Electoral College Breakdown, April 7th Update

ECB 2004 ^ | 4/7/04

[Dales]

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

[This article is part three of a three part sedries. Part one is here. Part two is here.]

Flip a Coin

I conclude my review of the April 2000 Electoral College Breakdown by examining the tossup states. One of the most frequent criticisms I have received while doing the ECB is over my decision to not use the "Slight Advantage" states in calculating each candidate's total. Indeed, as a nod to the fact that people were going to take my numbers and add these states to the candidate having the slight advantage anyway, I have started to include the totals "with tossups", although I give these totals less prominence.

The benchmark I have been using for this look backwards has been the first April report of 2000. In that, seven states were listed as having a "Slight Advantage for Bush" (in the old terminology, "Tossup Bush"): Washington, West Virginia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Geogia, Maine, and Iowa. Of these states, two moved more comfortably into the Bush column (Ga, NC), Bush held two by small margins (WV, NH) and three went for Gore (Wa, Me, and Ia, barely).

There were two states that were designated on the other side of the tossup spectrum. Arkansas was a "Slight Advantage for Gore" at the time, but it slipped away to the Republican ledger. The other was Florida, which also was a Bush win, by an infamously slim margin.

There was a single state that was listed as dead even: Wisconsin. Gore carried it in a tough race. Of the states which had a "Slight" designation, the leader won 4 and lost 5. Most of them remained very competitive.

Of course, a sample size this small can give results that lead to incorrect conclusions. More meaningful results are gathered by expanding the sample. I can accomplish this by traversing forward; intuitively, if a slight lead has predictive qualities, this trait should be enhanced closer to the election. However, the last two ECB reports (done election day and three days prior) showed more of the same. Bush carred 4 of 8 in one and 3 of 7 in the other of those where his lead was slight. Gore won 3 of 4 in one and 3 of 5 in the other for those where he had a slight upper hand.

Going back further, Bush won 13 of the 27 states that were ever designated "Tossup Bush" from April onward. Gore carried 13 of 20 ever designated "Tossup Gore". Of the 29 states that were ever designated in any of the three "Tossup" categories, Bush carried 13 and Gore 16, despite the fact that over the course of the ECB states fell into the slight Bush side twice as often as to the slight Gore side. About the only time where a tossup state was not, in fact, a tossup was when the state fell into the tossup category just for a single poll, and for the rest of the election cycle had remained squarely in a candidate's camp- states like Mississippi, South Dakota, and New York. The choice I have made to not go soley on the poll numbers for ECB2004 was made to address matters such as those. When a state is classified as a slight advantage for either candidate or as even, then the state could go either way. If this election plays out like 2000 did, which seems to be the consensus of the punditry and is backed by the recent election trends I detailed in the earlier portions of this series, then these states are all coin flips, with either side having an equal shot at putting together the right combination of advertising, policies, and get-out-the-vote efforts to win the state.

The knowledge of what the designations indicate, assuming that the election will unfold much as 2000 (and, as shown earlier, 1996) did, allows me to simulate election results using a Monte Carlo model. A Monte Carlo simulation is one where odds of individual events are used as inputs, and then many iterations are done with the results of each individual event being random chance within those odds. Here is a review of what the various designations mean at this stage of the election cycle:

• Safe- The state is going to go for the candidate leading, without exception.
  
• Strong Advantage- If the state is not being contested, or if the state was not within 5 points or so in the previous election, then the candidate leading is going to win. For the other states, there is a chance (call it one in six) that the state can be won by the other candidate.
  
• Leaning- The same rules apply as with the Strong states, but the chances of the trailing candidate winning improve to about 1 in 3.
  
• Slight and Even- Either side could win. Call it 50/50.

For the first pass of the Monte Carlo simulation, these guidelines were used to produce the following inputs (values are percent chance that Bush will carry the state): Maine (16.7%); Oregon, Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, and Michigan (33.3%); West Virginia, New Mexico, Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Florida (50%); Nevada, Arizona, and Missouri (66.7%). Bush was given a 100% chance of winning 196 electoral votes, and Kerry was given a 100% chance of winning 153 electoral votes. Running through 1,000,000 simulation iterations reveals that, under these assumptions, Bush would win the election 80.1% of the time, and the average electoral result would be 291.5-246.5. An unlikely-but-not-impossible 1.2% of the time, there was an electoral college deadlock of 269 apiece.

This still includes everyone's favorite sore thumb that sticks out in the recent ECBs- New Jersey. What if the conventional wisdom is correct, and instead of Bush having a real shot there, he has no shot? I ran the simulations again, this time ascribing to New Jersey a 0% chance of Bush taking the 15 electoral votes. This changes the results substantially, with Bush now winning 60.4% of the time, Kerry 38.0% of the time, and 1.6% of the time resulting in a tie. The average tally was 276.5-261.5.

I ran a few more scenerios. Keeping NJ firmly with Kerry, I then examined what would be the impact on if Kerry expanded his advertising to states that his campaign has made overtures about contending but has yet to go on the air. Arkansas and Colorado, by the guidelines, would get a 33% chance of a Kerry win, while by the guidelines Louisiana would be wasted money (as would any money Bush would throw at California, for example). The results? 53.0% Bush, 45.4% Kerry, 1.6% tied, 271.5-266.5 average. If we up the chances of Kerry winning Louisiana to 16.7% (as if it was a strong Bush state that had been close in 2000), then the numbers change to an extremely close battle, with Bush winning 50.7%, Kerry 47.8%, 1.5% tied and a 270-268 average. Finally, I ran one last scenerio. For that one, I assumed that Arkansas and Colorado would end up being contested, that New Jersey would go to Kerry, that Louisiana would be contested but it would go Bush anyway. I then dropped North Carolina down from a certainty to being a complete tossup. I ran this one since the analysis I did last week showed that a Vice Presidential pick can make a 4-10 point swing in the gap, and if that held true and Kerry were to select Edwards, North Carolina would move into the tossup region. Under these conditions, Kerry wins more than he loses, taking 56.6% of the simulations to 42.0% for Bush, with the average result being 274.0-264.0.

At this point, President Bush is still the favorite to win re-election. However, Kerry is close enough to where specific ad buys and infrastructure spending as well as his running mate selection can make a significant difference. I anticipate that this election is going to get closer rather than open up to where either candidate has a substantial lead. If this does happen, then a tremendous amount of media attention will be given to swing voters and various issues that supposedly appeal to them. That will not be what decides the election, however. Nor will it be random (although random events such as fluke snowstorms in New Mexico can certainly play a part). The election will be won by which side is more effective in getting out the vote in the contested states.

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This Week's Polling Updates Overview

This was a very strange week for the state polling results. There were many polls released at the end of last week, but very few over the weekend and early this week. Those polls which were released showed states moving, but the movement went in both directions, to where there are fewer states in the tossup regions than before. Overall, the picture looks slightly better for President Bush than it did a few weeks ago. Very few of these polls contain data collected after the outstanding jobs report from last Friday. None include data collected after the worst of the recent Iraq turbulence. I look for the electoral picture to become less clear, rather than more clear, over the next several weeks.

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	F		Maine
			Electoral Votes: 4
			2000 Result
			Gore 49%
			Bush 44%

Background: Despite having only a single more electoral vote than tiny North Dakota, Maine gets a bit more attention due to its proximity to the media hotbeds in New England. However, it is rarely listed as a swing state for the coming election, which is a mistake. Bush lost to Gore by only 5 points last time, and over the past 10 elections it has split evenly between the parties. The best way to describe Maine is streaky, as those elections have been Democrats for two straight, Republicans for five straight, and now Democrats for the last three. Perhaps it is because Nader picked up 5% that people assume that Maine will be less competitive this time.

Maine is currently a slight advantage for Democrats, which is a change from ECB 2000 where it started as a slight Bush advantage. While the Republicans hold both Senate seats, everything else is in the hands of the Democrats, who enjoy a 31%-29% registration lead.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +11
9/12-26/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +9
3/3/04	Omnibus Poll/Strategic Marketing Services	Link	400 RV	5.0%	Bush	38%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +13

Punditry: This last poll was taken at the heart of the Kerry nationwide peak, but it is still a very impressive result. Perhaps Maine looks favorably at fellow New Englanders. Maybe not, since Dukakis lost here. It will be interesting to see the next poll that comes out here to see if it has tightened to where its status as a battleground state is deserved. For now, I am pessimistic for the President. Strong Advantage for Kerry.

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	F		Indiana
			Electoral Votes: 11
			2000 Result
			Bush 57%
			Gore 41%

Background: This is a Republican state. While LBJ did beat Goldwater, you have to go back to Franklin Roosevelt's second election to find another instance of the Democrats carrying the state. With significant help from Perot, Clinton twice got within 6-7%, but beyond that the closest it has been is when Carter was within 8% of Ford.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
2/15/04	SurveyUSA	Link	525 RV	4.2%	Bush	51%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +6
3/24/04	Bellwether Poll	Link	600 LV	4.0%	Bush	52%	Kerry	37%	Bush +15

Punditry: Indiana opens back up, and will likely not be back to single digits unless Kerry selects Evan Bayh as his running mate. Strong Advantage for Bush.

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	F		Wisconsin
			Electoral Votes: 10
			2000 Result
			Gore 47.83%
			Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +11
10/28/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +1
1/27/04	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	54%	Dem +16
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Kerry +3
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4

Punditry: Wisconsin continues to oscillate between the candidates, with the President currently getting the better end of the deal, opening up a lead that is one span of the MoE (or larger). I'd like to see another poll validating this result before I move it to leaning. Slight Advantage for Bush. From the time of the last Badger Poll, Kerry's favorable/unfavorable ratings slid from 42%/18% to 37%/34%. (Bush's current numbers are 52%/41%).

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	F		New Mexico
			Electoral Votes: 5
			2000 Result
			Gore 48%
			Bush 48%

Background: No state, not even Florida, was closer in the last election than New Mexico. Prior to Clinton breaking through, the Republicans had carried the state for 6 consecutive elections, often by significant margins. Both times that Clinton carried New Mexico, the Perot vote played a significant factor. The strong showing Perot made here suggests that this is a state concerned with Mexico, both from an immigration perspective and from a jobs perspective.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/12/03	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	43%	Dem +3
3/15/04	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque*	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push

* Poll was not exactly a matchup poll, but rather a comparison of the favorability for each.

Punditry: One could almost get the idea for the New Mexico polls that it was a tightly contested state. One would be right. The only thing surprising here, is that while the national polls have shown significant movement first one way and then another, and in some states we have seen movement, New Mexico has not budged. Tossup due to the last poll being +1 Kerry and this one being +1 Bush.

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	New Hampshire
	Electoral Votes: 4
	2000 Result
	Bush 48%
	Gore 47%

Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.

Both last time and this time, New Hampshire started as a slight advantage for Bush. When looking at the other offices, it is hard to understand just why this state is not more firmly in his control. The Republicans hold all the House seats, both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, and hold all major executive branch offices, while having a 37%-26% registration advantage.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/27/03	Franklin Pierce College	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Even
9/11/03	American Research Group	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +14
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
12/10/03	American Research Group	NA	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +12
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
1/20/04	Associated Press	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	55%	Kerry	40%	Bush +15
2/20/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	511 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +15
3/18/04	American Research Group	Link	463 RV, Nader an option	4.6%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
3/18/04	American Research Group	Link	463 RV, Nader not an option	4.6%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3

Punditry: The more New Hampshire polls are released, the more that the University of New Hampshire poll looks more like an outlier or a poll with flawed methodology. These results are right in line with the previous ARG poll. Given a data set like this, New Hampshire is right on the cusp between Slight Advantage for Bush and leaning Bush. For prudence, I will keep it in the former.

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	F		Minnesota
			Electoral Votes: 10
			2000 Result
			Gore 48%
			Bush 46%

Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.

The slight advantage for the Democrats is a step up from the leaning Gore position at the start of ECB 2000. Minnesota's legislative seats are split right down the middle. Half of the Representatives, half of the Senate seats, and one of the state legislative chambers are held by each party. Most of the important executive branch offices are held by Republicans with the exception of Attorney General.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/26/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +2
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
4/2/04	Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll	Link	562 LV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +12

Punditry: Kerry's lead expands in the land of 10,000 lakes. Still, the lead is so large compared to what we have seen before that I assume that at least a portion of this result is just a favorable sample for Kerry-- something that the Star-Trib polls are known to occasionally have. As Bill Salisbury of the Pioneer Press reported

[Norm] Coleman, R-Minn., said a Minnesota Poll taken right before his 2002 election showed Walter Mondale beating him by 6 percentage points; Coleman won by 3 points. In 2000, he said, the poll showed Democrat Al Gore winning the state by 10 points; he won by 2.5 points.

I'd expect to see the next poll show it to be tighter, more along the lines of one showing Minnesota to be Leaning for Kerry. If the next poll surprises me and validates this one, then I will move it to the strong category.

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	F		Ohio
			Electoral Votes: 20
			2000 Result
			Bush 50%
			Gore 46%

Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat three times. Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
2/7/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	59%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +23
9/19/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
3/24/04	Ohio Poll	Link	632 RV	3.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
4/2/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,344 RV	2%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	BUsh +1

Punditry: Steady as she goes, Ohio is in prime position to get a huge infusion of cash into its economy, as the campaigns pour money into trying to convince voters. Given the series of polling results, it is impossible to say with any certainty which candidate has the edge right now. Tossup.

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	Colorado
	Electoral Votes: 9
	2000 Result
	Bush 51%
	Gore 42%

Background: Colorado is generally considered to be winnable for the Democrats, but historically this has proven to be a solid GOP bastion. Only three times since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was President has a Democrat carried this state (Truman, Johnson, and Clinton against Bush- with a big thanks to Perot taking 23% of the tally).

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/8-10/03	Colorado Democratic Party	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	35%	Bush +7
12/15-16/03	Public Opinion Strategies	NA	LV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +10
3/16/04	McLauglin & Associates (R)	NA	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
4/2/04	Public Opinion Strategies	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	40%	Bush +9

Punditry: Colorado opens back up a bit, but not enough to reclassify from Leaning Towards Bush. The Democrats are talking about expanding the fight to Colorado, Louisiana, and Arkansas. I think this is smart from a Presidential campaign perspective; a camp cannot win a state without trying to win the state. The Republicans should welcome this too, however. Arkansas may not be as prime a choice as the Democrats think, since a good portion of the Presidential support they have gotten lately there are attributable to Clinton's presence on the ticket (and, to a lesser degree, his Vice-President). Colorado and Louisiana are states where there are competitive Senate races this fall, and the inevitable linking of the Presidential and Senatorial races that will occur helps the Republicans in both. Louisiana often is open to the Democrat message but is still mainly pro-life. Similarly out in Colorado, Democrat Ken Salazar has tried to innoculate himself on the abortion issue, which Kerry's unabashed support of NARAL will undermine.

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	F		Florida
			Electoral Votes: 27
			2000 Result
			Bush 48.85%
			Gore 48.84%

Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.

In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/29/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	5%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +15
12/3/03	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +6
1/15/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +2
2/27/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
3/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/4/04	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
4/1/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8

Punditry: The Mason-Dixon poll shows that with Bob Graham on the ticket, the gap narrows from 8 points to 3 points. I am wary of this poll's results, since it is such a marked change from other recent polls. As such, I won't move Florida over to the category the number would suggest. Instead, I'll call it Slight Advantage for Bush.

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	F		Michigan
			Electoral Votes: 17
			2000 Result
			Gore 51%
			Bush 46%

Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/26/03	Epic/MRA	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	48%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +7
9/21/03	Mitchell Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +5
12/10/03	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	53%	Kerry	43%	Bush +10
2/3/04	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	46%	Kerry	51%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Dem +4
3/1/04	Mitchell	Link	LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
3/14/04	Marketing Resource Group	Link	600 RV	4.1%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/4/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10

Punditry: Quite a different result in polls that slightly overlapped time-wise, between Epic/MRA and SurveyUSA. Odds are that the 'real' result is somewhere in between those two, which means that Michigan currently Leans toward Kerry

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Summary Table

Effective National Popular Results: Bush 46.1%, Kerry 43.0%

Kerry E					F Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	NY (31) UD36-B34 1/7/04	-	WV (5) B47-K46 3/24/04	NJ (15) B41-UD38 1/13/04	AR (6)	SC (8) B52-UD36 7/28/03	AK (3)
HI (4)	VT (3) HD50-B38 10/2/03	OR (7) K45-B40 3/5/04	-	NM (5) B46-K45 4/1/04	PA (21) B46-K40 3/29/04	VA (13) B48-WC33 12/3/03	LA (9) B50-UD34 11/9/03	ND (3)
MA (12) K56-B38 12/03	ME (4) K51-B38 3/4/04	CA (55) K53-B44 3/11/04	-	OH (20) B46-K45 4/2/04	WI (10) B49-K45 3/31/04	GA (15) B47-UD43 2/4/04	MS (6) B49-UD29 12/22/03	NE (5)
RI (4) K53-B31 2/7/04	IL (21) K47-B39 3/13/04	IA (7) K51-B41 3/23/04	-	-	NH (4) B48-K43 4/1/04	NC (15) B51-K43 3/11/04	SD (3) B50-UD39 2/5/04	WY (3)
-	CT (7) K52-B33 3/28/04	MD (10) K48-B43 3/24/04	-	-	FL (27) B51-K43 4/1/04	NV (5) B49-K38 3/17/04	KY (8) B57-UD41 2/16/04	MT (3) B52-UD27 5/16/03
-	-	WA (11) K50-B44 3/25/04	-	-	-	AZ (10) B51-K42 3/18/04	OK (7) B50-K40 3/1/04	TX (34) B54-K35 3/6/04
-	-	MN (10) K50-B38 4/2/04	-	-	-	TN (11) B52-K41 3/22/04	KS (6) B57-K39 3/4/04	ID (4) B55-K23 3/17/04
-	-	MI (17) K51-B41 4/4/04	-	-	-	MO (11) B49-K42 3/23/04	IN (11) B52-K37 3/24/04	AL (9) B59-K27 3/18/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	CO (9) B49-K40 4/3/04	-	UT (5) B66-K24 3/25/04
Totals
Kerry States			Battleground States			Bush States
23	38	138	0	30	77	95	58	69
209			107			222

Current status:

Bush 222, Kerry 209

Bush 299, Kerry 209 With Tossups

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Last week's quiz:

According to the Gallup poll, which Presidential race featured the most lead changes from January through election day?

An easy one- Bush/Gore 2000. Nixon/Kennedy had only one fewer lead change though.

This week's quiz: What two consecutive elections featured the smallest percentage of states that changed from voting for one party in the first but another party in the second?

[Dales]

Ping!

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[Ingtar]

Is Louisiana colored incorrectly on your map?

[Ingtar]

DOH! Eyes saw IA and read as LA

My bad!

[TJC]

I wonder if this changes for the worst, at least temporarily, based on what is going on in Iraq. The popular vote has shifted back in d*ckheadkerrys favor.

[Aeronaut]

Note on Minnesota: Never ever trust a poll from the Minneapolis Red Star-Tribune! They adjust based on some wierd otherworld algorithms.

[familyofman]

What are the chances of another 'split' with the winner of the electoral vote not winning the 'popular' vote? I've seen various analyses that have either Kerry or Bush in both situations.

[COURAGE]

Yeah, right

Kerry 48% Bush 42% (Rasmussen Daily Poll)

[trick question]

Try showing what your screen name indicates.

[blanknoone]

Dales, did you not adjust the colors for MI and ME on the map?

I am concerned...even though this shows Bush with a slight lead. I can easily see much of the tossup going D. I can't see many inroads into the Kerry leans. CA and NY 'lean' D? They are incredibly liberal! (I know, upstate NY is not the city and inland CA is not the coast...but look at their senators!) I may be a pessimist, but I see big swaths of country being D, and the other half thinking...so R's have to win everything in contention. I can barely envision Bush winning NJ. That alone would be an accomplishment.

I worry for the future of our country...Kerry would be a literal disaster...and America is still flirting with him.

[Dan from Michigan]

National polls don't mean much.

[txjeep]

That Rasmussen poll has been swinging around like a weather vane in a hurricane lately. I know people are fickle but not that fickle. Do you know anyone that has changed their mind about the election as many times as that poll has had a lead change in the last month?

[marblehead17]

ping

[COURAGE]

[KQQL]

Iraq Factor

[Dales]

Actually, by their very nature polls should oscillate, even if not a single voter changed their minds. If, say, half the people support Bush and half the people support Kerry, and we took a poll every day that has a 3 point margin of error, what we would expect to see is that the lead would change often, with about 1 in 20 of our results showing Bush with as much as a 6 point lead and 1 in 20 showing Kerry with as much as a 6 point lead.

It is when polls show no variance that I start to wonder if they are massaging the data.

Obviously, the Rasmussen poll is not good news. The confluence of its movement with outside events that make it easy to understand the movement make it less likely that it was just a random variance. That said, if people are not expecting there to be peaks and valleys in the polling numbers the rest of the way, they need to adjust their expectations. Expect a bit of a roller coaster.

[COURAGE]

You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? You, lieutenant Weinberg? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Santiago, and you curse the Marines. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that Santiago's death, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall -- you need me on that wall.

We use words like "honor," "code," "loyalty." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon and stand the post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you're entitled to!

<

[Owen]

New Jersey is corrupting this entire analysis. Has even the Bush campaign considered NJ to be in play? Was it one of the states where they are airing their ads?

[KAUAIBOUND]

Re your comment that Bush underperformed in Florida in 2000: Wouldn't this be due to Lieberman pulling in the Jewish (transplanted NYers) vote, and the Panhandle being influenced by the premature Florida-for-Gore call by the networks?

Also, do you give any credence to the alleged vote altering/fraud in Palm Beach County, where Bush got significantly fewer votes than the Rep. Bill McCollum (sp?) running for Senator, and there was a high percentage of spoiled (double) votes?