Free Republic

“South Korea is considering to supply arms to Ukraine.”

The Democracies awaken from their slumber.

Kyiv Independent reports:

“The German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall received a framework contract from the Bundeswehr for 155 mm artillery ammunition worth up to 8.5 billion euros ($9.1 billion), the company said on June 20...

...The company called the latest order the largest in its history.

“This large-volume framework contract underlines Rheinmetall’s leading role as an ammunition supplier in Germany and our position as the world’s largest manufacturer of artillery ammunition,” Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said.

Deliveries of the shells are to begin in early 2025. The German government will be the primary purchaser, which will then provide part of its supplies to Ukraine. The Netherlands, Estonia, and Denmark are also participating in the order, the company said.

The “entire value chain for artillery ammunition” will be produced at a plant in Unterluess, Lower Saxony, which opened in February. The factory is expected to reach a capacity of 100,000 projectiles per year in its second year of production and later increase it to 200,000 projectiles per year (only one of several distributed facilities).

Several Western defense companies have been ramping up their defense production amid rising tensions with Russia and Ukraine’s growing needs, with a particular focus on 155 mm shells and other ammunition.”

“South Korea is considering to supply arms to Ukraine.”

South Korea’s GDP is nearly as big as Russia’s, and like 30 times the size of North Korea’s.

South Korea has a great Defense industrial Base, and is kind of exploding onto the Global scene now as an Arms Exporter. It is a great economic opportunity for South Korea.

This Russian move plays right into the hands of those in South Korea who are in favor of seizing this moment, to grab a big slice of this growing market demand.

Few places on Earth have done rapid industrialization better than South Korea. It has been said that all of the major industrial powers at the end of the 20th Century, were also industrial powers at the end of the 19th Century - except Korea (or arguably, China).

The old boy network of elite families from the long period of of Military dictatorship (from the 50’s to the 80’s) are still prominent in the large industrial conglomerates (Chaebol), which still have standing formal mobilization missions in case of war.

If they set their minds to ramp up military production, it will blow the doors off anything that the Russians could muster.

It seems to me that lately Ukraine has been hitting more oil storage depots that support Operational combat forces, rather than refineries with more of a Strategic/Economic objective.

Maybe the priority is to halt Russian territorial gains in Donbas, perhaps they are setting conditions for another Operation, or possibly Allies want to keep Global oil prices low for political reasons.

“Somebody will likely pack it with a Mondo explosive charge, or arm it with weapons (like torpedoes)”

Prototyping already on contract.

Anduril Industries
2/8/2024

“The U.S. Navy selected Anduril and its Dive family of large autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) to prototype distributed, long-range, persistent underwater sensing and payload delivery in contested environments.”

Putin lands in North Korea looking for support, weapons, validation.

The DIVE-LD (LD for "large displacement" - it is however functionally also long-distance and long-duration) AUV (Autonomous Underwater Vehicle), measuring 48 inches in diameter and 19 feet long and designed for operations down to 6,000 m water depth (the deepest part of the Black Sea is 2,212 meters).

DARPA has been shepherding its development for a few years. It won the swim-off as best in class, and Anduril stepped in and bought the company in 2022, bringing bigger financial backing to the company, as well as cutting edge AI capabilities, and a deep Defense Acquisition team.

Anduril said (in 2022) it will integrate Dive’s DIVE-LD modular and customizable AUV into its Lattice OS backbone, an autonomy software that uses computer vision, machine learning and mesh networking to fuse real-time data into a single, autonomous operating picture that can be scaled as needed.

It can be used for long-range oceanographic sensing, seabed mapping, undersea battlespace awareness, mine countermeasures and anti-submarine warfare. Somebody will likely pack it with a Mondo explosive charge, or arm it with weapons (like torpedoes), if they have not already.

“Azov oil still burning 20 hours after the drone strikes.”

Although most of the more than two million drones going to the Ukrainian Military this year will be small drones for the Battle Front, some number, likely much larger than last year, will be long range strike drones.

I am guessing that swarms of 100 or more will be coming on some attacks soon.

Drone Wars are coming for the Submariners too.

Naval News reports:

“Anduril To Open Large Scale Production Facility For AUV (Autonomous Undewater Vehicles), 17 Jun 2024

The Rhode Island production facility will enable Anduril to (immediately) increase production to 200 AUVs per year, and create more than 100 jobs over the next five years. The factory announcement comes amid growing demand for Anduril’s AUVs, including an $18.6 million contract with the U.S. Navy.

Anduril press release

Anduril Industries is announcing a new manufacturing facility to support large-scale production of its Dive-LD family of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) at Quonset Point, Rhode Island. By investing in a scaled production facility ahead of need, Anduril will be able to stay ahead of customer demand and deliver on orders with unprecedented speed.

AUVs are transforming maritime deterrence by providing an affordable, distributed, and adaptable undersea capability that complements the U.S. and allied submarine fleet...

...“Affordable, distributed mass is a central tenet of undersea deterrence and we look forward to supporting large-scale, cost-effective AUV deployments with our new facility,” said Shane Arnott, Senior Vice President at Anduril Industries. “Our Maritime Division continues to develop advanced undersea capabilities and, with large contract awards both in the United States and Australia, we are committed to the mass manufacturing of those proven capabilities at speed and at scales that matter.”

Anduril AUVs are designed from the ground-up for production at scale, with a heavy emphasis on commercial-off-the-shelf components with robust supply chains, a modular design, and advanced, scalable manufacturing techniques that enable rapid iterations based on customer needs. The facility is strategically located in close proximity to Anduril’s maritime engineering center in Quincy, Massachusetts, ensuring that products can be rapidly updated based on customer feedback, even in the midst of full-rate production. The production facility will be able to accommodate the complete lifecycle of the hull — from R&D through sustainment — with dedicated onsite testing facilities, service bays, and more. This manufacturing facility will enable Anduril to produce AUVs at scale and create a paradigm shift in maritime deterrence that places a greater emphasis on unmanned and autonomous systems.

The factory announcement comes amid growing demand from defense and commercial customers. The U.S. Navy, for example, recently awarded Anduril an $18.6 million contract to cover an initial buy of Dive AUVs through the Defense Innovation Unit’s (DIU) Large Displacement Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (LDUUV) prototyping effort, following a “swim-off” competition late last year.

“Over the last 6 months, the U.S. Navy, in partnership with DIU and Congress, has driven an aggressive program timeline to put vendors on contract, acquire capabilities, and rapidly demonstrate those capabilities with warfighters,” said Nick Stoner, Director at Anduril Industries. “This contract is a fantastic example of how the U.S. Navy can incentivize industry to make capital investments and produce the kinds of undersea asymmetric advantages our Fleet Commanders need, on the timelines they need them.”

Driven by Anduril’s investment in long-range, autonomous undersea capabilities, the Dive family of AUVs has emerged as the leading solution for a variety of missions, including operational preparation of the environment, surveillance and reconnaissance, mine warfare, subsea and seabed warfare, seafloor mapping, and more. Now, with a larger manufacturing facility under construction, Anduril will be able to rapidly scale production and accelerate delivery to customers.

This announcement comes as Anduril continues to advance critical, distributed maritime missions around the world through large and extra large autonomous subsurface capabilities. Earlier this year, Anduril unveiled the first prototype Ghost Shark extra-large autonomous undersea vehicle, developed and delivered ahead of schedule and on-budget at its Sydney, Australia location in partnership with the Royal Australian Navy, the Advanced Strategic Capabilities Accelerator, and the Defence Science and Technology Group (DSTG).”

Looks like the next NATO Secretary General will be current (centre-right) Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, now that he has overcome the Hungarian spoiler vote, by agreeing to let Hungary opt out of (but not block) NATO support for Ukraine.

Kyiv Independent reports:

“Hungarian Prime Minister (Orban) endorsed Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s bid to be the next Secretary General of NATO, after Rutte said he supported Budapest opting out of NATO initiatives to support Ukraine, Orban announced on June 18.

Incumbent NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Hungary on June 12 for talks with Orban amid fears Budapest could derail future plans of support for Kyiv, having repeatedly obstructed assistance to Ukraine.

Orban told Stoltenberg that Hungary will not take part in any of the initiatives in support of Ukraine, but will not block them either. Stoltenberg said he accepted Hungary’s position...

...Orban said that “after yesterday’s (17 June) meeting in Brussels, Prime Minister Mark Rutte confirmed that he fully supports this deal and will continue to do so, should he become the next Secretary General of NATO.”

“In light of his pledge, Hungary is ready to support PM Rutte’s bid for NATO Secretary-General.”...

...Twenty-nine NATO members have already backed Rutte as Stoltenberg’s successor, with Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania long being the remaining holdouts.

Slovak President Peter Pellegrini also publicly backed Rutte’s candidacy on June 18.”

“Ukrainian Chief of the General Staff Anatoliy Barhylevych, stated recently that during the peak heat, Russian forces have lost up to 1740 wounded and killed soldiers in the Kharkiv direction in a single day, which is an insanely high rate of casualties”

Why the meat waves? As we have discussed before, as Russia’s stocks of main combat platforms (Armor, Aviation, Artillery) are depleted, they shift increasingly toward Light Infantry. That trend has been observed throughout this war.

But also, in the nearer term, as The Kyiv Post reports:

“Russia is pressing hard against Ukrainian defenses “to maximize the depletion” of Ukrainian troops before the gradual arrival of Western aid – the F-16 multirole fighters in particular – that might turn the war in Ukraine’s favor, said Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky.

In a Telegram announcement, Syrsky said that Russia maintained “active offensive actions of varying intensity” in the Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhivska and Vremivka sectors in the Donetsk region – a region Russia has claimed sovereignty through illegal referendums – in an attempt to seize territories and further degrade Ukrainian defense.

Syrsky said fighting on the Pokrovsk front has been particularly intense, where AFP reported that Moscow’s forces in the area are closing in on a key transit artery and supply routes linking civilian hubs north of the industrial territory to towns further south...

...“The enemy is well aware that as a result of the gradual receipt of a significant amount of weapons and military equipment from our partners, and the arrival of the first F-16s, which will strengthen our air defense, time will play in our favor and [the Kremlin’s] chances of success will decrease,” said Syrsky.

“Therefore, the [Russian force command staff] is currently making every effort to increase the intensity and expand the geography of hostilities to maximize the depletion of our troops, disrupt the training of reserves and prevent the transition to active offensive actions,” he said.”

Kyiv post reports:

“Russia now deploys only submarines instead of surface warships in the Black Sea as part of its new strategy under a new commander (Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk), said Ukrainian Naval Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk.

He said at present, Russia only has one missile carrier in the Black Sea capable of launching a total salvo of four Kalibr missiles. Instead, Moscow has a concentrated group of surface ships comprising three Buyan-M class cruise missile carriers and three large amphibious craft in the Sea of Azov.

“Russia is present in the Black Sea only at the expense of submarines. This can be considered a new [strategy] of the commander, who was appointed a few months ago. Accordingly, they cannot afford to be in the waters of the Black Sea,” said Dmytro Pletenchuk on national television.

On June 11, Kyiv Post reportedly that Russia re-deployed its surface vessels from the Black Sea to the land-locked Sea of Azov for “exercises”.”

“Ukraine is preparing ground for strikes on Crimea as F-16 fighter jets arrive”

We are halfway through June. The first F-16 sorties could be at any time from here on out.

Maybe that is why Russia is offering that bounty now.

Ukrainians will probably have to keep those birds moving when they do arrive, as Russia will likely throw the kitchen sink at them, once they are in Country.

IDF controls the Philadelphi Corridor to cut off Hamas military resupply through Egypt, and is reducing the last two standing Hamas Battalions in Rafah.

We seem to be just weeks away from the end of Hamas as a standing military, and its return to being an undercover terrorist organization - a significant new phase of the conflict.

With Israeli control of the Philadelpi Corridor along the border with Egypt, Hamas is now cordoned off from resupply or retreat - their only options being to die fighting, or go undercover to regroup later. So the phase of "Whack-a-mole" (targeted raids) is taking over, where the IDF pounds down reformed Hamas units in previously cleared areas, as they stick their heads back up. This could potentially require a long period of Israeli Military occupation and control of the Strip, potentially with a lot of house to house urban operations, unless new political governance is established in Gaza.

ISW goes on to assess:

"Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip have already shifted to this approach to target reconstituting Hamas units.

Hamas’ Rafah Brigade will likely survive with sufficient assets to reconstitute itself, given the time and space to reconstitute. Successful reconstitution requires a commander to disengage their force from combat. An Israeli war correspondent said that an unspecified number of Hamas fighters left the Rafah area when Israeli forces first entered Rafah.

This cadre of surviving Hamas fighters assigned to the Rafah Brigade could provide Hamas commanders in Rafah sufficient human capital to rebuild the Rafah Brigade over time absent sustained Israeli military pressure against the Rafah Brigade.

The IDF has discovered large numbers of Hamas fighters in previously uncleared areas during other operations (so it seems to be Hamas' mode of operating). Israeli forces found that three battalions—not the expected one battalion—had withdrawn into a previously uncleared area of Jabalia prior to early May, for example."

“Artillery number seems pretty low”

Because Artillery is far behind enemy lines, fewer meet the photo verification standard the Oryx uses. Tanks tend to be destroyed right around the line of contact, in view of Ukrainian cell phones.

The Telegraph (UK) reports:

Ukraine launches new high-powered sea drone to terrorise Russia’s Black Sea Fleet

"Ukraine has unveiled a new high-powered version of its naval sea drones that have been used to devastating effect against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

The new version, named Stalker 5.0, features a 60-horsepower speedboat engine and can carry explosive payloads of up to 150 kilograms.

Details of the unmanned vessel, which is five metres long and 1.2 metres wide, were first made public by Ukrainian officials at the Black Sea Security Forum.

It can travel at speeds of up to 40 knots (46mph) and has an operational range of around 372 miles – roughly enough to target the Kerch bridge between occupied Crimea and mainland Russia – officials said.

The drone is equipped with a Starlink satellite internet terminal that relays a live video feed back to its operator. In addition to an explosive kamikaze mode, the Stalker 5.0 can be used for reconnaissance and coastal patrols, and can also deliver food, water, military and medical supplies to hard-to-reach locations.

Its logistical mode could play a particularly important role in helping Ukrainian marines hold the Krynky bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro River that has become increasingly hard to resupply using conventional boats.

The fast-evolving maritime drones have become one of the main successes of the efforts by Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion.

A combination of different unmanned vessels used by Ukraine’s SBU security services and its HUR military intelligence agency have forced the Russian navy to flee the Black Sea and allowed Ukraine to reopen a grain shipping corridor vital for the country’s economic survival.

But an explosive attack by the SBU on the Kerch Bridge remains one of the standout attacks of the maritime campaign.

When the SBU smashed its SeaBaby model into the crossing, it temporarily severed a key military supply route between Crimea and mainland Russia.

Since that strike in July 2023, new iterations of the drones have seen versions fitted with mobile grad rocket launchers used to bombard Russian coastal targets.

And in response, Russia has continued to build unconventional defences around the Kerch bridge, including floating booms and layers of netting that it hopes will prevent future Ukrainian drone strikes."

"I wonder where the S-500 is located."

I think the Ukrainian G-2 said it was somewhere around Kerch.

Kyiv Independent reports:

“Several oil storage tanks in the town of Azov in Russia’s southwestern Rostov region caught fire overnight on June 18 following a drone strike, Vasily Golubev, the regional governor, said...

...The town of Azov, situated 16 kilometers (9.9 miles) from the Azov Sea, is home to 81,924 people. Rostov Oblast borders Ukraine to the southeast.

Reports of drone attacks against the region’s oil infrastructure have increased in spring 2024. On June 14, a drone attack in the city of Morozovsk in Russia’s Rostov Oblast caused a fire and disruptions to the local power supply.”

Crimean Air Defense degradation summary - Kyiv Independent reports:

“Ukrainian forces struck around 15 air defense systems in Russian-occupied Crimea over the past two months, Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications (Stratcom) reported on June 17.

The Ukrainian military recently hit several S-300, S-350, and S-400 air defense systems, according to the statement. Ukraine also struck more than 15 radar stations and over 10 control centers stationed in Russian-occupied peninsula.

The military sites were located in Crimean settlements – Chornomorske, Tarkhankut, Yevpatoria, Saky, Donske, Belbek, Sevastopol, Alushta, Dzankoi, Mysove, and near Ai-Petri peak, according to the map published by Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications...

...Air defense losses apparently made Moscow nervous enough to move the latest S-500 systems to the peninsula, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov said.”

Western leaders rejected Vladimir Putin’s call for surrender, while backing Ukraine’s right’s against Russian theft.