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  • RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, NOVEMBER 11

    11/11/2022 11:22:38 PM PST · by TigerLikesRoosterNew · 115 replies
    ISW ^ | Nov 11, 2022 | Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan
    Ukrainian forces are completing the liberation of the western (right) bank of Kherson Oblast after the Russians retreated from it. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces completed the withdrawal to the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River at 5am local time on November 11.[1] While contingents of Russian soldiers likely remain on the west bank, they are likely scattered throughout the Oblast and attempting to retreat as Ukrainian forces push towards the Dnipro River, although some may have remained behind to attempt to conduct partisan activities in small groups. It is unclear how many Russian...
  • RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, OCTOBER 24, 2022

    10/25/2022 8:19:38 AM PDT · by Timber Rattler · 14 replies
    Institute for the Study of War ^ | October 24, 2022 | Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, Grace Mappes, Angela Howard, and Fredrick W. Kagan
    Key Takeaways: 1) The Kremlin intensified its information operation to accuse Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb for a second day in a row. 2) Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Major General Kyrylo Budanov stated on October 24 that the impact of Russian terrorist strikes against critical Ukrainian infrastructure is waning. 3) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts on September 30 ignited a schism within the Kremlin, which will likely intensify as Ukraine liberates more territories according to Budanov. 4) Prigozhin continues to accrue power and is setting up a...
  • Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21

    10/22/2022 5:04:26 PM PDT · by Widget Jr · 52 replies
    The Institute for the Study of War ^ | October 21, 2022 | Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
    The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated on October 21 that Russian forces are “quite actively” transferring ammunition, military equipment, and some unspecified units from the Dnipro River’s west bank to the east bank via ferries.[1] The Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces deployed 2,000 mobilized men to hold the frontlines and are continuing to shell Ukrainian positions, likely in an effort to cover their...