We Are Running for Congress -- Maybe

This here's the 366th Report ta the Folks Back Home from the (More er Less) Honorable Billybob, cyberCongressman from Western Carolina.

For reasons that will shortly become quite clear, I'm not gonna turn this over ta ma able assistant, J. Armor, Esq. Instead, fer the firs time ever in seven years of rattin, this column has a shared byline tween yer Congresscritter n his assistant.

Ballot issues always begin with a summary, to assist the voters. Here's my summary: My District needs more jobs and better schools. That means applying both book learning and common sense to what the federal government does, and doesn't do, in this District. I think my background qualifies me to be an effective Congressman. Today I announce an Exploratory Committee to find out what the good folks in Western Carolina think about that.

Mark Twain once wrote, "No one but royalty, an editor, or a man with a tapeworm has the right to use the word ‘we.' " His point was that people using the word "we" instead of "I" makes them seem pompous. Politicians seem particularly addicted to that affectation.

Well, we are running for Congress, maybe. First we explain the "we" and then the "maybe."

More than seven years ago, the (More er Less) Honorable Billybob, cyberCongressman from Western Carolina, sprang into existence in a weekly column then on AOL, under the title "Cong. Billybob Sez:"

Being a "cyberCongressman" (a word created by his "able assistant, J. Armor, Esq."), Ol' Billybob just declared himself elected and later reelected on the Internet. No fund-raising. No baby-kissing. No dreadful TV ads.

Though the approach was sometimes humorous, the intent was always serious. Every word written about political and other issues was intended to communicate legitimate analysis to knowledgeable readers. Now the time has come for someone actually to run for Congress. That cannot be Billybob, so it must be his assistant and alter ego, John Armor.

The first question that should be answered by any candidate for any office is, "Why are you running?" Some readers remember that famous Roger Mudd interview of Senator Ted Kennedy; Ted was running against President Carter, trying to take his renomination away. Mudd asked that critical question, and Kennedy hemmed and hawed in response. What little he said boiled down to this: "the nation owes me the Presidency." After that interview, Kennedy's campaign against President Carter crashed and burned.

So why are Congressman Billybob and John Armor running as a team for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina (maybe)? President Teddy Roosevelt answered that question better than anyone else. We agree with what he said. His address, "Citizenship in a Republic," included this well-known passage:

"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again,... but who does actually strive to do the deeds;... and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat."

This was a brilliant speech, delivered to the faculty of the Sorbonne, drawing the distinction between academics and critics and those who actually accomplish tasks. Here's a link: http://www.theodore-roosevelt.com/trsorbonnespeech.html

For forty years I've worked with and for presidential candidates, Senators, Representatives, and hundreds of members of state legislatures. As a lawyer and as a political analyst, I've been deeply involved in other people's campaigns and other people's issues. It's been hard, challenging, and worthwhile work. I was honored to have those opportunities, and don't regret a moment of that (low-paid or volunteer) work.

Now it's time to see if the voters agree with my conclusion that I have the skills and background to be a competent Member of Congress, on my own two feet and my own merits. So why do I say I'm running but add the word "maybe"?

One of my books, Why Term Limits?, 1994, recounts the history of House elections from 1790 to 1992. A 2002 article for Contingencies, the journal of the American Academy of Actuaries, brought that research up to date. The article, "Til Death Do Us Part," also contained accurate predictions of the results in the coming House and Senate elections.

To make a very long story very short, there are certain prerequisites for any challenger to be successful in running for Congress. They are: strong personal qualifications, a capable staff, more than 1,000 able volunteers in the District, and $617,000.

Whoa, I hear you cry. That's an awfully specific number. Where'd that come from?

Starting in 1975, all federal candidates had to declare through the Federal Election Commission their total fund-raising and also give certain details on all donations of $200 and up. The average spending for winning candidates for the House in 1976 was $97,700. That number has risen steadily over the years, so the average for winners was more than $900,000 in 2002. But there is a second set of numbers to track – how much money must a challenger raise to have a real chance of defeating an incumbent?

This number also tracks upwards over the decades. It projects to $617,000 in 2004. And this is a workable number in a highly rural District like N.C. 11, with only two TV stations and one daily newspaper, and therefore very low advertising costs compared to most House Districts.

Notice that so far I've said nothing about the interests of the District, or the possible opposing candidates. That is deliberate. Every year there are hundreds of "show the flag" candidates who file to run, raise less than $50,000, and hope that lightning will strike and they will win. Often, such candidates get the nominations of their party against an entrenched incumbent of the other party. And then those hopeless candidates get stomped into the mud in the general election – unless lightning DOES strike and the incumbent gets caught in a nasty scandal or gets convicted of a serious crime.

I refuse to engage in a hopeless campaign. I've already met the first two prerequisites – my own background, and lining up a capable staff. But I shouldn't run, and won't, unless I meet the other two requirements – finding enough volunteers and raising enough money for a competent campaign. I won't make that final decision until January, 2004, just before the N.C. filing deadline of 27 February. (The primary election is now set for 4 May; however, the N.C. Supreme Court has just declared the election law here unconstitutional. If the law remains tied up in court, the primary may be delayed until September, as it was in the last election for state offices.)

The 11th District is Western Carolina, the triangle at the end of the state from Asheville west to Tennessee and Kentucky. The primary industries here are tourism and agriculture. Tourism centers on the Great Smokies National Park. The agriculture is largely tobacco, though of necessity many farmers are moving into other forms of truck farming. The bleeding area of the economy is the loss of manufacturing jobs – a problem common to many parts of the United States. And the two groups who are more prominent here than in most Districts are the Cherokee and retired people.

The Eastern Band of the Cherokee are centered on Cherokee, N.C., on the edge of the Great Smokies. The tribe has done an excellent job of economic development on its own. But it still needs additional help to reach a good standard of living across the board. Retired people are settling in Western Carolina because the climate is excellent, the costs of living are low, and the people here are as friendly as the day is long.

Another factor is the nature of the businesses in Western Carolina. Six of the ten largest employers here are universities or hospitals. In short, there are very few "major" employers. Given the geography and challenges of transportation through the mountains, the heart of employment in Western Carolina is, and will probably remain, tens of thousands of small businesses, family farms, and the like. Small businesses are more susceptible to being shut down by dumb decisions and policies of government, because they lack the clout to defend themselves.

The last major factor is that public education is in a steady and ultimately disastrous decline in Western Carolina. This, too, is common across the country, but the folks of this District will probably be more willing to accept and undertake the kinds of changes like student testing, teacher testing, school choice and charter schools, that more enlightened communities across the nation are already adopting. Also, bureaucrats should help rather than hinder those parents who choose to home-school their children.

What aspects of my background match the needs of the 11th District? I grew up in the 1st District of Maryland, the Eastern Shore. The Eastern Shore is almost as flat as a pool table. It's located between the Atlantic Ocean and the Chesapeake Bay. At first glance, it would seem to have nothing in common with Western Carolina, far from blue water and squarely in the Blue Ridge Mountains (the southern end of the Appalachian chain). Yet appearances can be deceiving.

The Eastern Shore's two main industries are tourism and truck farming. It faces a major challenge to attract and keep manufacturing jobs. And its long term success depends on improving public education. So, whether I knew it or not, I was preparing for this race in this District from my first experiences with the people and economy in Salisbury, Maryland.

What are the background and experiences that I bring to bear for Western Carolina? First of all, I'm "over-educated." I graduated from Yale, from the University of Maryland Law School, and have completed the course work but not the dissertation for a Ph.D. in Public Policy from American University. Along the way, I've met more than a few people who hold a Ph.D., but are dumb as a hoe handle in the real world. Do I share that disability?

One side of my employment history answers that question. My first real job was working on an assembly line at the Washington Aluminum Company's Westport Plant. I've done door-to-door sales, been a short-order cook, and run a retail business. (That retail business failed, by the way, which taught me two lessons. The first is, "These are the problems that a small businessman faces." The other lesson is, "Don't do that again.")

I've accomplished some fairly difficult tasks. I've published six books (so far). I've published more than 500 articles (so far). And I've filed 17 briefs in the US Supreme Court, with a good track record in victories. I must give up filing Supreme Court briefs after becoming an official candidate for Congress. The reason has to do with the Constitution, and the separation of powers between the branches of government. While there is no legal barrier to a Member of Congress filing a brief in the Court, I don't consider that appropriate and would not do it .

Bottom line, I believe I offer the necessary combination of skills in public policy and law, combined with having my feet on the ground in a common-sense way. The voters in Western Carolina will, of course, decide that issue. Much more information about my District and about me than can be presented in a mere column, appears on my campaign (maybe) website. All readers of this are welcome to click over to that website and see what it offers: http://www.ArmorforCongress.com

Lastly, many readers who've known me for some time will want to help my effort. Here are three steps I'd appreciate your taking:

A. If you live in Western Carolina, sign up as a volunteer. I have a short list of very important actions I'd like you to take, depending on your available time and skills.

B. If you don't live in Western Carolina, but have relatives, friends or colleagues who live here, contact them, give them a link to this column, and suggest that they consider getting involved in this effort. And let me know who they are and where they are, so I can follow up with them.

C. Whether or not you live in Western Carolina, if you believe I will make a capable Member of Congress, send me a contribution. All contributions are welcome, and I expect the average donation for about three-fourths of my supporters to be about $35. It all adds up.

My campaign website shows the e-mail and snail mail addresses to use, along with much other information. When the volunteers and the dollars in hand add up to the practical targets I have set, then I can write another column taking away the word "maybe" from the title. Both of us – Congressman Billybob and John Armor – thank you for your support.

28018, 28019, 28024, 28040, 28043*, 28074, 28139*, 28160, 28167, 28701, 28702, 28704, 28707, 28708, 28709, 28710, 28711, 28712, 28713, 28714*, 28715, 28716, 28717, 28718, 28719, 28720, 28721, 28722, 28723, 28725, 28726, 28727, 28728, 28729, 28730, 28731, 28732, 28733, 28735, 28736, 28737, 28738, 28740*, 28741, 28742, 28743, 28745, 28746, 28747, 28748, 28749, 28750, 28751, 28752*, 28753, 28754, 28755, 28756, 28757, 28758, 28760, 28761*, 28762, 28763, 28766, 28768, 28770, 28771, 28772, 28773, 28774, 28775, 28776, 28778, 28779, 28781, 28783, 28784, 28786, 28787, 28788, 28790, ALL 288 zip codes, 28901, 28902, 28904, 28905, 28906, 28909. * These are only partly in the 11th District. [This list probably contains some inaccuracies, since I have two sources for it and they do not agree.]

Yours is the most detailed post on the thread so far, and warrants the most detailed response.

First you ask about education. I am not for "more government schools." To the contrary, as my website makes clear, and my posts on FR over the years say the same, I favor competitve alternatives to "government schools." I support charter schools, vouchers, home-schooling, etc.

As for federal involvement in education, I remember when President Carter promised to create the Dept. of Education, and did so, stocking it with "edukashun" union types. I smelled trouble then, and it has gotten only marginally better under Republican Presidents. It is way too late to argue that the federal government cannot get invovled in education. All that can be accomplished now is to limit the feds to relatively honest roles such as providing scholarships, and encouraging standard testing to find out how well the schools are doing, and how prepared the teachers are.

Charlie is a timber farmer, and has done a good job of fighting for the industry that he knows best. I know the Endangered Species Act is a menace to many productive industries in many states -- that it is a sword in the hands of environmental lawyers to chop away ordinary citizens' abilities to earn a living. It is a national problem -- part of the general menace of lawyers to American well-being, and THAT subject I've known for decades. For instance, I knew from my friend, Senator Craig of Idaho, when the reintroduction of grey wolves in the West was first proposed. He was absolutely right that farmers and ranchers would be left holding the bag on that. Larry and people like him are natural allies for Western Carolina in restraining the bad effects of that law, if it cannot be repealed altogether. The easiest way to restrain that law is to compel, not ask, the bureaucrats and the courts to consider in the equation the costs to real live humans, as well as to the snail darter, spotted owl, etc., before they enter any judgment or make any decision.

Yes, I know that issue has impacted Western Carolina. The best way to win any issue in Congress is to gather together your natural allies, rather than fight the issue alone on one point only.

On the liberal - conservative spectrum, I am about as conservative as Charlie Taylor. I've laid out my views on hundreds of issues on FreeRepublic over the last five years. My views are not a secret. And they are also well in view on my website -- which contains much more information than all but a handful of websites of all present incumbents in Congress.

I am under no delusions about the political split in the District between Asheville and Cherokee, and the rest of the District. I am not going to change any of my views to pander to any given group of citizens. My views are well-known and in print. But I do expect to peel away some Democrat votes -- some who are simply conservative, like most of the Democrats in various state legislatures I've worked with and for over the last 25 years. And some of the liberal Democrats can be peeled away because they have come to realize that education is an overwhelming issue -- and the unions and national Democrats are on the wrong side of that particular issue.

In the interest of keeping my website manageable rather than becoming a phone book, I cut out dozens of paragraphs on the site that described the contents of my books. All but the last book, to Restore Trust in America, can be found and are described on Amazon and other book sale sites. Restore Trust has its own website, which is www.RestoreTrustinAmerica.com The information on all my books is readily available to anyone who wants it.

As for my Supreme Court cases, I have discussed almost all of them on FreeRepublic over the years. I've written 44 articles (about 500 pages) on Supreme Court cases, here: www.civilrightsunion.org I am honored that two of the people I write for through that organization, the American Civil Rights Union, are Robert Bork and Edwin Meese.

My most recent Supreme Court briefs were in the first Bush case from Florida in 2000, and the McConnell case (campaign finance reform), to be argued in the Supreme Court on 8 September. Both those briefs of mine, written for the American Civil Rights Union, are posted on the website of the US Supreme Court here: www.supremecourtus.gov

Not only was my Bush brief on the winning side, it was the only one to urge the Court to do what it unanimously did in the first Florida case, to "strike" the Florida Supreme Court's decision from the record and "do nothing else." As for my brief against the McCain-Feingold Act, I have stated on FreeRepublic, repeatedly, I am so certain we will beat this law in the Supreme Court that I "will resign my 30-year membership in the Court's Bar" if we fail to defeat that law.

Again, all the information on my positions -- in the constitutional area -- is available on line in public from years, or even decades ago. You are welcome to see as much of it as you care to read (or, in reading legal opinions, it is a matter of how much normal people can tolerate).

Lastly, just before I sat down to reply to your wide-ranging request for information, I heard from my webmaster. Almost a month ago, I set this afternoon on FR as the place and time I'd make my first announcement. I won't trouble you with the Internet difficulties we've had to get that website up and running, all 70+ pages of it. The thing is a small book -- but almost all of it is functional now. The rest will be electronically happy by tomorrow.

I do not want you, or anyone else, to buy into my effort as a pig in a poke. Take your time over a week or more to examine the details I've put on my website. Anything more you need than that, just ask me. The average voter may have a low tolerance for a large volume of detail, but I expect people on FreeRepublic to demand facts, figures, details, history -- and not be satisfied until all that is provided.

I've written a fair-sized article just to reply to your inquiries. I figure others have the same questions but haven't taken the time to ask. Pursue the links. Gather the information. Ask me for more information any time on any subject. Only when you're satisfied that I have my head screwed on straight and have worked long and hard on issues that matter to the people in Western Carolina, then and only then I'd like to have your support.

John / Billybob

I am in the process right now of lining up more speaking engagements in all parts of the District. However, let me make it more convenient for you than just waiting to see when I'll be near your home.

Contact some friends of yours. Pick someone's house that can accomodate 40 people, give or take. Invite the folks over for hotdogs, hamburgers and sodas (the campaign will cover the cost, though folks should be prepared to chip in for the food). Whether they also support my campaign is an open question to be answered at the end of the meeting.

Let me know when and where to come, and I'll be there, and talk about whatever the folks on hand want to cover. This offer is not just to you, but to anyone in the District. As my website says, I will go to any civic meeting, anywhere in the District, to speak about whatever subjects they choose. I will ALSO go to any home meeting, for the same purpose.

To make efficient use the limited number of days between now and November a year from now, I seek to go to meetings -- civic or home -- with at least 40 people present. I'll state my goal right here, in front of everybody. I want to speak in person, with at least 10,000 people in the 11th District, with every one of them having the opportunity to ask whatever question they want, and to have my answer in plain English and on the spot.

Very few candidates for Congress -- incumbents or challengers -- have ever set a goal like that for their campaigns. But I have. And I'm willing to live or die by the results.

Billybob

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