Free Republic

The election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for Arizona, Georgia and Nevada toward Vice President Harris as she continues to close the polling gap with former President Trump. All three states had been considered “lean Republican” in early July, while President Biden was still in the race and falling further behind Trump both on the national level and in the key battleground states. But with polls showing Harris getting back within the margin of error of Trump, or in some cases slightly ahead, the three swing states have been moved to be a “Toss Up.” “For the first...

The gap between Pennsylvania GOP Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz and Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is closing and moving to a "toss up" contest, according to a new Cook Political Report Tuesday. "When we shifted our Pennsylvania Senate rating to Lean Democrat about six weeks ago, we included this key caveat — Republican spending against Democratic nominee John Fetterman had yet to ramp up, and that while Republican Mehmet Oz still has a hefty problem with his own favorables, that it's not out of the question that this could move back [to toss up] as the election nears," Cook...

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report is changing its rating of Pennsylvania’s Senate race from a “toss up” to “lean Democrat” fewer than three months before the November midterms. The development comes against the backdrop of the social media campaign that Democratic candidate John Fetterman has waged against opponent Mehmet Oz (R) that has sought to portray the celebrity as a carpetbagger from New Jersey who is out of touch with voters. Fetterman’s campaign has enlisted big New Jersey names like former “Jersey Shore” cast member Nicole “Snooki” LaValle and musician Steven Van Zandt to troll the celebrity doctor while raising...

There are a lot of great political stories out there right now, so it’s easy to miss that the biggest one might be happening below the federal level. Nationally, what appears to be the blue Democratic tidal wave is arguably really a pink wave, with women voters, donors, and candidates driving much of the movement in favor of Democrats. We are seeing eye-popping gender gaps, with the Republican edge among men dwarfed by the Democratic advantage among women. In the mid-September NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll, men narrowly favored Republicans in preference for control of the House, 47 to...

House Republicans struggling to preserve their majority are facing a wave of Democratic money and enthusiasm in suburban districts across the country, as well-educated and moderate voters consider new checks on President Trump. An analysis of the types of districts in play shows that two-thirds of the Republican-held seats that a top election handicapper sees as vulnerable are in suburban areas. That has Republicans on defense in an area where Trump has bled support, even in the 2016 election he won. The Cook Political Report lists 64 Republican-held seats as either pure toss-ups, or leaning slightly toward Democrats or Republicans....

President Trump likes to complain about “Fake News.” So, here’s some very real news for him: Republican control of Capitol Hill and the White House is based on a “fake majority.” “A majority of the Senate now represents just 18 percent of the nation’s population,” David Wasserman, an editor for The Cook Political Report, wrote in a recent New York Times column. He added that the crucial Senate seats this November would be “much whiter, more rural and pro-Trump than the nation as a whole. In effect, geography could again be Mr. Trump’s greatest protector: After all, the Senate —...