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Florida Early Vote update, 10/31/2020
ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/31/2020 | self

Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

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Combined (VBM+IPEV):

10/31/20: REPs - 3,160,735, DEMs - 3,276,786, lead of 116,051 for DEMs, 39.5% to 38.1%

10/30/20: REPs - 2,966,747, DEMs - 3,130,430, lead of 163,683 for DEMs, 40.0% to 37.9%

10/29/20: REPs - 2,784,101, DEMs - 2,991,015, lead of 206,914 for DEMs, 40.5% to 37.7%

10/28/20: REPs - 2,595,819, DEMs - 2,841,731, lead of 245,912 for DEMs, 41.1% to 37.5%

10/27/20: REPs - 2,383,218, DEMs - 2,685,500, lead of 302,282 for DEMs, 41.8% to 37.0%

10/26/20: REPs - 2,200,418, DEMs - 2,555,072, lead of 354,654 for DEMs, 42.5% to 36.6%

10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%

10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%

10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%

10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%

10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%

10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%

1 posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: Ravi; LS; bort; byecomey; Coop; carton253

Our favorite map and spreadsheet:

bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0


2 posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:40 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

This is sounding like very good news.


3 posted on 10/31/2020 5:49:47 AM PDT by CurlyDave
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Good morning! The FL GOP IPEV advantage has exploded out of the gate, already up to 532, 562 ballots cast. Beautiful! Dems’ overall lead has dipped below 112K.


4 posted on 10/31/2020 5:50:28 AM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

“REPs - 3,160,735, DEMs - 3,276,786, lead of 116,051 for DEMs, 39.5% to 38.1%”

Gap down to 1.4 points.

Was 1.5 points on Election Eve 2016.

Republicans are closer today on a percentage basis than 2016. In all probability, Trump wins Florida.

As goes Florida, so goes the Nation.


5 posted on 10/31/2020 5:50:29 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

I still don’t like the Democrat lead.


6 posted on 10/31/2020 5:51:00 AM PDT by Lazamataz (The NYT commits acts of violence with their words.)
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To: Coop

Well, I just dropped in the Polk, Sarasota, and Miami-Dade data in that push. They all had good days. But hopefully it continues!


7 posted on 10/31/2020 5:51:21 AM PDT by byecomey
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To: bort

Looking forward to your NC numbers. I think the D lead was down to about 270K yesterday morning, correct? Hoping another 15-20K was chopped off on Friday.


8 posted on 10/31/2020 5:51:48 AM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: janetjanet998

ping


9 posted on 10/31/2020 5:52:21 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: CurlyDave

Adding 6 more votes in Fl this morning...One is Independent.


10 posted on 10/31/2020 5:53:07 AM PDT by hollywood12345
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To: byecomey; janetjanet998

Yeah, and it was about a 5K IPEV increase, as I believe Janet mentioned a 527,xxx number early this morning. That qualifies as exploding out of the gate. :-)


11 posted on 10/31/2020 5:54:03 AM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: byecomey

Well, I just dropped in the Polk, Sarasota, and Miami-Dade data in that push. They all had good days. But hopefully it continues!


only neg is that REPs lost more IPEV votes in Miami Dade (1400)

Reps still up by 5100


12 posted on 10/31/2020 5:54:04 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: SpeedyInTexas

D VBM return rate is 76.0%. Yesterday was 74.4%

R VBM return rate is 74.6%. Yesterday was 72.6%.

1.4 point gap. Smallest gap so far.

We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.

Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]

With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.

Go Trump


13 posted on 10/31/2020 5:54:32 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Lazamataz

Democrats are more likely to vote by mail the selection Republicans are more likely to vote in person on election day. even more now than ever this year. Plus we have an extra hundred90 thousand super voters in the bank for election day. Net 70k advantage so far


14 posted on 10/31/2020 5:56:32 AM PDT by hollywood12345
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To: SpeedyInTexas

I want be sure of what is being posted...

The 114k dem lead...

This is based on solely the number of registered d that voted compared to the number of registered r that voted?

It DOESN’T account for the democrats who may have Actually voted r?


15 posted on 10/31/2020 5:57:13 AM PDT by SheepWhisperer (My enemy saw me on my knees, head bowed and thought they had won until I rose up and said Amen!)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

“D VBM return rate is 76.0%. Yesterday was 74.4%”

Ds added 1.6 to VBM return rate yesterday.

Projecting out: Sat 1.6, Sun 1.2 + 76.0 = 78.8 for Election Eve when we pin their turnout.

R turnout in 2016 was 81.2% overall.


16 posted on 10/31/2020 5:57:21 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: janetjanet998

starting points of 527,612 114,261 641873

after 3 county data dump

532,562 111,819 644381

EPEV R +4950
Mail D +2508

Net R +2442


17 posted on 10/31/2020 5:57:25 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Rs in Southeast Florida

Palm - 28.39%
Broward - 21.83%
Miami - 31.13%

Rs gained in Palm and Broward percentages.

Miami fell 2 days in a row by small amounts.


18 posted on 10/31/2020 5:59:36 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: janetjanet998

We’ll be +2 for POTUS in FL today. So you can mark those down now.


19 posted on 10/31/2020 6:00:21 AM PDT by lodi90
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To: SheepWhisperer

Yes, I answered your question in detail on the other thread a bit ago.


20 posted on 10/31/2020 6:05:05 AM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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