Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
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Hebert's Boxes
In Texas YOU LOOT WE SHOOT
Might as well enjoy it!
000
WTNT64 KNHC 280155
TCUAT4
Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1000 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...10 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF IAN NOW MOVING OVER THE DRY TORTUGAS...
The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). An
elevated WeatherFlow station at Smith Shoal Light reported a
sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust of 91 mph (146 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky
“Their “condos’, which are nothing more than fancy, poorly built apartments, are less that 1/2 mile from the beach. “
When were they built?
Frying pan/fire. Mom and dad were evacuated to w. Palm Beach. Tornado warning now. sheesh.
2012
So unusual - first I’ve seen a vapor map for a hurricane.
With the storm surge projected for that area (8-12 feet), it won’t matter whether they are in A or B. I expect A, B and likely C will be told to leave. Hurricane wind combined with water will leave only elevated concrete and steel structures standing. They absolutely must leave or provide next of kin info to first responders who will urge them to leave. One of the more persuasive methods so I’ve been told is to have them write their social security number on their arms so they can be identified later.
“2012”
Built to withstand Hurricanes. Loss of power/water would be a concern.
The Tarp is holding on!
Yes, she should leave to a shelter at least but doesn’t want to with kids and a very sick old dachshund. My son wanted her to drive out of Florida this past Saturday. It’s the first hurricane since moving there, she may be in for one hell of a shock. Her neighbor told her they’re on higher ground and haven’t had problems in the past, the neighbor has been there for years, doesn’t help me not to worry.
Her sister lives on the water in Island Rock Beach and went to Orlando instead, looks like Orlando will get a ton of rain, too. She should be better off than on the water at Island Rock Beach.
My sister in St. Pete has safely evacuated to Wesley Chapel. The power lines there are underground so not as many power outages there. Unfortunately, her son and ex (in Tampa mandatory evac zone) haven’t finished boarding up ex’s house before nightfall, so they haven’t evacuated yet. They are hoping to do that first thing in the morning, but I wonder if it will be too late. Hope not. I am praying for all in harm’s way to be protected.
She’s in an evacuation zone but so far won’t leave, I don’t get it. Her first hurricane, supposed to go to a nearby high school.
I have relatives in FL. Not in a evacuation zone, but the school they are supposed to go to is in the same zone, and actually about 4 ft lower than their house, which is built to current codes, so they plan on staying.
Hurricane Ian’s eye wall is packed with lightning right now. Spectacular imagery of a powerful, intensifying storm.
https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1574799310285201410
Anything that new is built to withstand hurricanes. Reinforced concrete structure, roofs strapped/bolted down to the walls, etc. Is damage possible, yes. Biggest issue would be flooding, not the winds.
Once again, thanks for all you do...
My map shows Cape Coral’s mean elevation is 7 feet. I don’t what reference her neighbor is using when she says “high ground.” Her sister was smart and will be fine; she would be in severe danger if she stayed put.
Do you have a link for that Interactive Map? I want to get a better look at the North Ft. Myers area. Friends there.
Thanks!
Latest 11pm NHC track update. Another nudge SE. Expected to be a CAT 4 at landfall. Serious storm on the way with a CAT 3 expected well inland! www.spaghettimodels.com #IAN #flwx #hurricane
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