An ABC News review of Mitt Romney’s new book ends thus: “If history is any guide, however, Romney stands a decent chance of getting his party’s nod. Although he was hurt last time by questions about his authenticity, Republicans have a long tradition of nominating second-time candidates: think Richard Nixon in 1968, Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bob Dole in 1996, and John McCain in 2008″ This is the conventional wisdom; we’re all used to hearing it. It’s the idea that Republicans nominate the “next-in-line” candidate, or the runner-up from last season’s primaries. It’s superficially plausible....