Free Republic

Good shooting. In one more way (specialty steels), Russia is totally dependent on China.

Kyiv Independent reports:

“A Ukrainian drone attack on July 1 seriously damaged the Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant in Belgorod Oblast, a military intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent on July 3...

...The plant is located in the area of the Stariy Oskol city, nearly 115 km (72 miles) from the Ukraine-Russia border. It is the only full-cycle metallurgical enterprise in Russia, according to the source.

The facility is vital for the Russian military-industrial complex, the source noted...

...The source described the scale of damage from the Ukrainian attack as “serious.”

Work at the plant was suspended after Ukrainian “kamikaze” drones hit two major power substations near the villages of Neznamovo and Volokonovskoye in Belgorod Oblast.

The Metallurgicheskaya substation near the Volokonovskoye village is one of the largest power substations in Europe, the source said.

The strikes resulted in a complete blackout at the plant, shutting down all electric arc furnaces with frozen metal inside. The furnaces need to be completely cleaned and the arc elements to be replaced to restart. It could take several months, the source told the Kyiv Independent.

“Some of the plant’s employees believe that the furnaces will have to be replaced with new ones. Considering that the plant was built by German specialists using German technology, it will likely be difficult to restart the plant’s operations without their participation,” the source added.

The facility produces high-quality steel, including alloyed specialty steels (SBQ), for the automotive and mechanical engineering industries. It uses the blast-free direct reduction technology MIDREX and electric arc melting.

The plant’s products are used by GAZ, UAZ, and KamAZ, among other Russian military-industrial enterprises.

The Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant, as well as its owner, Metalloinvest company, were included in the sanctions lists of the U.S. and U.K. in April 2023 in light of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.”

Darth Putin, KGB, asks:

If Zelesnky is so corrupt, why can’t I just bribe him?

“This Zelensky Bugatti fake story was so poorly done.”

Darth Putin, KGB asks:

If Zelesnky is so corrupt, why can’t I just bribe him?

(Bottom Line Up Front: Nothing is getting better in Russia. They are continuing to print 20-25% more rubles every year. Dramatic inflation is already baked in, even if they stopped tomorrow, which they can’t.)

Russia struggles to control finances as Ukraine invasion spending soars (2 July 2024)

Kyiv Independent reports:

“As the war is the Kremlin’s number one priority, all tools at its disposal have been used: increased taxation, sovereign funds, domestic borrowing, and the printing of money.

So far, tax hikes (excluding the big ones on on the oil and gas industries) and money issuance have been relatively moderate...

...Two-and-a-half years in, this balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult...

...According to Russian political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin, Russia’s Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiulina is trying to maintain a sound monetary policy but the war requires increasing expenses.

“Nabiulina faces a task that can’t be fulfilled,” Oreshkin told the Kyiv Independent.

Budget
As a result of the full-scale invasion, Russia’s spending on national defense rose from 3.6 trillion rubles ($51 billion) in 2021 to 6.4 trillion rubles ($75 billion) in 2023 and is expected to rise to 10.8 trillion rubles ($120 billion), or 29.4% of the budget, in 2024.

NATO countries have set a goal to spend 2 percent of the country’s GDP on defense in 2024. Russia is spending 6 percent. (Note: NATO’s collective GDP is more than 25 times that of Russia)

In contrast, social spending is expected to amount to 7.7 trillion rubles ($87 billion), or 21.1% of the Russian budget in 2024.

Due to the soaring expenditures on the military, Russia has had problems balancing its budget.

Before the invasion, Russia’s federal budget had a surplus of 524 billion rubles ($7 billion), or 0.4% of GDP, in 2021.

However, Russia’s budget deficit totaled 3.295 trillion rubles ($47 billion), or 2.1% of GDP, in 2022, and 3.24 trillion ($38 billion), or 1.9% of GDP, in 2023. The budget deficit is expected to amount to 120.1 billion rubles ($1.38 billion), or 1.1% of GDP, in 2024.

Taxes

From 2001 until 2021, Russia prided itself on having a flat income tax rate of 13%, which was a significant incentive for businesses.

In 2021, the Russian government introduced a 15% rate for income exceeding 5 million rubles ($57,000)...

...In May 2024, Russia’s Finance Ministry announced plans to impose income tax rates ranging from 15% to 22% for income exceeding 2.4 million rubles ($28,000) starting in 2025.

Meanwhile, the corporate tax will rise from 20% to 25%, and reduced rates for some businesses will be canceled.

The mineral tax for iron production will rise, while the mineral tax for fertilizer production will be doubled.

“The increase in taxes is indeed linked to spending on the war,” Andrei Movchan, a Russian-born economist based in London, told the Kyiv Independent...

“It will trigger inflation because the production of consumer goods is falling, while the state-stimulated demand for them remains the same,” Movchan, the founder of investment company Movchan’s Group, said...

...the current tax hike is moderate, but it could be a “test before a more radical tax reform.”

“If taxes are increased now, there is a risk that it may happen again,” Oreshkin said. (Note: Other significant taxes have been reported to be in development/ nearing implementation, such as a tax on childlessness, and a special War tax)

Oil and gas
Historically, the Russian budget’s main source of revenue has been oil and gas...

...Following the full-scale invasion, the Russian government’s oil and gas revenues rose by 28% in 2022, according to Russian government data, as oil prices increased, while Western sanctions on the oil and gas industry were not in force during most of the year. According to Reuters, the Russian budget’s oil and gas revenues then fell by 24% to 8.822 trillion rubles ($103 billion) in 2023 amid lower prices and Western sanctions.

However, this year, Russia’s oil and gas revenues are increasing as the Kremlin re-oriented supplies to China and India, and prices are rising again.

The Russian government’s oil and gas revenue in June is set to rise by more than 50% year-on-year to $9.4 billion, according to Reuters. The Russian government expects oil and gas revenues to rise by 21% year-on-year to 10.7 trillion rubles ($120 billion) in 2024. (Note that these reported Russian Government oil revenues include the effects of major tax hikes on the oil industry, and the cessation of former large subsidies for refineries. Also, these revenues are reported in rubles, which have lost significant value in 2022-2024)...

...Other methods
Russia has also used its National Wealth Fund to balance the budget and finance military spending...

...The State Duma, the Russian parliament’s lower house, said in 2023 that 1.3 trillion rubles ($15 billion) from the National Wealth Fund would be used to balance the budget in 2024...

...”Russia finances spending through internal borrowing and sovereign funds,” he said. “It increases the velocity of money and leads to inflation but does not lead to an increase in the money supply.”...

Russia’s increasing domestic debt also reflects growing military expenditures.

The Russian government’s domestic debt rose from 16.5 trillion rubles ($220 billion) in early 2022... to 20.99 trillion rubles ($240 billion) in March 2024.

Printing money
Another way to finance the war is for the country’s Central Bank to print additional money.

Russia’s money supply rose by 13% in 2021, but the growth rate was much higher after the full-scale invasion began – 24.4% in 2022. In 2023, it grew slower but still more than in the pre-war period – by 19.4%.

(NOTE: 20% and 25% annual growth rates in money supply are very large, and quite inflationary. That is on top of the inflationary ruble expansion of the COVID years. During COVID the US had a very unusual one year (2020) of 25% and another year (2021) of 12% growth in money supply, that induced the inflation which we saw. In the 2 1/2 years since then (from Jan 2022 to now) US money supply has contracted more than 3%, while the ruble supply kept exploding even faster than dollar supply did during COVID.)

The increase in the money supply has fueled inflation... Consumer price inflation amounted to 8.39% in 2021, 11.94% in 2022, and 7.42% in 2023.

Russian economist Igor Lipsits believes that real inflation figures are higher than the official ones. Movchan shares the same belief... (Note: No doubt that the Russians are fueling an inflation powder keg, and that official figures are deliberate lies to manage some effects of that problem (PR). That many new rubles has to stoke high inflation)

Lipsits and Oreshkin said that Russia’s Central Bank resorts to printing money more and more because of the war, fueling inflation.

“Any country succumbs to the issuance of more money and (boosting) inflation during war,” Oreshkin said...

...Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia’s Central Bank... wants to minimize credit expansion and the issuance of new money but the needs of the war require a more lax monetary policy, according to Oreshkin.

He said that, as a result, Nabiullina could be dismissed.

“They might fire Nabiullina and appoint someone who’ll simply print (more) money,” he added.”

(Speculation, but getting rid of Nabiullina would likely indicate a financial crisis)

“Russia Ends Housing Mortgage Subsidy That Stoked a Property Boom”

That is going to let the air out of the artificially inflated GDP numbers over the next year, but they are much better off ending that distortion sooner, rather than later.

“Germany recently arrested Russians who were scouting US military bases for sabotage attacks”

Looks like Russia will have more bases to worry about. Maybe not in St. Petersburg, but you can see it from there.

Kyiv Independent reports:

“Finland’s parliament on July 1 unanimously (unanimously!) approved a defense pact with the U.S., that gives Washington, among other things, access to 15 bases on the territory of one of NATO’s newest members.

Spurred by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Finland entered NATO in April 2023, extending the NATO-Russian border by roughly 1,340 kilometers (830 miles).

The Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) was signed in December of last year but was still awaiting approval from Helsinki’s parliament.

As well as access to military bases, the DCA allows for the training and deployment of U.S. forces on Finnish soil, as well as the deployment of military hardware.

Finland insisted nuclear weapons would remain covered by domestic laws in the agreement, so the import and transit of them remains prohibited.

The U.S. has concluded similar DCA-style pacts with 11 other NATO countries, including Sweden, Norway and Denmark.”

Kyiv independent reports (1 July):

“Explosions were heard in Balaklava, a settlement in the city of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea after an air raid alert went off on July 1, the Telegram channel Crimean Wind reported.

Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian proxy leader in Sevastopol, claimed that air defenses were operating in the city.

Crimean Wind shared a photo reportedly taken by locals showing a tall column of smoke rising above Balaklava, presumably near the town’s thermal power plant.

Razvozhayev claimed that according to the preliminary data, four air targets were destroyed near Balaklava, “but the wreckage fell in the coastal zone.” Information on the scale of possible damages is being clarified, he added.

Explosions were also reported in the area of Cape Fiolent, independent media outlet Krym Realii reported.”

Kyiv Independent reports:

“A document obtained by the Washington Post (WP) suggests Russia dropped glide bombs on its own territory nearly 40 times in one year, most likely due to malfunctioning guidance systems, the outlet reported on July 1.

Believed to have been compiled by Belgorod city emergency department, the document records 38 incidents in the year from April 2023 to April 2024. (plus more that did not detonate, or fell outside the city limits)

Experts believe the accidental bombings are caused by defective munitions. Ruslan Leviev, a military expert with the Conflict Intelligence Group, in comments quoted by WP, said: “A certain percentage of Russian bombs is defective.”

“We think these accidental releases are caused by the unreliability of these kits”

Kyiv Independent discusses Russian Tank losses today (1 July 2024):

(Summary: Ukrainian MoD estimates of 8,000 Russian tank losses likely includes IFVs, as well as Main Battle Tanks. British Intelligence estimate for tank losses is close to Oryx, around 3,000.

Russia had 3,300 tanks on operational status at the start of the war (2022), and French OSINT estimated a maximum of 7,000 salvageable tanks in storage (others have estimated 6,000, or even less, out of as many as 20,000 hulls).

The UK RUSI estimates that Russia supplies the Front about 1,500 tanks per year, roughly 1,200 of them refurbished from storage. The quality of the Russian tanks on the battlefield is clearly degrading significantly, with most of the modern tanks already gone. Some estimates expect Russian tank supply to culminate in 2026, but at these rates, there is the potential for a few more years (2028-29) of declining quality, although I expect other problems to constrain that (like component shortages, personnel and finance issues, as well as sabotage and drone attacks).

From the Article:

“Russian losses in Ukraine recently passed another milestone, with the total number of “tanks” claimed destroyed by Kyiv passing the 8,000 mark.

As of July 1, the figure stands at 8,099, according to the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

At the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia was estimated to have around 3,300 operational tanks, suggesting that all those that initially drove into Ukraine and then some, have been taken out over the course of two-and-a-half years.

It’s impossible to know for certain exactly how many tanks Russia has lost during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, so any figures need to be treated as estimates.

Further complicating matters is what exactly Ukraine’s General Staff counts as a “tank,” with Ukraine’s official count being plausible, yet most likely misleading.

“The daily figures from Kyiv just say tanks but because it has a separate section for armored personnel vehicles, so it’s my interpretation that they group main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles,” Sascha Bruchmann, visiting research fellow for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told the Kyiv Independent.

Opinion: How many tanks does Russia have left?

How accurate are the Ukrainian figures?
According to Bruchmann, the Ukrainian figures likely combine both main battle tanks (MBTs) and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs).

Broadly speaking, the main battle tank is the classic tracked vehicle with a large, turret-mounted cannon. Modern Russian examples include the T-90 and its much-vaunted but yet-to-be-tested T-14 Armata.

An IFV is used to carry infantry into battle and provide direct-fire support and can resemble a tank, but usually with a smaller cannon. Modern Russian examples include the BMP-3.

While the Ukrainian figures do not appear to distinguish between the two, other sources do.

An assessment for British Defense Intelligence earlier this year said Russia had likely lost 2,600 tanks since the start of the full-scale invasion, and 4,900 IFVs, a total of 7,500.

Figures from the open-source investigative project Oryx put the number of tanks damaged or destroyed at 3,180.

As Oryx only publishes visually confirmed data taken from open sources, the real numbers of Russian losses are likely significantly higher.

“If you look at the British figures, they’re getting close to what Ukraine is saying, and then with the visual confirmations from OSINT trackers like Oryx, I think the 8,000 figure is realistic,” Bruchmann says.

“I think it’s reasonable to conclude the 8,000 figure includes around 3,000 MBTs.”

Even Russia’s most advanced and capable tanks have taken a hammering on the battlefield.

In January, a T-90M – which Russian President Vladimir Putin once described as “the best tank in the world” – was destroyed by two U.S.-supplied Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, in service since the early 1980s.

How many tanks does Russia have left?
At the beginning of its full-scale invasion, Russia had around 3,330 operational tanks, according to the Military Balance 2021 database.

The database included all tank types then employed by Russia’s military, notably T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s, and their modifications.

Clearly, the most recent figures of Russian tanks destroyed would mean almost the entire tank fleet employed by the Kremlin at the start of the full-scale invasion had been destroyed.

But Russia had thousands of tanks in storage which it has been forced to use as the war dragged on far beyond what the Kremlin initially envisaged.

A September 2023 report by the Institut Action Résilience using OSINT data calculated Russia has an estimated maximum of 7,000 tanks in storage.

Can Russia replace lost tanks?
Russia does have the capacity to replace the tanks it had lost since February 2022, though there’s a massive caveat.

While Russia can maintain the quantity of tanks at the front, the quality is diminishing all the time, experts say.

Retired military officer and defense expert Viktor Kevliuk told the Kyiv Independent, “figure (of destroyed tanks) means that the enemy has lost almost all of the modern tanks that it had at the beginning of the invasion.”

“The capabilities of Russian industry to produce modern tanks are extremely limited, with 100-200 tanks per year,” he adds.

“The bulk of the tanks supplied to the front are restored machines from the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s.”

“The number (of lost tanks) is significant,” Bruchmann told the Kyiv Independent.

“Your tanks are still the spearhead of your armored forces and if you run out of tanks, you lose a lot of combat power and mobility.”

“If you run out of tanks, someone else has to bring that firepower onto the battlefield; someone has to pick up that slack,” Bruchmann adds.

Bruchmann points to Ukraine’s Kharkiv counteroffensive in 2022 as an example of what tanks can achieve.

Kyiv’s forces swept through Russian defenses, liberating 12,000 square kilometers of territory in under a month.

“That was a fist-full of tanks that caused that entire unraveling,” Bruchmann says. “Without tanks, you don’t have this same offensive capability and you need to adapt for that.”

Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) writes that Russia is “delivering approximately 1,500 tanks to its forces per year” but adds that “approximately 80% are not new production but are instead refurbished and modernized from Russian war stocks.”

“A T-64, even if it’s modernized, does not do the same thing as a T-90,” Bruchmann says, adding that the “trajectory” of Russian losses means the situation for the Kremlin will only get worse as Ukraine destroys more and more newer tanks.

What does it mean for the war in Ukraine?
There is much debate over whether or not Russia is running out of tanks and what this means for the war in Ukraine, with some estimates suggesting that by 2026, the Kremlin won’t have the means to replenish front-line positions.

But Bruchmann warns against thinking simply in terms of a trajectory of every decreasing numbers.

“War is dynamic, so just putting a current number in a trajectory won’t give us the right story,” he says.

“It’s tough to then write ‘yeah, in two years Russia will lose the war because they ran out of tanks,’ because that’s not how it’s going to happen.”

Tanks are at their most useful in an offensive capacity, and as Ukraine demonstrated last year, its Western allies have yet to give Kyiv enough to launch a successful counteroffensive against entrenched Russian forces.

Although Russia is currently on the offensive, its advances are grindingly slow and will only get slower as the number of tanks it has available decreases.

All of this plays into an increasingly attritional war, which, unable to liberate more land, does not bode well for Ukraine.

“It will inhibit Russia’s ability to take more territory or make it more costly,” Bruchmann says.

“But if the Russians have proved anything, it’s that they’re willing to take costs.”

“Take away or severely reduce the ability of Russia to launch glide bombs would have serious consequences to Russian MOD plans” (with more PATRIOTs)

President Zelensky reports that Russia used over 800 glide bombs, in just the last week.

Glide bombs are currently one of Russia’s most effective means of attack, that sorely requires an effective counter.

“Explosions in Schelkino, Crimea”

Looks like a great place to position Air Defense and/or Sea monitoring sensors (for the Sea of Azov). Close to Kerch, along the Azov Coast.

Classified?

PATRIOT missile production capacity increasing in the USA - funding provided and contract awarded.

Let’s see if Europe will step up as well. This Summer, likely next month’s NATO summit, is when the West needs to decide to sink the required investment in our collective Defense Industrial Base, to overwhelm Russia’s Defense productive capacity buildup over the next few years (especially next year), to defeat Russian aggression in Ukraine, and re-establish effective deterrence.

Kyiv Independent reports:

“The U.S. Army has signed a $4.5 billion contract with Lockheed Martin on June 28 to produce 870 Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE) missiles, according to the U.S. Army’s website.

The news comes after the U.S. announced in late June that it will prioritize deliveries of air defense missiles to Ukraine over orders from other countries, particularly Patriot and NASAMS missiles...

...”This multiyear contract award for the PAC-3 MSE missile follows through on the army’s commitment to stabilize and expand our production capability for this critical weapon system” ...said Douglas Bush, the army’s assistant secretary for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology.

The PAC-3 MSE missiles are in “high demand,” as they use “hit-to-kill” technology. This technology is more effective than blast-fragmentation, the U.S. Army said.

The PAC-3 MSE missiles can intercept tactical ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missiles, as well as aircraft. The missiles’ range of interception of air targets is 120 km (nearly 74.5 miles), and ballistic targets – 60 km (nearly 37 miles)...

...Romania announced on June 20 that it would transfer a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine. Germany has also delivered two of its systems, and the third one is on its way.”

“Perhaps the load crew forgot”...

Forgetting is one of vodka’s most effective aspects.

“Russia’s offensive has left a factory town where street battles continue rage in ruins” (Vovchansk)

This is the Russian way of war - level the place, and then herd expendables through to clear the area.

With the front lines moving so slowly, a significant percentage of the area where this extended fighting takes place may not be worth rebuilding for many years afterward, if ever.

Hopefully, justice will be served for the horrors that Putin has inflicted on so many.

Looks like this is basically what we have to look forward to through this Summer, and likely this Winter, before Russian stockpiles and finances culminate next year, and start choking off Russian Conventional combat power. Even after the Russians are past peak, they can likely continue destroying things and killing people for some time (possibly years), at diminishing rates of efficiency and effectiveness - as long as Putin keeps insisting on his blood sacrifices.

…And Czechia makes 20.

Kyiv Independent reports:

“Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced on X that the country will sign a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine during the European Political Community summit in London on July 18.

Fiala said on June 28 that he had reached on agreement with President Volodymyr Zelensky the previous day to “conclude negotiations on the text of the Czech-Ukrainian security agreement before the (9-11 July) NATO summit in Washington.”…

…Czechia joins 19 other countries, including the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and France, as well as the European Union, that have signed similar bilateral treaties to help Kyiv repel Russia’s aggression. The agreements are based on a pledge made by the Group of Seven (G7) last July.

Under this plan, individual countries would provide bilateral support to help Kyiv repel the ongoing Russian invasion and deter any future aggression.

The security guarantees would entail explicit and long-lasting obligations, as well as bolster Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression. The guarantees would also cover sanctions, financial aid, and post-war reconstruction…

…The newly-elected U.K. Prime Minister will host 50 leaders from across Europe during the European Political Community summit (18 July) which will primarily focus on supporting Ukraine against ongoing Russian aggression.”

Kyiv Independent reports:

“Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed on June 27 that Tver Oblast came under drone attack overnight, hours after Russian Telegram channels claimed a major chemical research plant in the region had been targeted.

Images and videos shared by local residents on Russian Telegram channels appeared to show a large explosion, purportedly in the area of the Redkinsky Experimental Plant.

The Redkinsky plant is located around 100 kilometers (62 miles) northwest of Moscow, and over 500 kilometers (315 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

The Redkinsky plant is an experimental facility that produces chemicals primarily for the aviation and space industries, such as chemicals that make up fuel.

According to its website, the plant is “one of the largest chemical production facilities in Tver Oblast,” with 700 employees, and “has an advantageous geographical location close to the railway and Moscow-St. Petersburg highway.”

“The plant has been focused on conducting experimental work in the field of chemical industry since the early 1950s,” the plant website says...

...The situation in Konakovsky district is “under control,” (Tver Oblast Governor Igor) Rudenya claimed, adding that there were no casualties and emergency services were at the scene.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that the attack was thwarted, and four drones were downed over Tver Oblast, two were downed over Moscow Oblast, and one drone was downed over Belgorod Oblast.”

Trump seemed confident last night, that he would have strong leverage over Putin, to impose a deal if elected. Russia’s Strategic position seems precarious, as their Military resources dwindle, and the West is formally solidifying behind Ukraine, for a ten year commitment. Russia needs a way out of Putin’s deepening mess.

Radio Free Europe reports:

EU Pledges Continued Support for Ukraine with New Security Agreement

“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on June 27 signed security agreements with the European Union, Estonia, and Lithuania (the 18th and 19th Nations to do so, including all members of the G-7) at the start of a two-day EU summit in Brussels.

The security deal with the European Union reinforces the bloc’s support for Kyiv in nine areas of security and defense policy.

A draft of the agreement obtained by RFE/RL reiterates the “resolute condemnation of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine” and reaffirms the EU’s “unwavering support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity,” Kyiv’s right to self-defense against the Russian aggression, and its pursuit of a just peace.

The draft says that the EU supports Ukraine’s reforms and EU accession path, noting that overall EU assistance to Ukraine amounts to almost 100 billion euros ($107 billion), including 35 billion euros in military support.

“The European Union is determined to continue providing Ukraine and its people all the necessary political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military, and diplomatic support for as long as it takes and as intensely as needed,” the document says.

The draft stresses that “Russia must not prevail” in its full-scale war launched in February 2022 and says Ukraine must get back territory annexed by Moscow. It also lists commitments to providing military equipment, military training, and cooperation between the European and the Ukrainian defense industries.

The agreements Zelenskiy signed with Lithuania and Estonia while at the EU summit are intended to complement other similar agreements sealed between Ukraine and its allies. They are not mutual defense pacts but do amount to pledges to provide Ukraine with weapons and other aid and deter any future invasion.”

“Is the characterization in this story true?”

Looking at Biden’s face, it was almost impossible to miss the dementia. He would stare blankly, leave his mouth agape, etc. He often stumbled verbally and corrected himself (trillions, no billions), and seemed to lose track, even though he seemed to me to have been prepared ahead of time for every question in order, with a screen or notes to look down at, and an earpiece where he was clearly being coached.

It is hard for anyone who watched to feel that Biden will be sharp tomorrow, much less for the next for years. He was clearly past his sell by date.

State Representative Ham Sandwich

Ham would enter the race with already high approval ratings among most key constituencies, except for observant Jews and Muslims.