There is a bump... It's just hidden

[dangus]

For all the talk of the Democrats' gloom at looking at the polls, and despite the presumption that surviving in the most bad-ass way possible being shot, triumphing utterly in a debate and having a convention, you might be a little dismayed looking at the polls. There appears to be no bump. There is.

No-one should be surprised it's rather small; the days of people learning where a candidate stands and making up their minds only during campaign season is long gone.

But while the bump maybe somewhat hidden, Trump has gained a few points in the polls. The only thing is that the pollsters who have released their data are the ones who have been the most negative towards Trump.

Here's who has published polls lately:

CBS moved from Trump up 1 before the debate, to Trump up 2 in a poll taken during the debate, to Trump being up five. That's +4

Emerson had Trump up one, now Trump up four. +3

Morning Consult actually had Biden up one, then Trump up one after the debate, and now has Trump up four. +5

Reuters showed a tie, but now has Trump up 2. +2

Fox had Biden up 2, now has Trump up 1. +3

New York Times went from Trump up 4 to Trump up 6. +2

Over all, he's moved up about 3 points.

[dangus]

UPDATE: Michigan’s polls collectively still add up to a close race, but a new poll from the Detroit Free Press says it ain’t close anymore: Trump up seven in two-party and multi-party polling. https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/21/michigan-poll-trump-biden-polling/74468127007/

[maddog55]

RealClearPolitics is just as bad as every other poll and when you search RealClearPolitics the searches come up center left, center and center right.

Point being, polls are meaningless and each side puts polls out they like to try and confuse people.

Can’t even trust exit polls during voting and in the last several elections you can’t trust the votes.

So my comments are as good as yours