Free Republic

The Democrats’ self-proclaimed “Recovery Summer” has become a term of derision. Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains. In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of...

On August 25, I offered an update on my assessment of the 105 vulnerable House Democrats and Democrat-held open seats, and the 5 or so vulnerable House Republicans and GOP-held open seats. I put 13 in the “GOP should win” category, 28 in the “GOP has good chance of winning” category, 36 in the “50/50″ category, 22 in the “GOP could win with luck or a wave” category, and 6 in the “GOP will need luck and a wave” category. Some readers figured this added up to a predicted gain of 50-60 seats, and that’s a fair description, although I...

Former Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, a Republican who has broken ranks in the past with the GOP, gave Democrat Joe Sestak his second major endorsement from moderates in a week in his bid for a hotly contested Senate seat in Pennsylvania. Hagel told The Associated Press on Monday that Sestak has demonstrated during his two terms in Congress that he puts the interests of the nation and his constituents ahead of his party. "I think he's exactly what our country needs more of. I think he's what the Senate needs more of _ courageous, independent thinking," Hagel said. "That's what...

Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-Arkansas) is trailing her Republican opponent John Boozman in Arkansas by 38 points. Rasmussen reported: Support for incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln has now fallen to its lowest level yet as Republican John Boozman remains on track to shift Arkansas’ Senate seat to the GOP column. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Arkansas shows Boozman capturing 65% of the vote, while Lincoln earns 27% support. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are not sure. Boozman has been ahead in this race for months. In July,...

Whit Ayres, Jon McHenry, and Dan Judy just completed a series of polls in twelve key congressional districts on the East Coast. (Another two batches of polls in the near future will look at key races in the heartland and West Coast.) Their polls, conducted for American Action Forum on July 28, 29, 31, and August 1, with 4,800 likely general-election voters — 400 each in Connecticut’s 4th and 5th districts, Florida’s 24th district, New York’s 20th, 23rd and 25th districts; Pennsylvania’s 3rd, 10th, 11th, and 12th districts; Virginia’s 5th district; and West Virginia’s 3rd district — show competitive races...

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said the following in response to yesterday's press conference conducted by Rick Lazio, his potential opposition in the coming election for governor in New York state: “If there is a criminal case, then there is a criminal case. But, if this is: I don’t like this religion, and I don’t like this religion on this block. Or: I don’t like this religion in this city. Then I agree with Mayor Bloomberg. Then I agree with the community board that approved the mosque. What are we about, if not religious freedom? What is the country...

Nancy Pelosi is asking supporters to donate NOW to help prevent "subpoenas and investigations" resulting from a GOP majority. I'll say that again: Pelosi sees a House GOP majority coming at her fast, and she is in full-panic mode. Mama Pelosi is trying to protect Barack Obama, but could she also be personally concerned? Remember the Eric Massa scandal? Remember Air Pelosi and the abuse of her air force plane - her family riding - without her, in fact without anyone from the House traveling?

<p>2010 is shaping up to be an excellent year for conservatives, who are leading in most of the races around the country for the November midterm elections.</p> <p>A brief panoramic view of the various campaigns will reveal that voters are clearly intent on making significant changes to Congress this year.</p>

Alvin Greene, with almost no campaigning, no experience and a criminal past won the South Carolina Democrat primary to run in the general election for U.S. Senate. Though more experienced in political and legal matters his fellow Democrat opponent was white. Recent history has shown many people voted for Barack Obama because they desired a black to be President. Every time I heard this I thought, with that being said they are admitting they would vote for any black right off the street as long as his opponent was white. A decision and an act based purely on race. What...

GOP challenger Dino Rossi has gained ground on incumbent U.S. Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) over the past six weeks according to the latest Elway poll. According to an earlier Elway poll, Rossi trailed Murray 34 percent to 51 percent at the beginning of May, but now trails by just 7 points—40 percent to 47 percent. The poll also indicated that the upcoming race and election should be intensely partisan, with 89 percent of Democrats supporting Murray and 84 percent of Republicans supporting Rossi. According to the poll, “Had this been a survey of just partisans, Murray would have had a...

The campaign of defeated Democratic Senate candidate Vic Rawl has assembled a team of national academic experts to review Tuesday’s perplexing South Carolina primary results that propelled a virtually unknown, underfunded and unemployed candidate to the party’s nomination over a veteran officeholder and public official. Rawl campaign manager Walter Ludwig tells POLITICO three different teams of experts in election data analysis are combing through the results in the state’s 46 counties and already turning up some eye-opening trend lines. The review is in response to the shocking victory by 32-year-old Alvin Greene, who, despite never giving a campaign speech...

An unemployed 32-year-old black Army veteran with no campaign funds, no signs, and no website shocked South Carolina on Tuesday night by winning the Democratic Senate primary to oppose Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). Alvin Greene, who currently lives in his family's home, defeated Vic Rawl, a former judge and state legislator who had a $186,000 campaign warchest and had already planned his next fundraising event. Despite the odds, Greene, who has been unemployed for the past nine months, said that he wasn't surprised by his victory. "I wasn’t surprised, but not really. I mean, just a little, but not much....

Dave Weigel called Alvin Greene the “the kind of opponent candidates dream about,” but he didn’t know the half of it. Jim Geraghty noted that the new Democratic nominee to run against conservative stalwart Sen. Jim DeMint in South Carolina hadn’t filed any paperwork with the FEC on fundraising, but perhaps he just didn’t want to get in any more trouble with the law than Greene already faces. The Democratic nominee isn’t just “wholly unserious” — the AP reports that he’s been charged with a felony obscenity offense that could get him five years in prison: South Carolina’s surprise Democratic...

SEIU officials: Blanche Lincoln should forget about our support in general election In a move that's likely to ratchet up already-white-hot post-Arkansas tensions between organized labor and the White House, officials with the labor powerhouse SEIU are confirming that they are all but certain not to back Blanche Lincoln in the general election. SEIU sends over a statement from national political director Jon Youngdahl that constitutes the first on-the-record threat since the election not to support the Democrat: For all the talk about what this race meant, the pundits are missing the point: all around this country their are families...

Democrats and Republicans don’t agree on much these days. But lately it seems that they’ve been willing to set aside their vast, irreconcilable differences and publicly concur on at least one thing: that the Democrats are going to do really, really badly in November’s midterm elections...Case closed, right? The Democrats are “going down.” Well, not quite.

Congressman Joe Sestak’s post-primary bounce appears to over, and he now trails Republican rival Pat Toomey by seven points in the U.S. Senate contest in Pennsylvania. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania shows Toomey with 45% support, while Sestak earns 38%. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate in the race, and 12% are undecided. Two weeks ago, just after his widely covered primary victory over longtime Senator Arlen Specter, Sestak posted a modest four-point lead lead over Toomey. Prior to the primary, however, Toomey tended to enjoy modest leads over Sestak. The current polling shows...

- New York Republicans have given Bruce Blakeman the party's official designation to take on Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. The three-day GOP convention came to a fractious end with the Republican delegates split on their choice of Senate candidate. Bruce Blakeman is the former presiding officer of the Nassau County Legislature. He won the endorsement over David Malpass, who earned enough support at Thursday's convention to run in a September 14th GOP primary. Malpass is a former Bear Stearns chief economist. A third candidate, former congressman Joe DioGuardi, didn't get enough votes for a primary line. But he is vowing...

Republican Dino Rossi finally made it official this morning, entering the U.S. Senate race for the seat held by three-term incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D). In a five-minute video posted to his web site, www.dinorossi.com, Rossi reaches out to voters upset with the direction the country is headed, citing rising unemployment, plummeting housing values, "wasteful" stimulus plans and "massive new debt as far as the eye can see." In language straight out of Ronal Reagan’s playbook, Rossi says "America's best days" lie ahead if we "unleash the power of the people" and restore government to its "proper, more limited role."...

It would be great to boot Nancy Pelosi from the Speaker's Chair in the House and even sweeter to boot Harry Reid and the Dems from control of the Senate! First, a cautionary note. Let's not get too overconfident about winning big in November. All indicators are that the Independents who fueled Dem victories in 2006 and 2008 are swinging back to the GOP which would make it a big year for Republicans. But we'll have to fight and fight even harder to achieve the goals of taking the house and perhaps even the Senate. But Dick Morris sees a...

Alexi Giannoulias's road to replace Barack Obama in the Senate from Illinois has just gotten even rockier. Not only is popular GOP Congressman Mark Kirk running against him, but his family's bank was seized by the government on suspicions of corruption. And now Democratic Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. may actually back Kirk. Yes, the son of Jesse Jackson might back a Republican. Politico is reporting this as it becomes obvious that Giannoulias may actually lose in this very blue state.