starting points of 527,612 114,261 641873
after 3 county data dump
532,562 111,819 644381
EPEV R +4950
Mail D +2508
Net R +2442
We’ll be +2 for POTUS in FL today. So you can mark those down now.
Ok 9 hours until 6pm or 27 updates
assuming R net +250 after hours and the current IPEV net +3309
to reach R+ 25,000 day 21,441 more or 794 more per update
to reach R+ 30,000 day 26,441 more or 979 per update
to reach R+ 35,000 day 31,441 more or 1164 per update
to reach R+ 40,000 day 35,441 more or 1312 per update
side note: It is pouring rain in NE Broward county right now but it should stop soon (after 2-4 inches overnight)
final numbers
RPEV 31916 R
Mail 9752 D
net 22,151 Reps
tomorrow ..who knows! DEMS won IPEV by +52K last year...but I don’t if more R counties are opened this year vs last...I will assume nothing has changed in that regard
1) going with “all other things equal” IPEV Rep +10K
2)but not all other things are not equal it’s souls to the polls day , I see some at other places
pointing out a big push of that was last Sunday and churches aren’t as crowded this year because of Covid, plus some of it is cannibalized in the mail ins I am giving the DEMS a +30K souls to the polls surge
3) it was raining a good chunk of the day in the D stronghold of Broward, I assume this deterred some voting and they will vote Sunday instead good for +1K
3) Miami vs Sarasota dump : I don’t think Sarasota can keep up with the Miami-dade dump on its own now (it had POlK to help today) DEMS +1K
+10-20-1-1
Dems +12K in IPEV OR 333 every 30 min update(36 total) from 6am-6pm
4)mail ins Dems +9K today which was a +3 jump from Friday
I will go with a +10K day here or +278 per update
333+278=611
final: Dems gain 22K or an average of 611 every 20 min update from 6-6 (first few will be very lite so others need to be higher)
I hope I am overestimating souls to the polls surge
and underestimating the “all other things equal” Rep net IPEV gain. If I am i still “win” in my mind since it helps Trump
but I guess a +22 dems net gain
but we should know early if I an way off if Dems are falling hsort of +700 gains every update during peak voting hours