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Attitudes of the electorate have changed almost not at all for this entire year.

Surveys say it is mostly about inflation with a secondary measured displeasure about all the prosecutions.

Surveys also say the critical truth that has disrupted the thinking in both parties. The electorate identifies as 45% independent and only about 26% each for Dems and GOP.

This is not about displeasure with cognition or displeasure with a debate performance. Replacing that candidate isn’t going to suddenly drag those Dems who became Independent back to the party.

Moving to independent measures the attitude about governance in general. The elites are being rejected, of either party.

So the debate has moved almost no numbers and ditto the gunshot. Those minds out there are not waiting to be changed by things like that. A party that has long term incumbents retire, erasing their elites, is a party that would get the attention of the growth of independents.

And of course this is not going to happen. The political careerists don’t have that principle.

ChatGPT says FDR’s 1936 nomination acceptance speech was 9000 words. Trump’s 8000 words.

ChatGPT says Trump’s speech was about 8000 words long.

FDR’s nomination speech in 1936’s convention was 9000 words long.

There isn’t ANYTHING that is going to come out of Washington or the media in general from now to November that is not intended to influence the numbers.

Note Langford — trying to change the subject from his Comprehensive Immigration Reform.

They are all Swamp Never Trumpers. Ignore them and anything they are saying.

Look, for the gazillionth time, the polls do not show a crushing loss for Biden, and he hasn’t even had his convention yet.

And no, no one is going to kill him. If you were funding an assassination and odds were strong that even if you were successful, Trump would win over the replacement, why fund THAT.

The thing to fund would be a few more tries at Trump. Not at Biden.

People do forget.

All conventions are like this. Non stop praise of the nominee, declaring God is on their side against the evil others, and tears when the nominee speaks.

The only way to measure what is happening is with polls, and they are moving only a few % post debate/post gunshots.

The source of Democrat concern is 2020 had them claim a 4.5% win and the polls immediately before the election said Biden +7.5%. Now, within the MOE. That means tied.

That also means a 4.5% gain, and that much gain will turn the battlegrounds.

When looking at polls you can do 3 things:

1) Declare they mean nothing because of fraud. Which is wrong. They do mean something. They measure attitudes. Whether or not the attitudes define the vote counts IS A SEPERATE ISSUE AND HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE MEASUREMENT.

2) You can declare the poll’s result to be definitive. It says Trump leads by 2%? Then he leads by 2%. The problem with that is different pollsters take different samples and get different answers.

3) The correct way to look at polls is to look at each poll’s previous measure. If it says Trump+4, and in early June it said Trump+4, then it would mean the debate and the gunshots changes no minds in their sample definition. Point being, what you get from polls is trends. Not an exact number. Trends, and trends are everything. They tell you what messages moved a few attitudes.

>>>>“The Trump haters are a huge number and they don’t care a bit about Biden.”

So, what you mean to say is that democrats will vote for biden out of pure SPITE and a brain filled with anger and bile.

The deep state/media campaign against DJT has been effective so I am inclined to believe it.

>>>>

Essentially yes, but it is best we understand this is not new. This kind of demonization has gone on for centuries.

Ma Ma Where’s my Pa? Living in the WH ha ha ha

Attack on Grover Cleveland regarding an illegitimate child.

So there is no value in sneering in disgust at them. The energy would be better spent on registration drives.

Never forget, turnout is usually under 70%. There people out there, 30% of the electorate, who do not vote.

There is no reason for him to drop out.

The Trump lead is in the MOE, and Biden has not yet even had his convention.

IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT HIS COGNITION IS. The Trump haters are a huge number and they don’t care a bit about Biden.

The only real problem for the Dems is the 2020 Biden lead of 4.5% (the final polls were 7.5%) has been erased, and of course that hits the battlegrounds.

But that is not a Biden issue. The only thing going on here is inflation and the people objecting to the prosecutions. A new candidate doesn’t affect those at all. Biden does not trail because he is less charismatic. He trails because of the prosecutions — as would any replacement.

And so — there is NO reason for him to withdraw. It will not matter.

I did notice that. When you start looking at those details you are shrinking a sample size that may have been something like 1200 nationally to a few hundred or a few 10s in particular states.

MOE becomes enormous.

Biden has only told them 50X that he is focused on the campaign.

A lot of this is building up an image of him as a steadfast and courageous fighter who is committed to his principles and will not run away. They need that to combat the assassination photo.

And yes, btw, the hatred of Trump is profound. There is almost no one in that array who will have their minds changed, and so the numbers are not going to move hardly at all.

The race is within the MOE of just about every poll — because of the above. There is no reason for him to drop out.

Apples to Apples — CBS July 3 poll has Trump +2. So this is a +3 after the gunshot, and the July 3 number was post debate.

These are not big moves. The world has not decided on Trump, and Biden has not yet even had his convention.

Biden popular vote 2020 read +4.5. This is a huge move from 2020, but nearly all of that is from lawfare. There is no sudden love for Trump or rage about Biden’s cognition.

Nobody cares about the things people want to spend time on. This is just anger about inflation and anger at prosecutions. The border is likely not moving many votes. There was never an embracing of what Biden did at the border, but there never was. There has been no change in that.

It’s all inflation and lawfare.

People keep asking this and it doesn’t really make sense. The convention has not yet been held. They don’t have a nominee to put on ballots.

The clamor to move him out is intended to build the imagery of steadfast courage and commitment to public service.

2020 was Biden +4.5. T+2 is a big change for sure, but there is no imaginable way to recover 4.5 for anyone.

They are doing this right. Build him up as a figure of courage. Praise him non stop at their convention.

There just isn’t enough there for him to quit. Reagan was +18 vs Mondale who actually got 1 state. Nobody demanded that Mondale back out and the polls for him were far worse.

The Dems are playing this right.

Don’t y’all see how they are creating an image of steadfast courage for him, and they need it now, facing that assassination photo.

The Reuters Ipsos poll of May 25 showed a tie. Pre Debate and Pre gunshot. A day ago their poll, same sample looking for a changing of attitudes, showed T+2.

That’s all. T+2. That’s all the debate did and all the gunshot did.

They will manufacture courage for him and he has not yet even had his convention bounce.

There is no reason for him to withdraw — though unless Biden is +3 he will lose in the battlegrounds.

The only really important thing about polls is what their previous ones read.

It doesn’t matter what their sample is. What matters is if there is any indication that sample is changing within it over time.

Reuters/Ipsos 2 days ago read T+2. In late May it read tie.

So after the debate and after the gunshot, only 2% moved.

This is not enough to compel anyone dropping out, especially with Biden yet to have a convention bounce.

People don’t care about Biden. They hate or love Trump.

My read on a Trump win and what it means in Ukraine:

He is money focused. There will be no more serious US aid, and he will likely try to intercept any already appropriated.

He will not urge Europe to shut off their own aid, provided it does not prevent Europe from achieving their 2% GDP defense requirement under NATO rules.

He will propose negotiations immediately, with it clear there will be no more money. He will not demand Zelensky disappear. He will be willing to “address Russia’s security concerns”.

He will make it clear that US oil companies who would like to be involved developing Russian oil fields will not be prevented from doing so by any sanctions, but they will get no favored treatment vs Rosneft or Lukoil — or Sinopec.

He will make clear that if China is sending electronic items to Russia’s military he will oppose that ONLY if it means those items are in short supply and cannot come to the US. If the US suffers scarcity of those items, he will not accept Russia having priority.

He will declassify any and all information about the Nordstream event.

A poll of who people thinks will win is not a poll of support.

This is bogus.

I have seen only one proper poll after the gunshot. It showed Trump +2% nationally. This is nearly no change from pre gunshot.

And it is nowhere near enough to drive Biden out.

Folks talking 45 state win are not being reasonable.

It required Reagan to have an 18% popular vote win to get 49 states. It’s currently, post gunshot, a 2% Trump lead.

There are 10-15 utterly safe Biden states and that’s with a +2% Trump lead.

I have seen one poll post assassination attempt.

Trump +2.

This is nothing. The Dems have not even had their convention bounce.

The polls do not say Biden must drop out.

For God’s sake, a nominee that loses in the general never gets another chance when they are not incumbent.

That’s the way it is, and that’s why no one is going to want the nomination from Biden. Not even Kamala. She knows Trump leads. If she takes the nomination and loses, her future is done.

They will not find anyone who wants it. Biden will be the nominee.