Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Will it be about 40,000 DEM lead by Tuesday?
You are correct. This looks at who voted, not how they voted.
There seem to be a lot of right-leaning Floridians planning to go vote today. I know of 4 Trump voters in Pensacola going today. Hope it’s a massive trend! Yesterday was definitely a good GOP day.
My prediction was Dems at +98,4xx, +/- 5 at COB Monday. LS thinks it will be lower than 40K, most of the other folks around here are in my range, with Speedy the most pessimistic at 120K.
Ok 9 hours until 6pm or 27 updates
assuming R net +250 after hours and the current IPEV net +3309
to reach R+ 25,000 day 21,441 more or 794 more per update
to reach R+ 30,000 day 26,441 more or 979 per update
to reach R+ 35,000 day 31,441 more or 1164 per update
to reach R+ 40,000 day 35,441 more or 1312 per update
side note: It is pouring rain in NE Broward county right now but it should stop soon (after 2-4 inches overnight)
“10/31/20: REPs - 3,160,735, DEMs - 3,276,786, lead of 116,051 for DEMs, 39.5% to 38.1% “
I’m assuming this is party affiliation of those who’ve voted, I’m also assuming that very few pubbies will vote Biden, and many dems will vote Trump.
Looks like a done deal.
assuming R net +250 after hours and the current IPEV net +3309
—
correction to previous post Reps have a NET +3309 so far not IPEV net of that
FYI
the update before I made that post was REP +900ish
Agree but many are Mexicans, Cubans and black and more are for Trump 2020 than they were in 2016.
By Noon, I would hope we are under 100K.
People in Florida who actually work for a living will be voting this weekend and on election day.
Haha - I thought the same. Trump is going to make Napoleon-boy piss away yet another fortune in anger.
Thank you for the previous reply. Pardon me. I simply missed that ping this morning.
This looks better than good news =o)
REP IPEV net gains rather sluggish
example last update
+737 EPEV - (-126) = R +863 net
some smaller red counties not opened yet
It’ll be interesting to see if the lead gets under 65K. Maybe a bit of a long shot. It won’t hold there, but it’s a great psychological boost.
Why? Because 65K is the approximate ending D - R gap for 2016. Overall results, that is.
No pardon needed. I just didn’t want to type it all again. :-)
We've been burned by such assumptions before. We'll know soon enough.
So the massive GOP gains during the previous work weeks were all people who are on welfare or retired?
I thought someone (Speedy?) had been advertising 96K as the 2016 overall Dem lead?
No, I think that was LS using that as his overall ending vote lead. I have 65K for Election Day.
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