Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 644,202
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 528,151
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 116,051
10/31/20: REPs - 3,160,735, DEMs - 3,276,786, lead of 116,051 for DEMs, 39.5% to 38.1%
10/30/20: REPs - 2,966,747, DEMs - 3,130,430, lead of 163,683 for DEMs, 40.0% to 37.9%
10/29/20: REPs - 2,784,101, DEMs - 2,991,015, lead of 206,914 for DEMs, 40.5% to 37.7%
10/28/20: REPs - 2,595,819, DEMs - 2,841,731, lead of 245,912 for DEMs, 41.1% to 37.5%
10/27/20: REPs - 2,383,218, DEMs - 2,685,500, lead of 302,282 for DEMs, 41.8% to 37.0%
10/26/20: REPs - 2,200,418, DEMs - 2,555,072, lead of 354,654 for DEMs, 42.5% to 36.6%
10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%
10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Our favorite map and spreadsheet:
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
This is sounding like very good news.
Good morning! The FL GOP IPEV advantage has exploded out of the gate, already up to 532, 562 ballots cast. Beautiful! Dems’ overall lead has dipped below 112K.
“REPs - 3,160,735, DEMs - 3,276,786, lead of 116,051 for DEMs, 39.5% to 38.1%”
Gap down to 1.4 points.
Was 1.5 points on Election Eve 2016.
Republicans are closer today on a percentage basis than 2016. In all probability, Trump wins Florida.
As goes Florida, so goes the Nation.
I still don’t like the Democrat lead.
Well, I just dropped in the Polk, Sarasota, and Miami-Dade data in that push. They all had good days. But hopefully it continues!
Looking forward to your NC numbers. I think the D lead was down to about 270K yesterday morning, correct? Hoping another 15-20K was chopped off on Friday.
ping
Adding 6 more votes in Fl this morning...One is Independent.
Yeah, and it was about a 5K IPEV increase, as I believe Janet mentioned a 527,xxx number early this morning. That qualifies as exploding out of the gate. :-)
Well, I just dropped in the Polk, Sarasota, and Miami-Dade data in that push. They all had good days. But hopefully it continues!
only neg is that REPs lost more IPEV votes in Miami Dade (1400)
Reps still up by 5100
D VBM return rate is 76.0%. Yesterday was 74.4%
R VBM return rate is 74.6%. Yesterday was 72.6%.
1.4 point gap. Smallest gap so far.
We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.
Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]
With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.
Go Trump
Democrats are more likely to vote by mail the selection Republicans are more likely to vote in person on election day. even more now than ever this year. Plus we have an extra hundred90 thousand super voters in the bank for election day. Net 70k advantage so far
I want be sure of what is being posted...
The 114k dem lead...
This is based on solely the number of registered d that voted compared to the number of registered r that voted?
It DOESN’T account for the democrats who may have Actually voted r?
“D VBM return rate is 76.0%. Yesterday was 74.4%”
Ds added 1.6 to VBM return rate yesterday.
Projecting out: Sat 1.6, Sun 1.2 + 76.0 = 78.8 for Election Eve when we pin their turnout.
R turnout in 2016 was 81.2% overall.
starting points of 527,612 114,261 641873
after 3 county data dump
532,562 111,819 644381
EPEV R +4950
Mail D +2508
Net R +2442
Rs in Southeast Florida
Palm - 28.39%
Broward - 21.83%
Miami - 31.13%
Rs gained in Palm and Broward percentages.
Miami fell 2 days in a row by small amounts.
We’ll be +2 for POTUS in FL today. So you can mark those down now.
Yes, I answered your question in detail on the other thread a bit ago.
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