Free Republic

<p>Two months ago, I kicked off the Electoral College Breakdown for 2004 when it had become clear that John F. Kerry was going to be the nominee of the Democrats. Nearly $100M in advertising later, what has happened to the race? Most people, if you asked them, would say that Kerry had been winning the race until lately, when the President had made a comeback and has now surged into the lead; they would hold this opinion because that is pretty much what the national polls have been showing.</p>

<p>The best national poll for my money is the Battleground Poll. Produced by a joint effort between Democrat pollster Celinda Lake of Snell, Lake, Perry and Associates, and Republican pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group, it avoids the partisanship that sometimes can slip into the sampling methods of other polls. The partisanship can come out in the strategic analysis each does for the respective parties, although the spin presented is usually substantive. This year's springtime Battleground Poll, released this week, is excellent as always.</p>

<p>I conclude my review of the April 2000 Electoral College Breakdown by examining the tossup states. One of the most frequent criticisms I have received while doing the ECB is over my decision to not use the "Slight Advantage" states in calculating each candidate's total. Indeed, as a nod to the fact that people were going to take my numbers and add these states to the candidate having the slight advantage anyway, I have started to include the totals "with tossups", although I give these totals less prominence.</p>

<p>Are Things Leaning Towards Staying The Same?</p> <p>In retrospect, it is pretty obvious that Oregon and New Mexico would eventually become tight contests in 2000 despite April polls showing George W. Bush with double digit leads over Al Gore. In 1996, President Clinton defeated Bob Dole in Oregon 47.15% to 39.06%, with Ross Perot taking in 8.80%. And in New Mexico, Clinton had topped Dole by almost as comfortable of a margin, 49.18% to 41.86%, with Perot scoring 5.80%. What caught my eye, however, was how similar the vote percentage for the Democrat candidate was in each case.</p>

<p>The election cycle is in full gear. The candidates have been chosen. Unless the Democrats decide to bring some conspiracy theories to life, George W. Bush will defend his Presidency against Senator John Kerry. The polls are coming in, and they are painting a picture that meshes with the conventional wisdom- that 2004 will be 2000 redux.</p>