Posted on 10/29/2020 6:37:02 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
After 2016, it’s hard to have a lot of faith in the polls, so the question is, how do we assess the state of the race? In 2016, most state polls were as bad as national polls, and cherrypicking specific polls isn’t a great option either, as it lends itself to confirmation bias.
So, in many ways, the best thing we can use to judge the state of the race is to analyze early-voting statistics. According to Gallup 62 percent of Democrat and 28 percent of Republican voters plan to vote early this year when they otherwise have been only within a few points of each other. So, what can we say about the state of the election based on early voting statistics?
Writing at UncoveredDC, bestselling author Larry Schweikart looked at some early voting numbers.
Schweikart noted that despite the Democrats’ early lead in early voting, both in vote-by-mail (VBM) and in-person early voting (IPEV), they peaked around October 16 and Republicans have been catching up—big time. In Florida, for example, GOP votes are “on a pace to be well ahead of 2016, when Hillary Clinton entered election day with an 88,000 lead in the Sunshine State.”
Things are also looking good in North Carolina. According to Schweikart, “While Democrats lead by 301,000 (and this is also falling rapidly), the black vote currently is at 20% of all turnout, behind the black share of all 2016 turnout of 21.89%—itself a drop off from 2012. When Barack Obama won the state in 2012, the share of the black vote was 23%, but he won by only one point.” Polls have also suggested that Trump has increased his support from the black community since 2016.
Schweikart also sees good news for Trump in Virginia
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
Yea, you think Trump won’t say anything? He has a army of lawyers in PA already. Stop the doom and gloom, we are going to win.
@dfwgator - omg lol that’s funny!
The rioting will keep many from the polls on election day.
In the cities...
from Larry Schweikart.
Perhaps you should hate Democrats.
You say turnout is down in Philly.As you note, we’re hoping for 15% - more, please God - of the black vote.
But even at 15%, each two points of drop in turnout is as good as 1 point of actual voting for Trump. Not voting at all is halfway to voting R.
True. I’ve always counted a stay at home as half a Trump vote.
Still, there is something magic about that 80% level. If Biteme is below 80% with blacks, he’s finished. Cankles lost with 88% black vote.
Why wouldn’t PA have fraud that mirrors the primary?
The primary was Tuesday June 2nd.
June 4th - Biden had 734,400 votes with 98% of districts reporting.
Biden wound up with 1,264,624 when the counting was done.
42% of his vote came in in the last 2% counted.
June 4th - Trump had 861,822
At last report, he had 1,053,616 total votes.
The last 2% accounted for 18% of his total.
I'm a poll watcher in PA, and I know that the demonRATs cheat, but so do our lawyers and thousands of other poll watchers.
We are not giving up, and biden will not steal PA.
If this were combat, I'd kick your cowardly ass into frag territory, then I'd frag you.
People like you are as worthless as teats on a boar hog.
Do you ever fight for anything?
Yes. As an attorney I fought against the Mexican Mafia. I received multiple death threats.
As a citizen, I thwarted 2 robberies, despite having guns drawn on me. One was in Philadelphia and the other was in Essington, PA.
BTW, you really shouldn’t threaten people with physical violence. Doing so makes you sound like you belong to ANTIFA.
In the cities is where the big numbers of Democrats are.
Hopefully my mom will get her ballot tomorrow... We live in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. She is registered Republican and doing absentee ballot. I mistakenly thought she had a ballot already, but not so. They said it was mailed on Tuesday 27 Oct. I assume it is coming from Downtown Pittsburgh, but who knows. I am concerned with her registration they might not really send it.
You're right... the damn "doom & gloom" clowns can't see we're gonna have a TRUMP LANDSLIDE!
If you are reading PJMedia, you are engaged enough to get your keister to the polls...
You really need to familiarize yourself with the entire case before you panic. All SCOTUS said in the PA case was that it was too close to the election to hear the case and make a decision before election day. So they are allowing PA to accept the ballots come in after the deadline, but they will be required to keep late ballots separated and not count them until after SCOTUS considers the merits of the case. The PA Secretary of State has already notified the counties and sent a confirmation to SCOTUS of that notification.
“You really need to familiarize yourself with the entire case before you panic.”
I am sort of familiar with the case as I have read the briefs including the 61 page Application for Stay with the Writ of Certiorari attached, starting on page 12.
I’ve been licensed to practice law in Pennsylvania since 1991. I’m also licensed in Nevada, Texas, and some Federal Courts as well.
It would have been better if Roberts didn’t side with the 3 leftist Justices.
Guess you were really wrong.
Guess I was, who thought they would be willing to expose their entire fraud machine to win! they usually reserved that for the close elections. But because they did, they will now lose and be exposed.
They have proven so bad that I am doubtful now of a legal remedy. My only response is giving them back what they gave us for 4 years in spades.
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