Posted on 10/18/2020 2:10:36 PM PDT by 11th_VA
This is my follow-up article about the presidential election polls and predictions about the election results. You can read the first article here.
The best tool we have to determine the outcome of elections is polls. Each poll has its own bias and we can get rid of some of the bias in individual polls by combining the results of each individual poll in one giant poll. Fivethirtyeight is a website that does this for us. Its method isn't fool proof though. We can get rid of some of the bias, but not all of it.
Right before the 2016 presidential election, on November 7th, Fivethirtyeight estimated that Hillary Clinton had a 67% chance of winning the election. Yet, Donald Trump crushed Hillary. There are several reasons why this happened. I am not going to waste your time to discuss these. The most important factor was that voters didn't reveal their true intentions when asked by pollsters. As a result, polls failed to predict the outcome of the 2016 elections. Take a look at this screenshot of Fivethirtyeight's website from November 7, 2016 (the day before the 2016 election): ...
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
“ Wrong. Most pollsters had it right in 2016. They had Hillary by about 3%.”
I don’t know if you are just repeating a Dem talking point out of ignorance or being purposefully provocative, but that’s flat out wrong. They did NOT have “Hillary by 3%”.
Right before the election her chances of WINNING (not getting the popular vote) was at 98% in many media outlets.
There should not be schadenfreude with a Trump win, but a period of thanksgiving.
Why not both?
Yeah they did, here it is
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
Yeah, they nailed it, within 1 point because Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1. And that is why "the polls had it wrong" is BS. The polls had it right. But....The analysis of the polls was wrong because of the Electoral College.
You’re both right. Just before the 2016 election, the polls accurately reflected the results of the election. However, the Electoral College was not taken into account when the Marxist Media analyzed them and the polls 3 weeks before the elections were way off, having Hillary 9% or more ahead of Trump.
These claims are highly misleading. Yes, Trump won a convincing electoral college victory, however that was due to him over performing expectations in a couple states, namely Michigan and Wisconsin and Iowa. Polls showed trump winning Florida and Ohio. Pennsylvania was well within the MoE. He was the underdog to be sure but not nearly as big as many people now think.
The national polls were almost dead on accurate. That’s just false to say the national polls were wrong in 2016.
Anyone thinking the “polls are wrong” this year is gonna be in for a big fvcking surprise. Trump is in a deep deep hole and is in WAY way worse position than this time in 2016.
Read the article...And I was encouraged...I don’t put much faith in polls. But I am concerned about one type of polling data, “presidential job approval”. I’m sure the accuracy of this Gallup data below is no better than any other. But its significance for me is based on the results when related to the reelection of incumbent presidents. Twice, since 1948 in eleven elections, POTUS incumbents with less than 50% job approval were reelected.—Truman 1948, 40% and G.W. Bush 2004, 49%.
While these poll results were certainly obtained with the same under/oversampling bias etc. that have always contaminated results, IMO, the relationship to reelection is very interesting.
Trump is in a deep deep hole and is in WAY way worse position than this time in 2016.
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So, every down ticket campaign is being gaslighted by the Trump internal poll releases?
Every metric meticulously examined by multiple competitive statisticians and vote auditors, who slice and dice down to the precinct level (or finer) is way off and is contradicted by Dem polls?
The preponderance of anecdotal evidence, supported by video and personal testimonials, are inconsequential?
I will ask the same question I always pose to those who agree with you: what is your personal Plan B for when we become the USSA/People’s Republic of the United States?
You are out of your mind!!!
I don’t have a plan when Biden wins. Hopefully the senate margin is thin enough so that they can’t change the filibuster.
But that has zero to do with the state of the race. I clearly
Do not want Biden and Dems to win. I’m just calling it like I see it.
There is ZERO real evidence to show trump is anywhere close to being in position to win. Rally sizes don’t matter, so called “enthusiasm” doesn’t matter (and Biden has a ton of it btw......not for him personally of course, but there are MANY who hate trump and Repubs so much they are as enthused as any voter could be to vote against trump).
He could win, yes, if he overperforms enough swing state polls but that’s a very very low probability. He’s way down.
Everything I said about 2016 is 1000% accurate. This isn’t 2016. Not even remotely close.
He could win, yes, if he overperforms enough swing state polls but that’s a very very low probability. He’s way down
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Just to be sure I’m understanding:
You believe strongly that the individual down-ticket campaigns are being lied to by the Trump Campaign and the RNC internal pollsters?
You do not accept the analysis of our resident vote auditors and the other competitive statiticians posting everywhere, who use very granular models and inputs?
Incidentally, Robert Barnes, who makes a nice side living as a bettor, is betting on Trump in person at all the EU betting shops next week. He made $500k betting on Trump in 2016. Is he making a fool’s bet this time? Are those who follow and emulate being gaslighted?
If there is such a deep wellspring of hatred, why doesn’t it translate to something evident? Personally, I don’t put a lot of stock in either the rioters (who are either paid or just like to break things and hit people) or the hysterics (who are , after all, hysterical/unstable to begin with) as evidence of hatred that will translate to votes. I _do_ think they will manifest votes in deep Blue Enclaves, but that’s popular vote, not Electoral College votes.
If the Senate will flip (even thinly), why would they then not be able to end the filibuster, pack the courts and make sure we become a one-party state for perpetuity?
More importantly, why do you sound as though you aren’t really concerned or not concerned enough to protect your assets, family, self? If you are so deeply pessimistic, why no Plan B? Do you think nothing will change? Or are you just resigned to dystopian America?
I’m sorry to persist. None of what you post seems to make much sense to me. Obviously, you are affected by living in Deep Blue St Louis, although I’ve always thought of Missouri as at least a purple _state_.
1) I don’t know what you mean by gaslighting the Down ballot campaigns. Even if the down ballot races know trump is way down, they have little choice but to align themselves with trump because they still need the base to turn out.
2) I follow the early voting analysis a little but I think it’s been proven that EV and VBM analysis has little to zero affect on the final result.
3) I like Robert Barnes and think he’s sharp. That doesn’t mean he can’t be wrong. He was quite wrong about the Repubs holding the house in 2018.
4) The Trump hate will translate into an army of suburban upper class white voters flocking to the polls to vote against Trump
5) I think that’s their intent. Although Manchin and Sinema have already said they’re not on board so I think they’ll need 53ish seats to eliminate the filibuster.
6) I’m quite concerned, although not much I can do other than vote. I’m going to uproot my family and go live off the grid somewhere remote.
Yep. Absolute BS.
1) I don’t know what you mean by gaslighting the Down ballot campaigns. Even if the down ballot races know trump is way down, they have little choice but to align themselves with trump because they still need the base to turn out.
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Trump Campaign and RNC share the internal polls they take with the Congressional/Senate candidate, usually via the weekly conference calls. I was told WI +4 for Trump back in August by a Congressional candidate. Not all down ticket campaigns can afford their own polling, especially early on.
FWIW, you are way off re: analysis of EV and VBM. That is where the truth is seen.
2018 was stolen, mostly in CA. This year, GOP is also ballot harvesting and the other analyses we see are beginning to jibe with the statistical approaches. One such firm just moved WI *officially* to Trump and other so-called Biden states are bumped up a tier, mostly to tilting or leaning Trump.
Thankfully, I think you will be pleasantly surprised on November 3.
You certainly bring some sobering thoughts to the discussion. However I don’t agree with your pessimism. One area Barnes addressed that is not captured with the 2016 figures is the closing of the DEM/GOP gaps in new registrations. Republicans are making huge gains in new registered voters in FL, PA, WI and MI. In last nights’ rally in WI, the republicans signed up over 13,000 people.
Second, the actual figures of mail-in ballots returned are actively being tallied. In my state of FL the dems are seriously under-performing, and the local polls of Hispanics are unbelievably strong for Trump. This includes exiled Cubans and Venezuelans and many Puerto Ricans who came here after Hurricane Maria.
Third, I don’t believe for a second that the prevailing media view that the people blame Trump for COVID is working beyond the hard core DEMS. Most democrats have businesses to run, jobs to go to and children who need to get back to school. People see who is taking action to get the economy open again and who is holding us back. Just my opinion but Biden’s wish of closing things back down with no plan for reopening is a big loser. Not to mention his national order for mandatory masks at all times indoor and outdoor.
I respect your opinion but Trump’s campaign has incredible magnetic energy and the democrats have only hate and radical plans. They may draw in most of their base but new and swing voters find them repellant.
Thanks, but it will not be an unset. Biden has never been in this race except in fake polls.
“Polls showed trump winning Florida and Ohio.”
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Two weeks before the election, polls showed Clinton up 4 points in Florida and 5.9 nationally. That was the Realclearpolitics average. Polls will tighten over the next two weeks as pollsters use EV data and reality to tweak their polls.
When you say the national polls were almost dead on accurate, you are referring to the one day before election day polls. Those showed Clinton with a 3.3 national lead which was, in reality, a 2.1% lead.
At this point, the real comparator is 2 weeks before election day, and the 2016 polls were showing a fairly comfortable 4 lead for Clinton in Florida.
We'll see. Not campaigning in person hurt Hillary in 2016. So far, Biden is doing even less, and when he does nobody shows up.
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