A poll of who people thinks will win is not a poll of support.
This is bogus.
I have seen only one proper poll after the gunshot. It showed Trump +2% nationally. This is nearly no change from pre gunshot.
And it is nowhere near enough to drive Biden out.
The electoral college is what matters.
A 2% popular vote lead for a Republican these days would be an electoral college rout.
That translates into a 5% or higher lead in the 49 states other than California.