“REPs - 3,160,735, DEMs - 3,276,786, lead of 116,051 for DEMs, 39.5% to 38.1%”
Gap down to 1.4 points.
Was 1.5 points on Election Eve 2016.
Republicans are closer today on a percentage basis than 2016. In all probability, Trump wins Florida.
As goes Florida, so goes the Nation.
D VBM return rate is 76.0%. Yesterday was 74.4%
R VBM return rate is 74.6%. Yesterday was 72.6%.
1.4 point gap. Smallest gap so far.
We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.
Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]
With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.
Go Trump