Posted on 08/08/2024 5:50:07 AM PDT by TexasGunLover
Kamala Harris has taken a five-point lead in a head-to-head matchup with Donald Trump, according to a new nationwide poll.
The Marquette University survey also found that when third party candidates including Robert F. Kennedy and Cornel West are added, Harris has an eight-point advantage.
The shocking results show Harris continues to see a bump in popularity after President Joe Biden announced he wasn't running.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Actually..I’m guessing quite a few remember him as the guty who let Minnesota burn.
And I’m also guessing their first thought is..oh,that guy.
Ditto the severe covid lockdowns..and of course,the tampons in the boys bathroom.
Major creepy vibe.
Communism thrives by lies, until they become unsustainable, then the iron boot comes down.
The dumbing down of America is complete.
The elites are slavering behind the scenes, waiting to pounce.
Until they start purging each other, they will think they’ve got this sussed.
“The Marquette University survey...”
...is straight out of ‘The People’s Republik of Milwaukeestan.’ (Wisconsin)
Heavily weighted by Socialist Democrats. Milwaukee hasn’t had a Republican Mayor in 100+ years. I grew up there but escaped in 1970. High crime, lousy services, a welfare haven; your typical Socialist Paradise these days.
Always take THIS particular survey with a HUGE grain of salt. More like an entire Salt Lick! ;)
Oversample to be in the news, sample correctly to be correct. All the polling groups are vendors to media, and the media must be given something to chew on the BORING days of Aug.
Yeah. The list on him is huge. I mean it’s not just one thing, it’s like a dozen off the chart far left, cringeworthy moments that are on tape, in addition to the executive laws he’s signed.
The thing that calls into question the polls more than anything are the polls. If today it’s Trump +2 and tomorrow it’s Harris +2 then it’s Harris +9 then it’s Harris +4 I’ll submit to you that they are doing something wrong.
She came in 4th in her home state during presidential primaries and has done nothing in 4 years and has no platform. Trump was more popular than Biden even before the debates and then the polling went so bad that George Clooney forced Joe to stand down.
Yet some how Kamala is now popular because she calls someone weird ? I’m inclined to say the polling is nonsense
Is ANY published poll “accurate”?
Are polls published for any reason other than manipulating “public opinion”?
Is the electorate really this fickle?
Maybe this country really has hit that long slide down.
The economy is in shambles and world wars are on the horizon and a huge half of this country is STILL willing to vote in someone who contributed to getting us into this mess. I have completely lost faith in this country pulling out of this malaise.
Respectfully, when you learn how to read polls, understand party weighting then you are able to compete with me in explaining polls. Respectfully. Rasmussen keeps a consistent weight of party paticipation that is why not much movement. In their cross tabs DEM 33 GOP 31. These other polls are weighting DEM 41 GOP 29. End of the day it will be GOP 1 or 2, Dem 1 or 2 or about even for the election. See gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx. Every election is in that range. Never DEM 41 GOP 29 so those are waste of polls and they know it. Believe what you want. Same people giving you the polling narratives same people saying Kamala was not Border Czar. Succumb if you must. Respectfully.
“Is the electorate really this fickle?”
Right now many in the illiterate electorate have no idea who she is. They see a younger politician who seems to get along with everybody, when in fact she is a radical leftist all out commie. Her past statements have to be brought to the fore by DJT and the pubbies. Her VP’s record is all commie.
7% independent when independents have been growing election after election...
What is the party weight and cross tabs for any of these polls?
And remember, we haven’t even gotten to the democratic convention yet. The media and hollywood will be out in force and it is gonna be HUGE. I can’t even imagine the “BUMP” kamala will get from the convention. The media is behind her 1000%. I do not know how we combat this machine......
At this time in 2016, Hillary was ahead by 9 points, according to polls.
That ranking is for “FINAL” polling.
There is a reason all polling changes in the end, they do all sorts of garbage things up until the end.
Right now you are most likely seeing response bias affecting polling, as dejected democrats are now “excited”.
But anyone thinking this race shifted 8-10 points in the last 2 weeks is smoking some very very good stuff.
Setting up the steal.
America misses $1.80/gal, no inflation, wars, or border invasions. You can make a poll say whatever you want.
Since abortion is not a winner for either party, I pretty much ignore it as an issue, except to say this: Which one is “softer” on abortion?
This effectively removes abortion from the table for me, at least in US politics. Since I see the US as 50 separate “mostly sovereign” countries, I look to my own country’s (Kentucky) laws on Abortion when making a political decision.
i.e. abortion is a local issue. And that aligns with the recent SCOTUS decision.
They also discussed the fact that in reality, polls do not move nearly as much as what many either incompetent or political hack pollsters would have you believe. What they often capture is Response Bias. That is, one party's voters may be a little down and less eager to talk to pollsters or they may be excited and eager to talk to pollsters. Thus when pollsters contact people they get more responses from one group. That does not mean however that the other group has gone away or dramatically shrunk in size.
Baris brought up the example of Romney and Obama. Romney won the first debate. Romney supporters were suddenly very eager to talk to pollsters. They reported Romney had taken a slight lead over Obama. That was never true. Ever. Its just that Obama voters were not as eager to respond right then after their candidate had just taken an "L". They were still going to vote for him.
That's what's happening now....and yes there are ways you can measure that and filter out response bias if you want to. Trump never had a 4 point lead nationally. Harris does not lead now. Trump has a 1-2 point lead nationally and that has not changed.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.