Another pollster says Senate race still too close to call

The Daily Advertiser ^ | 11/28 | John Hill

[Jack Bauer]

BATON ROUGE -- The boisterous U.S. Senate campaigns fall quiet today while the nation pauses for Thanksgiving, but it won't be completely without an event.

U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu was scheduled to serve for a photo op during Orleans Sheriff Charles Foti's Thanksgiving dinner but planned to remain with family in New Orleans. Blocks away in the Uptown section of New Orleans, Republican Suzanne Haik Terrell planned to cook for Thanksgiving with her family.

In the meantime, former President Bill Clinton flew to London to spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student, and will not come to New Orleans for Saturday's Bayou Classic football game, said U.S. Sen. John Breaux.

In another development, a third pollster said Louisiana's U.S. Senate race remains a showdown, too close to call.

New Orleans pollster Ed Renwick, who questioned

600 voters Nov. 20-23 of this past week for WWL-TV in New Orleans, called it "a very tight race."

When factored to reflect racial demographics of registered voters, Renwick found

45 percent favoring Landrieu, 31 percent for Terrell, 3 percent for neither, 14 percent saying they don't know and 8 percent refusing to say, even though they had a choice.

But when Renwick adjusted it to show blacks as 25 percent of those who actually vote -- a historically reliable percentage -- his poll showed Terrell ahead at 51 percent.

That reflects similar findings released Tuesday by Verne Kennedy of Marketing Research Institute in Pensacola, Fla., who put it at 46 percent for Terrell and 42 percent for Landrieu on the assumption that black voters would comprise 23 percent of those who vote Dec. 7.

"It is kind of the worst-case scenario for Landrieu," Renwick said. "We have an extremely close election. The turnout differential of only a few points of either race could change the outcome."

"All kinds of things could happen," Renwick said. "We don't have the president in there. I think that will give Suzie a little bump. I don't know whether it will last through the election."

Renwick did detect higher interest in the runoff than in the primary election among those polled. "I wouldn't be surprised if you didn't see 60 percent of the voters turnout," he said.

Breaux, one of those voters interested in Landrieu's re-election, also said his sense of the race is that it is very close. He conceded that black turnout is the major factor in the election's outcome.

"It is a Saturday election," he said. "That is better for our side."

[I_Love_My_Husband]

Bump and a prayer for Terrell to win.

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

In the meantime, former President Bill Clinton flew to London to spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student, and will not come to New Orleans for Saturday's Bayou Classic football game, said U.S. Sen. John Breaux.

According to the Washington Prowler, Landrieu actually commissioned a poll to determine if the positives of x42 campaigning for her in the black community outweighed the negatives he would have on her among white voters. I think we can take an educated guess what that poll said.

[PAR35]

Bad news:

Forecast for New Orleans on Dec. 7 (Weather Channel 10 day forecast) Partly cloudy, no chance of rain, high 63 low 47.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

45 percent favoring Landrieu, 31 percent for Terrell, 3 percent for neither, 14 percent saying they don't know and 8 percent refusing to say, even though they had a choice.

But when Renwick adjusted it to show blacks as 25 percent of those who actually vote -- a historically reliable percentage -- his poll showed Terrell ahead at 51 percent.

This is very ambiguous. He reports Landrieu leading 45/31 - a huge gap of 14 points. But if adjusted to assume blacks making up 25% of the electorate, he says that Terrell is ahead at 51%.

But is that 51% a prediction of what she would actually get on election day? In other words, does it make assumptions as to how the 22% of voters who failed to express a preference would vote?

If so, Terrell's edge is slight. But if it's 51% with 22% undecided, then Terrell in fact would have a huge lead.

I actually went to the original article on the WWLTV web page, and things are not really clarified. Here is what it has to say:

"Renwick says that it is important for Landrieu to get out the black vote.

“If the black vote was somewhat below the white vote percentage wise, in other words if instead of 29 percent it (the black percentage of votes) was 25 percent, then Suzie Terrell would win with between 51 and 52 percent, so turnout is very critical,” emphasized Renwick."

My best guess is that the pollster is predicting that if blacks make up 25% of the electorate, Terrell will get 51% on Election Day.

Of course, Pres. Bush has not made his scheduled visit, and that could very easily be good for another few percentage points!

[governsleastgovernsbest]

In the meantime, former President Bill Clinton flew to London to spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student

Please vote in our instant FR poll.

I believe Bill Clinton's primary goal in flying to London is:

A. To spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student.
B. To spend time with a willing bimbo he met on a previous visit to Chelsea.

[RJayneJ]

We sure could use the extra cushion to keep Chafee and McCain in check.

[Sonny M]

I saw the 51% to 34% poll, that did not make me happy, then I saw the 75% Bush approval/like the guy poll, that made me happy. All thats needed here, is Bush and Cheney to make a few stops between now and election day down in Louisiana along with Trent Lott talking about needing access to the white house for at least one senator from Louisiana. Then Terrel will win easy. I don't think she's gonna lose this one, unless the RNC really just doesn't care.

[Behind Liberal Lines]

In the meantime, former President Bill Clinton flew to London to spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student, and will not come to New Orleans for Saturday's Bayou Classic football game, said U.S. Sen. John Breaux.

HAH!

In other words, the 'rats have realized that having Slick Willie on their side hurts, not helps, them.

The Hildbeast must be steaming. Her presidential chances are going down the drain.

[CedarDave]

Renwick says that it is important for Landrieu to get out the black vote. If the black vote was somewhat below the white vote percentage wise, in other words if instead of 29 percent it (the black percentage of votes) was 25 percent, then Suzie Terrell would win with between 51 and 52 percent, so turnout is very critical,” emphasized Renwick.

This race is tailor made for RAT vote fraud.

[No dems 2002]

Amen.

[No dems 2002]

This race is winnable by the good guys.

Let's get President Bush down there and do what he did for Chambliss and others.

[chemicalman]

Wow! What a day December 7th is going to be. Pearl Harbour day, Run-off election, my lil girls birthday (3 y/o)...I hope it turns out perfect when Terrell kicks Brown Roots butt.

[Future Useless Eater]

Blonde-haired squinty-eyed [chubby-cheeks] Landrieu is not one for blacks to relate to. [Mary's campaign still uses her 1996 photos frequently because she has aged so badly]

Blacks not solidly behind Democrat candidate
If a few black leaders have anything to say about it, U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu will not get the full support of the black turnout...

Many Louisianan voters can remember that in the 1996 election in which Landrieu was eventually declared the winner, the election was very close and had TONS of allegations of voter fraud. Louisianans are tired of the boss-Hog political curruption that was rife when Mary got elected. Poll watchers should be aware of this possibly happening again.

By contrast, Louisiana knows that Suzie Terrell will give Louisana a much stronger voice in the new Republican-led Senate.

---

Louisianans are also very well aware that we have massive TERRORISM occurring around the world, and in our country, and in particular, in Louisiana, and Republicans are our best defense against the 'Blame-American-First' crowd.

• There seems to be solid terrorist connections in Louisiana and Baton Rouge, and Muhammad kept returning to B.R. before every major event
• Baton Rouge had a link to an anthrax suspect from Maryland.
• Baton Rouge is home to one Taliban soldier, Yaser Hamdi, we caught in Afghanistan this spring.
• Within one week of this Taliban capture, Baton Rouge became the home of this year's first USA human outbreak of west-nile-virus (months before the rest of the country).
• FBI has let it slip that Baton Rouge's John Muhammad is positively linked to an Al-Fuqra terror-cell in Georgia.
• Muhammad was in Baton Rouge just before visiting Antigua in August 2002 to furniture shop, and set up the $10 Million ransom Electronic Funds Transfer with banking accomplices (my bet is on John Ferris, the investment banker and treasurer in Antigua)
• Muhammad returned to Baton Rouge to pick up his rifle and ammunition
• Muhammad was in Baton Rouge just before starting to car-shop (in Tacoma)
• Muhammad returned to Baton Rouge with the new Caprice sniper car (to show it off? to make plans?)
• October 3rd, between killings #5 and #6, Muhammad telephoned someone at a cell-phone in Baton Rouge [an accomplice]
• FBI visited Baton Rouge in November to tear up his old stomping grounds and confiscate more tree stumps

.
Louisiana was home to the West Nile Virus attack on HUMANS in the spring, months before the rest of the country!

By August 8th, the human outbreaks were STILL limited to the Louisiana area and neighboring states. Then it mushroomed due to migratory birds that had spread it in the spring from Louisiana, along the Mississippi and Ohio river migration paths throughout the midwest...

Suzie Turrell needs ALL LOUISIANA's support!
Contact her campaign to help out.

[altair]

Bump and a message to FReepers in Louisiana, get out the conservative voters. We need this seat.

[peekaboo]

Suzie will be here tomorrow, Friday. Bush is scheduled to be in Louisiana week of Dec. 2nd. Suzie ,goes to NY for a rally with Pataki, Rudy and Sen. Werner. Rudy will come to Louisiana this next week. Preisdent George Herbert Walker Bush will be in the state this next week also. I have reported on other threads that here in Alexandria, La. (central La.) the RNC has set up a headquarters for Suzie. This young republilcan group is energetic and very enthusiastic about working for Suzie. One of them was sent to Minnesota to work for Coleman and one worked directly under Ralph Reed to pull off the Georgia victories for Chambliss and the new governor. I will be poll watching in one of our precints on election day and will be spending the rest of the next week, working the phone bank and walking the neighborhoods. Moon Griffon the state wide talk radio host says not to pay attention to the polls, but get out the vote. The absentee voting here is higher than it has ever been. LSU will probably be going to Atlanta for a play off on Dec. 7th and hunting season starts that day, hope these are all republicans who are voting absentee.

[SuziQ]

In the meantime, former President Bill Clinton flew to London to spend time with his daughter Chelsea, an Oxford student

It is strange. I read about x42 going over to London to visit Chelsea all the time. I don't think I've EVER read that #97 has gone to see her. What's up with that?

[Alamo-Girl]

Bump!

[altair]

I will be poll watching in one of our precints on election day

Excellent. The more honest people watching, the better.

[winner3000]

Something tells me that Landrieu is not too happy that the date of the runoff is Pearl Harbor day (December 7th). During that rememberence, it will be more difficult pulling the lever against the President who is protecting us against the perpetrators of another sneak attack.