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There is a bump... It's just hidden

Posted on 07/20/2024 10:09:05 PM PDT by dangus

For all the talk of the Democrats' gloom at looking at the polls, and despite the presumption that surviving in the most bad-ass way possible being shot, triumphing utterly in a debate and having a convention, you might be a little dismayed looking at the polls. There appears to be no bump. There is.

No-one should be surprised it's rather small; the days of people learning where a candidate stands and making up their minds only during campaign season is long gone.

But while the bump maybe somewhat hidden, Trump has gained a few points in the polls. The only thing is that the pollsters who have released their data are the ones who have been the most negative towards Trump.

Here's who has published polls lately:

CBS moved from Trump up 1 before the debate, to Trump up 2 in a poll taken during the debate, to Trump being up five. That's +4

Emerson had Trump up one, now Trump up four. +3

Morning Consult actually had Biden up one, then Trump up one after the debate, and now has Trump up four. +5

Reuters showed a tie, but now has Trump up 2. +2

Fox had Biden up 2, now has Trump up 1. +3

New York Times went from Trump up 4 to Trump up 6. +2

Over all, he's moved up about 3 points.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 0000000001notnews; poll; polls; rns; trump; trumppolls; vanity; vanitypostedinnews
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1 posted on 07/20/2024 10:09:05 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

11/5 is the only poll that counts.

These days it’s ballots rather than votes.

We’ll see.


2 posted on 07/20/2024 10:11:36 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: dangus

...plus the generic five points added to the (R) candidate to make up for the pollsters and media bias.

But minus the fraud ballot harvest, whatever that turns out to be this year. I have faith that election integrity has made gains, however. Fraud will not be eliminated but it should be greatly reduced, IMO.


3 posted on 07/20/2024 10:13:25 PM PDT by Nervous Tick ("First the Saturday people, then the Sunday people...": ISLAM is the problem!)
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To: dangus

We still have to work our asses off to do what we can to keep elections clean, but keep in mind that in 2020, the steal was baked into the polls. RealClearPolitics’ poll of polls has Trump up only 3 points, but had Biden up 8.6 points at this time in 2020. On Election Day, RCP had Biden up 7.2 points. Officially, Biden won by 4. That means that the polls actually overestimated Biden by 3, even with the steal. Trump is now 11.6 points ahead of where he was in 2020!


4 posted on 07/20/2024 10:14:44 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus
We also need to keep in mind that most people on both sides vote in a short-sighted manner about whom they think is best for their pocket-book. For roughly half the country existing on welfare or in government/academia/media/entertainment jobs, they think that means they need to support the Democrat, even if he's a total loon.

Still, I have to believe enthusiasm matters. People may loath Trump, but will they really gin up enough motivation to actually cast a vote for the vegetable? My guess is some percentage won't, even if they tell a pollster they stand with the vegetable.

5 posted on 07/20/2024 10:14:50 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
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To: Paladin2

Or 11/6 or 11/7. Until they’ve found enough ballots.


6 posted on 07/20/2024 10:18:43 PM PDT by ealgeone
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To: Nervous Tick
Yeah, you can see in the polls which states have improved election security. Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania all look pretty solid for Trump. Here's the current state of play, with Trump ahead in all toss-ups
7 posted on 07/20/2024 10:23:59 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

You’re going to have a net shutdown on 11/5 as Dems attempt to cancel the election.


8 posted on 07/20/2024 10:25:59 PM PDT by struggle
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To: dangus

I have no sympathy for people who, after supposedly finding out for the first time we are in danger of foreign leaders attacking us to take advantage of a mentally declining dementia victim Biden, will still be 50-50 for him in office!


9 posted on 07/20/2024 10:27:44 PM PDT by frank ballenger (There's a battle outside and it's raging. It'll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls.)
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To: Paladin2

There’s always someone who writes that, as if anyone talking about the polls has written “Trump won.” Do you really think anyone thinks that these poll results — from mid-July — will be used by the Electoral College to determine the winner, instead of the ballots?


10 posted on 07/20/2024 10:27:47 PM PDT by dangus
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To: Nervous Tick

I think Voter Rolls have ballooned since 2020.

With no cleaning/hygiene the Steal is ON.

After all it’s ballots, not votes.


11 posted on 07/20/2024 10:29:40 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: dangus

Corrections: Someone’s bound to pounce over the fact that Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Florida are only pinkish-red. I never upgraded them from the original chart; I don’t mean to suggest that these states are at all in play.


12 posted on 07/20/2024 10:30:02 PM PDT by dangus
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To: struggle

I don’t mean to endorse that view, but it is interesting that the Obama-Clinton-backed net security company, CloudStrike, is who brought down the internet.


13 posted on 07/20/2024 10:31:46 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

So the US voters would probably vote for a serial killer if he or she had a “D” by their name and was not “Donald Trump.”

No respect for them.

The half finished sentences and drifting thoughts and defiantly stating that he killed Medicare was all just fine with them?


14 posted on 07/20/2024 10:31:54 PM PDT by frank ballenger (There's a battle outside and it's raging. It'll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls.)
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To: ealgeone

11/19 or more.

Sick it is.


15 posted on 07/20/2024 10:33:19 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: dangus

I read the other day that because of the electoral college determining the outcome of the election, and the political demographics of the country, a democrat candidate needs to have over 3% more of the popular vote to win the presidency. (i.e. a 3% lead or less by the dem will result in the republican winning.) So Trump up by 2 or 3 or 4% is big.

Of course it’s only July, and there’s always the cheat factor. But it’s still very encouraging. And shows why the dems are so desperate to get rid of Biden.


16 posted on 07/20/2024 10:34:27 PM PDT by norcal joe
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To: dangus
Trump has a ceiling. It is what it is. There's just too many Americans who think he's Hitler. They don't care that Biden is senile. They just hate Trump.

What the polls are not measuring, however, is enthusiasm.

Every Trump-supporter is going to crawl over broken glass to vote for him. Especially after last Saturday.

Democrats are demoralized. There is zero enthusiasm for their candidate. They don't even know who their candidate is. The infighting is rampant!

(If you want some entertainment, go lurk over at DU right now. It's brutal. They're banning everyone!)

Many will not even bother showing up to vote, especially if it looks like a lost cause.

Independents (aka "low info voters")... Well, a lot of them will become "Playoffs Chiefs Fans" --in other words, they'll come on board with the winning team.

Nobody likes voting for losers and Donald Trump has the momentum right now.

17 posted on 07/20/2024 10:35:20 PM PDT by Gena Bukin (Trump/Vance 2024!!!)
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To: dangus

They won’t openly tell us anything that favors Trump.

In the old days, back in the eighties, they would cheer lead all year and we had to hope they would lose on election night. I remember how shocked I was when they were right about Bill Clinton.


18 posted on 07/20/2024 10:36:18 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: struggle

that was a trial run earlier this week folks... Bill Gates want to know... “what can I do to help stop” the Donald?


19 posted on 07/20/2024 10:36:36 PM PDT by MIA_eccl1212 (10-10-10-10)
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To: dangus

Just wait till the Rats switch horses in midstream. The polls will nosedive for these commie bastards.


20 posted on 07/20/2024 10:46:43 PM PDT by HighSierra5 (The only way you know a commie is lying is when they open their pieholes.)
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