Posted on 09/18/2024 8:01:06 PM PDT by thegagline
Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, as more voters see Harris as the candidate who will help the middle class, and Hispanics and independents swing in her direction.
The new Fox News national survey finds a 3 percentage-point shift among registered voters in the 2024 presidential contest since mid-August. Trump had a 1-point advantage last month, while Harris is ahead by 2 points today: 50%-48%. For reference, in July, Trump was ahead by 1 point over President Biden. Each of those differences falls within the margin of error.
This marks the first time Harris has hit 50% support, and the trial ballot result is identical among both registered and likely voters. That’s unsurprising given most Americans who are willing to spend time answering a political survey are also probably going to vote.
***
The biggest change since last month is that independents and Hispanics have swung Harris’ way. Hispanics favored Trump by 6 points in August, but they go for Harris by 12 points today. Independents went for Trump by 8 points last month, but now prefer Harris by 12. It is important to remember that estimates among small subgroups are more volatile and tend to swing more than others, and that applies here.***
Harris’ strongest backing comes from Black voters, urban voters, those under age 30, voters 65 and over, college graduates and women. She’s narrowly ahead in union households, a group that Biden won by low double-digits. Her numbers also still trail his 2020 pre-election numbers a bit among Blacks and young voters. ***
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
More whacko polling from fox.
Trump is running at 70% and Harris at 30%.
All of the rest is smoke and mirror push polling.
“Harris’ strongest backing comes from Black voters, urban voters, those under age 30, voters 65 and over, college graduates and women. She’s narrowly ahead in union households, a group that Biden won by low double-digits. Her numbers also still trail his 2020 pre-election numbers a bit among Blacks and young voters”
None of that info matches up with other reports I have seen. Some unions are not endorsing because the rank and file is strongly Trump. Trump has more support among blacks and Hispanics and is carrying independents.
Just thinking this is like push polling.
thegagline: "Really? I just read the 19 pages of Fox poll results and methodology and it looks like 42% of those polled were Democrats and 43% were Republicans."
Fox does use a left-leaning pollster, estimated as skewing roughly 2% towards Harris, which means Fox is actually calling the popular vote "even" as of today.
More conservative pollsters still give Trump the edge:
Finally, whether a pollster is left-leaning or conservative, the electoral college math works out that Harris will need at least +3% in the popular vote to achieve an electoral college win.
In other words, Harris +3% means the electoral college vote will most likely be tied, so she needs more than 3% to win the election.
If I remember correctly, in 2020 Biden was +7% as of September, and in 2016 Clinton was +5%, so Harris is trailing both of them.
So, Trump is still slightly favored, imho.
In big cities it's the reverse, and so the big question is which side can get more of their own voters to the polls and also prevent the other side from cheating.
In 2016 that was Trump
In 2020 that was the Deep State
In 2024 it will be... hopefully, Trump again.
I don’t trust any fox polls. They did a lot of damage to Trump in the last election.
“I don’t trust any fox polls. They did a lot of damage to Trump in the last election.”
I distrust Fox News so much that I’m surprised that the retarded Sandra Smith hasn’t already “called it” for kaMAla.
ROTF! Fox has been among the very worst/most pro Democrat polls consistently for multiple cycles now. The Murdochs really hate Trump.
I agree with your comments.
Early in my career, I was an independent marketing research specialist, conducting surveys, polls, and performing the statistical analysis for very large corporations
The greatest variable that is hardest to control is sample selection and trying to create a sample that reflects the target population. It is virtually impossible where there is a large population and a small sample.
As it relates to statistical probability, there is a truth that prevails, “Statistics don’t lie, but liars use statistics. “
After all, 92.3864% of all statistics are made up!
Their cooked polls aren’t worthless.
Those polls tell you that Trump is ahead. :-)
Since Trump is winning in the EC, he should play prevent defense to keep the popular vote loss to three or less.
Yep- can’t listen to my blues on pandora- saturated with Harris.
>> I think we are overreacting to worthless FNC polls.
What you mean, “we”, kimosabe?
I pay no attention whatsoever to the cesspit of marxist disinformation called Faux Snooze.
>> It is important to remember that estimates among small subgroups are more volatile and tend to swing more than others, and that applies here.
In plain English: this is bullshit packaged as expert analysis; we’re putting it out in hopes of demoralizing those who possess a shred of common sense, because we’re evil.
“the middle class” is probably one group that wants to be unburdened by what has been….the biden-harris regime
Registered voters ??
I didn’t think anyone polled registered voters anymore.
Oh come on now, people aren’t that stupid.
I live in Chicagoland, so from my perspective, yes they are.
Its the electoral college, Fox polls are consistently anti Trump, just like the Quinnipiac and Marist polls.
LOL -- This is the RCP scorecard of pollsters in past elections.
Notice first that Fox News ranked 13th worst out of 20 pollsters in 2020, almost as bad a CNN and Quinnipiac at the bottom.
And of course they all skewed left.
More conservatives Rasmussen and Trafalgar were among the best in 2020.
Then in the 2022 midterms, Fox and CNN shot up near the topmost accurate, while conservatives Rasmussen and Trafalgar fell near the bottommost inaccurate -- what happened?
Nobody knows, nor can anyone say for sure if 2024 will be more like the 2020 presidential or the 2022 midterms.
Reasonably, you'd think it's more like 2020, which could make Rasmussen & Trafalgar more accurate.
But in this day and age, who can really say?
I notice now that New York Times/Sienna is showing the popular vote tied.
In 2020 they skewed 5-points left, but in 2022 they nearly nailed the outcome.
Take your pick.
Dumb voters are easily charmed by charm, even charm from an idiot.
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