Posted on 04/07/2004 10:00:23 AM PDT by Dales
Edited on 04/07/2004 11:48:50 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Background: Despite having only a single more electoral vote than tiny North Dakota, Maine gets a bit more attention due to its proximity to the media hotbeds in New England. However, it is rarely listed as a swing state for the coming election, which is a mistake. Bush lost to Gore by only 5 points last time, and over the past 10 elections it has split evenly between the parties. The best way to describe Maine is streaky, as those elections have been Democrats for two straight, Republicans for five straight, and now Democrats for the last three. Perhaps it is because Nader picked up 5% that people assume that Maine will be less competitive this time.
Maine is currently a slight advantage for Democrats, which is a change from ECB 2000 where it started as a slight Bush advantage. While the Republicans hold both Senate seats, everything else is in the hands of the Democrats, who enjoy a 31%-29% registration lead.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3/03 | Critical Insights | Link | 600 RV | 4.0 | Bush | 47% | Unnamed Democrat | 36% | Bush +11 |
9/12-26/03 | Critical Insights | Link | 600 RV | 4.0 | Bush | 36% | Unnamed Democrat | 45% | Dem +9 |
3/3/04 | Omnibus Poll/Strategic Marketing Services | Link | 400 RV | 5.0% | Bush | 38% | Kerry | 51% | Kerry +13 |
Punditry: This last poll was taken at the heart of the Kerry nationwide peak, but it is still a very impressive result. Perhaps Maine looks favorably at fellow New Englanders. Maybe not, since Dukakis lost here. It will be interesting to see the next poll that comes out here to see if it has tightened to where its status as a battleground state is deserved. For now, I am pessimistic for the President. Strong Advantage for Kerry.
Background: This is a Republican state. While LBJ did beat Goldwater, you have to go back to Franklin Roosevelt's second election to find another instance of the Democrats carrying the state. With significant help from Perot, Clinton twice got within 6-7%, but beyond that the closest it has been is when Carter was within 8% of Ford.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2/15/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | 525 RV | 4.2% | Bush | 51% | Unnamed Democrat | 45% | Bush +6 |
3/24/04 | Bellwether Poll | Link | 600 LV | 4.0% | Bush | 52% | Kerry | 37% | Bush +15 |
Punditry: Indiana opens back up, and will likely not be back to single digits unless Kerry selects Evan Bayh as his running mate. Strong Advantage for Bush.
Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.
Polling Data:
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Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5/03 | Badger Poll | Link | Adults | 4% | Bush | 53% | Unnamed Democrat | 42% | Bush +11 |
10/28/03 | Badger Poll | Link | Adults | 4% | Bush | 46% | Unnamed Democrat | 45% | Bush +1 |
1/27/04 | Badger Poll | Link | Adults | 4% | Bush | 38% | Unnamed Democrat | 54% | Dem +16 |
3/24/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 43% | Unnamed Democrat | 46% | Kerry +3 |
3/31/04 | Badger Poll | Link | 500 Adults, Nader not an option | 4% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 41% | Bush +6 |
3/31/04 | Badger Poll | Link | 500 Adults, Nader an option | 4% | Bush | 49% | Kerry | 45% | Bush +4 |
Punditry: Wisconsin continues to oscillate between the candidates, with the President currently getting the better end of the deal, opening up a lead that is one span of the MoE (or larger). I'd like to see another poll validating this result before I move it to leaning. Slight Advantage for Bush. From the time of the last Badger Poll, Kerry's favorable/unfavorable ratings slid from 42%/18% to 37%/34%. (Bush's current numbers are 52%/41%).
Background: No state, not even Florida, was closer in the last election than New Mexico. Prior to Clinton breaking through, the Republicans had carried the state for 6 consecutive elections, often by significant margins. Both times that Clinton carried New Mexico, the Perot vote played a significant factor. The strong showing Perot made here suggests that this is a state concerned with Mexico, both from an immigration perspective and from a jobs perspective.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9/12/03 | Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque | Link | 400 RV | 5% | Bush | 40% | Unnamed Democrat | 43% | Dem +3 |
3/15/04 | Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque* | Link | 400 RV | 5% | Bush | 43% | Kerry | 44% | Kerry +1 |
4/1/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV, Nader an option | 4% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 45% | Bush +1 |
4/1/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV, Nader not an option | 4% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 47% | Push |
Punditry: One could almost get the idea for the New Mexico polls that it was a tightly contested state. One would be right. The only thing surprising here, is that while the national polls have shown significant movement first one way and then another, and in some states we have seen movement, New Mexico has not budged. Tossup due to the last poll being +1 Kerry and this one being +1 Bush.
Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.
Both last time and this time, New Hampshire started as a slight advantage for Bush. When looking at the other offices, it is hard to understand just why this state is not more firmly in his control. The Republicans hold all the House seats, both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, and hold all major executive branch offices, while having a 37%-26% registration advantage.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4/27/03 | Franklin Pierce College | Link | 600 RV | 4% | Bush | 42% | Unnamed Democrat | 42% | Even |
9/11/03 | American Research Group | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 50% | Unnamed Democrat | 36% | Bush +14 |
10/16/03 | Research 2000 | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 39% | Bush +12 |
12/10/03 | American Research Group | NA | RV | 4% | Bush | 50% | Unnamed Democrat | 38% | Bush +12 |
10/16/03 | Research 2000 | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 39% | Bush +12 |
1/20/04 | Associated Press | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 55% | Kerry | 40% | Bush +15 |
2/20/04 | University of New Hampshire | Link | 511 LV | 4% | Bush | 38% | Kerry | 53% | Kerry +15 |
3/18/04 | American Research Group | Link | 463 RV, Nader an option | 4.6% | Bush | 45% | Kerry | 39% | Bush +6 |
3/18/04 | American Research Group | Link | 463 RV, Nader not an option | 4.6% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 45% | Bush +2 |
4/1/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV, Nader an option | 4% | Bush | 48% | Kerry | 43% | Bush +5 |
4/1/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV, Nader an option | 4% | Bush | 48% | Kerry | 45% | Bush +3 |
Punditry: The more New Hampshire polls are released, the more that the University of New Hampshire poll looks more like an outlier or a poll with flawed methodology. These results are right in line with the previous ARG poll. Given a data set like this, New Hampshire is right on the cusp between Slight Advantage for Bush and leaning Bush. For prudence, I will keep it in the former.
Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.
The slight advantage for the Democrats is a step up from the leaning Gore position at the start of ECB 2000. Minnesota's legislative seats are split right down the middle. Half of the Representatives, half of the Senate seats, and one of the state legislative chambers are held by each party. Most of the important executive branch offices are held by Republicans with the exception of Attorney General.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1/26/04 | Mason-Dixon | NA | LV | 4% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 43% | Kerry +2 |
3/25/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 500 LV | 4.5% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +3 |
4/2/04 | Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll | Link | 562 LV | 4.1% | Bush | 38% | Kerry | 50% | Kerry +12 |
Punditry: Kerry's lead expands in the land of 10,000 lakes. Still, the lead is so large compared to what we have seen before that I assume that at least a portion of this result is just a favorable sample for Kerry-- something that the Star-Trib polls are known to occasionally have. As Bill Salisbury of the Pioneer Press reported
[Norm] Coleman, R-Minn., said a Minnesota Poll taken right before his 2002 election showed Walter Mondale beating him by 6 percentage points; Coleman won by 3 points. In 2000, he said, the poll showed Democrat Al Gore winning the state by 10 points; he won by 2.5 points.I'd expect to see the next poll show it to be tighter, more along the lines of one showing Minnesota to be Leaning for Kerry. If the next poll surprises me and validates this one, then I will move it to the strong category.
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F | ![]() |
Ohio |
---|---|---|---|
Electoral Votes: 20 | |||
2000 Result | |||
Bush 50% | |||
Gore 46% |
Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat three times. Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2/7/03 | Ohio Poll | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 59% | Unnamed Democrat | 36% | Bush +23 |
9/19/03 | Ohio Poll | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 57% | Kerry | 38% | Bush +19 |
3/16/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 500 LV | 4.5% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 45% | Kerry +4 |
3/24/04 | Ohio Poll | Link | 632 RV | 3.9% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 46% | Kerry +2 |
4/2/04 | Columbus Dispatch | Link | 3,344 RV | 2% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 45% | BUsh +1 |
Punditry: Steady as she goes, Ohio is in prime position to get a huge infusion of cash into its economy, as the campaigns pour money into trying to convince voters. Given the series of polling results, it is impossible to say with any certainty which candidate has the edge right now. Tossup.
Background: Colorado is generally considered to be winnable for the Democrats, but historically this has proven to be a solid GOP bastion. Only three times since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was President has a Democrat carried this state (Truman, Johnson, and Clinton against Bush- with a big thanks to Perot taking 23% of the tally).
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9/8-10/03 | Colorado Democratic Party | NA | RV | 4% | Bush | 42% | Unnamed Democrat | 35% | Bush +7 |
12/15-16/03 | Public Opinion Strategies | NA | LV | 4.9% | Bush | 46% | Unnamed Democrat | 36% | Bush +10 |
3/16/04 | McLauglin & Associates (R) | NA | 500 LV | 4.5% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 42% | Bush +4 |
4/2/04 | Public Opinion Strategies | Link | 500 LV | 4.5% | Bush | 49% | Kerry | 40% | Bush +9 |
Punditry: Colorado opens back up a bit, but not enough to reclassify from Leaning Towards Bush. The Democrats are talking about expanding the fight to Colorado, Louisiana, and Arkansas. I think this is smart from a Presidential campaign perspective; a camp cannot win a state without trying to win the state. The Republicans should welcome this too, however. Arkansas may not be as prime a choice as the Democrats think, since a good portion of the Presidential support they have gotten lately there are attributable to Clinton's presence on the ticket (and, to a lesser degree, his Vice-President). Colorado and Louisiana are states where there are competitive Senate races this fall, and the inevitable linking of the Presidential and Senatorial races that will occur helps the Republicans in both. Louisiana often is open to the Democrat message but is still mainly pro-life. Similarly out in Colorado, Democrat Ken Salazar has tried to innoculate himself on the abortion issue, which Kerry's unabashed support of NARAL will undermine.
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F | ![]() |
Florida |
---|---|---|---|
Electoral Votes: 27 | |||
2000 Result | |||
Bush 48.85% | |||
Gore 48.84% |
Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.
In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4/29/03 | Mason-Dixon | Link | RV | 5% | Bush | 53% | Unnamed Democrat | 38% | Bush +15 |
12/3/03 | Schroth & Associates | Link | 800 RV | 3.5% | Bush | 43% | Unnamed Democrat | 37% | Bush +6 |
1/15/04 | Rasmussen Reports | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 47% | Unnamed Democrat | 45% | Bush +2 |
2/27/04 | Research 2000 | Link | 500 LV | 4% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 42% | Bush +5 |
3/4/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 45% | Kerry +1 |
3/4/04 | Schroth & Associates | Link | 800 RV | 3.5% | Bush | 43% | Kerry | 49% | Kerry +6 |
3/14/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 400 LV | 5% | Bush | 45% | Kerry | 48% | Kerry +3 |
4/1/04 | Mason-Dixon | Link | 625 RV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 43% | Bush +8 |
Punditry: The Mason-Dixon poll shows that with Bob Graham on the ticket, the gap narrows from 8 points to 3 points. I am wary of this poll's results, since it is such a marked change from other recent polls. As such, I won't move Florida over to the category the number would suggest. Instead, I'll call it Slight Advantage for Bush.
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F | ![]() |
Michigan |
---|---|---|---|
Electoral Votes: 17 | |||
2000 Result | |||
Gore 51% | |||
Bush 46% |
Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.
Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5/26/03 | Epic/MRA | Link | 400 RV | 5% | Bush | 48% | Unnamed Democrat | 41% | Bush +7 |
9/21/03 | Mitchell Research | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 44% | Unnamed Democrat | 49% | Dem +5 |
12/10/03 | Survey USA | Link | 724 LV | 3.7% | Bush | 53% | Kerry | 43% | Bush +10 |
2/3/04 | Survey USA | Link | 724 LV | 3.7% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 51% | Dem +5 |
2/22/04 | Epic/MRA | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 45% | Kerry | 49% | Dem +4 |
3/1/04 | Mitchell | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 40% | Kerry | 46% | Kerry +6 |
3/14/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 500 LV | 4.5% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 48% | Kerry +4 |
3/14/04 | Marketing Resource Group | Link | 600 RV | 4.1% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 45% | Bush +2 |
4/1/04 | Epic/MRA | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 45% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +2 |
4/4/04 | Survey USA | Link | 536 LV | 4.3% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 51% | Kerry +10 |
Punditry: Quite a different result in polls that slightly overlapped time-wise, between Epic/MRA and SurveyUSA. Odds are that the 'real' result is somewhere in between those two, which means that Michigan currently Leans toward Kerry
Summary Table |
---|
Effective National Popular Results: Bush 46.1%, Kerry 43.0% |
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Kerry E | F Bush | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Safe | Strong | Lean | Slight | Tossup | Slight | Lean | Strong | Safe |
DC (3) | DE (3) | NY (31) UD36-B34 1/7/04 |
- | WV (5) B47-K46 3/24/04 |
NJ (15) B41-UD38 1/13/04 |
AR (6) | SC (8) B52-UD36 7/28/03 |
AK (3) |
HI (4) | VT (3) HD50-B38 10/2/03 |
OR (7) K45-B40 3/5/04 |
- | NM (5) B46-K45 4/1/04 |
PA (21) B46-K40 3/29/04 |
VA (13) B48-WC33 12/3/03 |
LA (9) B50-UD34 11/9/03 |
ND (3) |
MA (12) K56-B38 12/03 |
ME (4) K51-B38 3/4/04 |
CA (55) K53-B44 3/11/04 |
- | OH (20) B46-K45 4/2/04 |
WI (10) B49-K45 3/31/04 |
GA (15) B47-UD43 2/4/04 |
MS (6) B49-UD29 12/22/03 |
NE (5) |
RI (4) K53-B31 2/7/04 |
IL (21) K47-B39 3/13/04 |
IA (7) K51-B41 3/23/04 |
- | - | NH (4) B48-K43 4/1/04 |
NC (15) B51-K43 3/11/04 |
SD (3) B50-UD39 2/5/04 |
WY (3) |
- | CT (7) K52-B33 3/28/04 |
MD (10) K48-B43 3/24/04 |
- | - | FL (27) B51-K43 4/1/04 |
NV (5) B49-K38 3/17/04 |
KY (8) B57-UD41 2/16/04 |
MT (3) B52-UD27 5/16/03 |
- | - | WA (11) K50-B44 3/25/04 |
- | - | - | AZ (10) B51-K42 3/18/04 |
OK (7) B50-K40 3/1/04 |
TX (34) B54-K35 3/6/04 |
- | - | MN (10) K50-B38 4/2/04 |
- | - | - | TN (11) B52-K41 3/22/04 |
KS (6) B57-K39 3/4/04 |
ID (4) B55-K23 3/17/04 |
- | - | MI (17) K51-B41 4/4/04 |
- | - | - | MO (11) B49-K42 3/23/04 |
IN (11) B52-K37 3/24/04 |
AL (9) B59-K27 3/18/04 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | CO (9) B49-K40 4/3/04 |
- | UT (5) B66-K24 3/25/04 |
Totals | ||||||||
Kerry States | Battleground States | Bush States | ||||||
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||||||||
23 | 38 | 138 | 0 | 30 | 77 | 95 | 58 | 69 |
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209 | 107 | 222 |
According to the Gallup poll, which Presidential race featured the most lead changes from January through election day?An easy one- Bush/Gore 2000. Nixon/Kennedy had only one fewer lead change though.
This week's quiz: What two consecutive elections featured the smallest percentage of states that changed from voting for one party in the first but another party in the second?
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Daood! Don't be a fuddy duddy. Mail a check to or you can use PayPal at Jimrob@psnw.com |
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Kerry 48% Bush 42% (Rasmussen Daily Poll)
It is when polls show no variance that I start to wonder if they are massaging the data.
Obviously, the Rasmussen poll is not good news. The confluence of its movement with outside events that make it easy to understand the movement make it less likely that it was just a random variance. That said, if people are not expecting there to be peaks and valleys in the polling numbers the rest of the way, they need to adjust their expectations. Expect a bit of a roller coaster.
You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? You, lieutenant Weinberg? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Santiago, and you curse the Marines. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that Santiago's death, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall -- you need me on that wall.
We use words like "honor," "code," "loyalty." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon and stand the post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you're entitled to!
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I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll
[This article is part three of a three part sedries. Part one is here. Part two is here.]Flip a Coin
I conclude my review of the April 2000 Electoral College Breakdown by examining the tossup states. One of the most frequent criticisms I have received while doing the ECB is over my decision to not use the "Slight Advantage" states in calculating each candidate's total. Indeed, as a nod to the fact that people were going to take my numbers and add these states to the candidate having the slight advantage anyway, I have started to include the totals "with tossups", although I give these totals less prominence.
The benchmark I have been using for this look backwards has been the first April report of 2000. In that, seven states were listed as having a "Slight Advantage for Bush" (in the old terminology, "Tossup Bush"): Washington, West Virginia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Geogia, Maine, and Iowa. Of these states, two moved more comfortably into the Bush column (Ga, NC), Bush held two by small margins (WV, NH) and three went for Gore (Wa, Me, and Ia, barely).
There were two states that were designated on the other side of the tossup spectrum. Arkansas was a "Slight Advantage for Gore" at the time, but it slipped away to the Republican ledger. The other was Florida, which also was a Bush win, by an infamously slim margin.
There was a single state that was listed as dead even: Wisconsin. Gore carried it in a tough race. Of the states which had a "Slight" designation, the leader won 4 and lost 5. Most of them remained very competitive.
Of course, a sample size this small can give results that lead to incorrect conclusions. More meaningful results are gathered by expanding the sample. I can accomplish this by traversing forward; intuitively, if a slight lead has predictive qualities, this trait should be enhanced closer to the election. However, the last two ECB reports (done election day and three days prior) showed more of the same. Bush carred 4 of 8 in one and 3 of 7 in the other of those where his lead was slight. Gore won 3 of 4 in one and 3 of 5 in the other for those where he had a slight upper hand.
Going back further, Bush won 13 of the 27 states that were ever designated "Tossup Bush" from April onward. Gore carried 13 of 20 ever designated "Tossup Gore". Of the 29 states that were ever designated in any of the three "Tossup" categories, Bush carried 13 and Gore 16, despite the fact that over the course of the ECB states fell into the slight Bush side twice as often as to the slight Gore side. About the only time where a tossup state was not, in fact, a tossup was when the state fell into the tossup category just for a single poll, and for the rest of the election cycle had remained squarely in a candidate's camp- states like Mississippi, South Dakota, and New York. The choice I have made to not go soley on the poll numbers for ECB2004 was made to address matters such as those. When a state is classified as a slight advantage for either candidate or as even, then the state could go either way. If this election plays out like 2000 did, which seems to be the consensus of the punditry and is backed by the recent election trends I detailed in the earlier portions of this series, then these states are all coin flips, with either side having an equal shot at putting together the right combination of advertising, policies, and get-out-the-vote efforts to win the state.
The knowledge of what the designations indicate, assuming that the election will unfold much as 2000 (and, as shown earlier, 1996) did, allows me to simulate election results using a Monte Carlo model. A Monte Carlo simulation is one where odds of individual events are used as inputs, and then many iterations are done with the results of each individual event being random chance within those odds. Here is a review of what the various designations mean at this stage of the election cycle:
For the first pass of the Monte Carlo simulation, these guidelines were used to produce the following inputs (values are percent chance that Bush will carry the state): Maine (16.7%); Oregon, Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, and Michigan (33.3%); West Virginia, New Mexico, Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Florida (50%); Nevada, Arizona, and Missouri (66.7%). Bush was given a 100% chance of winning 196 electoral votes, and Kerry was given a 100% chance of winning 153 electoral votes. Running through 1,000,000 simulation iterations reveals that, under these assumptions, Bush would win the election 80.1% of the time, and the average electoral result would be 291.5-246.5. An unlikely-but-not-impossible 1.2% of the time, there was an electoral college deadlock of 269 apiece.
This still includes everyone's favorite sore thumb that sticks out in the recent ECBs- New Jersey. What if the conventional wisdom is correct, and instead of Bush having a real shot there, he has no shot? I ran the simulations again, this time ascribing to New Jersey a 0% chance of Bush taking the 15 electoral votes. This changes the results substantially, with Bush now winning 60.4% of the time, Kerry 38.0% of the time, and 1.6% of the time resulting in a tie. The average tally was 276.5-261.5.
I ran a few more scenerios. Keeping NJ firmly with Kerry, I then examined what would be the impact on if Kerry expanded his advertising to states that his campaign has made overtures about contending but has yet to go on the air. Arkansas and Colorado, by the guidelines, would get a 33% chance of a Kerry win, while by the guidelines Louisiana would be wasted money (as would any money Bush would throw at California, for example). The results? 53.0% Bush, 45.4% Kerry, 1.6% tied, 271.5-266.5 average. If we up the chances of Kerry winning Louisiana to 16.7% (as if it was a strong Bush state that had been close in 2000), then the numbers change to an extremely close battle, with Bush winning 50.7%, Kerry 47.8%, 1.5% tied and a 270-268 average. Finally, I ran one last scenerio. For that one, I assumed that Arkansas and Colorado would end up being contested, that New Jersey would go to Kerry, that Louisiana would be contested but it would go Bush anyway. I then dropped North Carolina down from a certainty to being a complete tossup. I ran this one since the analysis I did last week showed that a Vice Presidential pick can make a 4-10 point swing in the gap, and if that held true and Kerry were to select Edwards, North Carolina would move into the tossup region. Under these conditions, Kerry wins more than he loses, taking 56.6% of the simulations to 42.0% for Bush, with the average result being 274.0-264.0.
At this point, President Bush is still the favorite to win re-election. However, Kerry is close enough to where specific ad buys and infrastructure spending as well as his running mate selection can make a significant difference. I anticipate that this election is going to get closer rather than open up to where either candidate has a substantial lead. If this does happen, then a tremendous amount of media attention will be given to swing voters and various issues that supposedly appeal to them. That will not be what decides the election, however. Nor will it be random (although random events such as fluke snowstorms in New Mexico can certainly play a part). The election will be won by which side is more effective in getting out the vote in the contested states.