sharply for several weeks, mortgage interest rates pulled back slightly last week, but not enough to revive mortgage demand. Total mortgage application volume fell 2.9% last week, compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages...

Thanks to Bidenomics, code for massive Federal spending on green energy initiatives and payoffs fo large donors, we have agonizing inflation and consumers are borrowing more and more to cope with inflation. And with the increased use of debt comes …. drumroll … delinquenices! Let’s start with mortgage loans, the overall delinquency rate is 63bps, near record lows, likely due to the huge home appreciation of the last few years which padded the equity cushion for most homeowners. Even the youngest cohort (18-29 years old) has a delinquency rate only 30bps higher than the aggregate. Unlike the 2007-2011 period, the...

You know Bidenomics isn’t working at all when the best I can say about it is … the current housing bubble isn’t as bad as the house price bubble of 2006. We are truly in Biden’s ShamWow economy! Yes, if I look at real home prices less real median earnings we can see that the ratio, while terrible, is still not as bad as the housing bubble of 2006. If I look at Case-Shiller National home price index less REAL median earnings, it is now far worse than in 2006. But home prices are still up 32% under Biden While...

Under Bidenomics, there is still too much Fed monetary stimulus in the form of >$8 trillion on its balance sheet. While the biggest surge in Fed activity occurred with Covid, The Fed has added 10% to its balance sheet under Billions Biden. Despite not backing off the assets purchases by The Fed, conforming 30Y mortgage rate is still up 155% under Bidenomics. Yes, The Fed is raising its target rate to cool inflation, but doing little with its balance sheet. The Case-Shiller national home price index is up 32% under Vacation Joe! It seems prices are out of control and...

I wonder if Biden will use his writeboard to brag about the 30-year mortgage rate rising 157% under his economic Reign on Error? Aka, Bidenomics. Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 25, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous...

On Wednesday’s broadcast of “CNN This Morning,” DNC Chair Jaime Harrison responded to a question on whether the economy is a bad issue for President Joe Biden given the spike in gas prices and mortgage rates hitting 20-year highs by saying the economy isn’t a vulnerable spot and “Because of the Inflation Reduction Act, we have seen a precipitous drop in terms of inflation in this country. And so every economic measure out there shows that we’re not going into a recession. We are roaring back into the future on this economic message.” Co-host Victor Blackwell asked, “Gas prices are...

The Talking Heads said it best. Bidenomics is burning down the housing market. Bidenomincs (or trying to recover from Yellenomics) is responisble for interest rates rising to flight inflation and the collapse of mortgage lending. And she was … Janet Yellen. Mortgage demand (applications) decreased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 18, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index...

Maui Joe Biden received a lot of help from his friends at The Federal Reserve! Thanks to the crippling effects of Bidenomics (Fed easing then tightening to combat inflation caused by insane green spending and a war in Ukraine), US mortgage rates (conforming 30-year) has increased 159%. On the yield curve side, the US Treasury curve 10Y-2Y CMT fell from 99 basis points the day after Maui Joe was sworn-in as El Presidente to the inverted curve we see today (-63 basis points). Dynamic Maui Joe looking less than happy trying to visit Maui while he could be partying with...

Bidenomics should be called Sovietnomics. Meaning the same type of command-driven economy that helped demolish the old Soviet Union instead of a western-style demand-driven economy. Biden’s reliance on “goin’ green” has been bad for the middle class (but a boon for the wealthy donor class like Tom Steyer, the donor when The Bidens are spending on their vacation at Lake Tahoe in California). But back to the ravages being infliced on the US middle class due to 1) bad monetary policy and 2) insane levels of spending by Biden and Congress. Existing home sales were expected to decline very modestly...

Hellzapoppin under Bidenomics! And it isn’t a musical, but a tragedy. Between The Federal Reserve’s outrageous overreaction to Covid (printing like there was no tomorrow), and Biden’s massive spending spree (lots of moldy (green) spending, we have see horrid inflation. And The Fed trying (sort of) to combat inflation, we see that 30-year CONFORMING mortgage rate for 80% LTV or lower credit borrowers is up 163.5% year-over-year under Bidenomics. Under Bidenomics, public debt (owed by the US Treasury) is up 19% or greater than $5 triillion. Now wonder Biden throws are billions like it is water. I seriously want the...

As The Buckinghams crooned, the mortgage market is a kind of a drag. Rates on 30-year mortgages in the US are now the highest since 2000, at 7.53%. Mortgage rates are now up 153% under Bidenomics. Rates have gone from sub 3% to above 7.50% under Inflation Joe. Yes, in part we are playing catch-up from Yellen’s Reign of Error as Fed Chair (keeping rates too low for too long). Only in Washington DC, does gross incompetance warrant a promtion to US Treasury Secretary. Career half-wit Mean Joe Biden is El Presidente and acting like a third world dictator.

(NEXSTAR) – If we’ve learned anything about the real estate market these past few years, it’s that things change fast. During the peak of the pandemic, low interest rates and the desire for more space led to a home buying and selling frenzy. At the end of 2021, home prices were 18.5% higher than they had been just a year before, according to CoreLogic. Now, in places where the real estate market was recently red hot, fewer homes are being listed than just two years ago. Those same homes now have bigger price tags and are sitting on the market...

The US mortgage market is livin’ la vida Biden! And for the US mortgage market, la vida Biden in ugly. Mortgage applications decreased 3.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 4, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 37 percent...

Homeowners with a mortgage rate above this number are almost twice as likely to sell their home.A new survey from Zillow found the “mortgage rate tipping point” at which homeowners are likely to sell their homes. According to the survey, homeowners with a mortgage rate above 5% are almost twice as likely to say they plan on selling their home in the next three years than those paying a rate below 5%. As the Fed continues to raise the federal funds rate in an attempt to combat inflation, consumers are facing higher commercial interest rates, especially mortgage rates. As of...

Bob Wood, 66, has been thinking of selling his home in Mobile, Alabama. The finance professor and his wife, Terri, purchased the 5,000-square-foot house with a pool nearly a decade ago. “It’s probably time to downsize,” he said. They would also like to be closer to their grandchildren in Tennessee. And yet, “we are in the 10th year of a 3.125% 15-year fixed mortgage,” he said. They don’t want to move now and give up that low rate to buy at a higher rate. “We just don’t want to pay that much in interest.” Wood is among “a stock of...