1) I don’t know what you mean by gaslighting the Down ballot campaigns. Even if the down ballot races know trump is way down, they have little choice but to align themselves with trump because they still need the base to turn out.
2) I follow the early voting analysis a little but I think it’s been proven that EV and VBM analysis has little to zero affect on the final result.
3) I like Robert Barnes and think he’s sharp. That doesn’t mean he can’t be wrong. He was quite wrong about the Repubs holding the house in 2018.
4) The Trump hate will translate into an army of suburban upper class white voters flocking to the polls to vote against Trump
5) I think that’s their intent. Although Manchin and Sinema have already said they’re not on board so I think they’ll need 53ish seats to eliminate the filibuster.
6) I’m quite concerned, although not much I can do other than vote. I’m going to uproot my family and go live off the grid somewhere remote.
1) I don’t know what you mean by gaslighting the Down ballot campaigns. Even if the down ballot races know trump is way down, they have little choice but to align themselves with trump because they still need the base to turn out.
__________________
Trump Campaign and RNC share the internal polls they take with the Congressional/Senate candidate, usually via the weekly conference calls. I was told WI +4 for Trump back in August by a Congressional candidate. Not all down ticket campaigns can afford their own polling, especially early on.
FWIW, you are way off re: analysis of EV and VBM. That is where the truth is seen.
2018 was stolen, mostly in CA. This year, GOP is also ballot harvesting and the other analyses we see are beginning to jibe with the statistical approaches. One such firm just moved WI *officially* to Trump and other so-called Biden states are bumped up a tier, mostly to tilting or leaning Trump.
Thankfully, I think you will be pleasantly surprised on November 3.
You certainly bring some sobering thoughts to the discussion. However I don’t agree with your pessimism. One area Barnes addressed that is not captured with the 2016 figures is the closing of the DEM/GOP gaps in new registrations. Republicans are making huge gains in new registered voters in FL, PA, WI and MI. In last nights’ rally in WI, the republicans signed up over 13,000 people.
Second, the actual figures of mail-in ballots returned are actively being tallied. In my state of FL the dems are seriously under-performing, and the local polls of Hispanics are unbelievably strong for Trump. This includes exiled Cubans and Venezuelans and many Puerto Ricans who came here after Hurricane Maria.
Third, I don’t believe for a second that the prevailing media view that the people blame Trump for COVID is working beyond the hard core DEMS. Most democrats have businesses to run, jobs to go to and children who need to get back to school. People see who is taking action to get the economy open again and who is holding us back. Just my opinion but Biden’s wish of closing things back down with no plan for reopening is a big loser. Not to mention his national order for mandatory masks at all times indoor and outdoor.
I respect your opinion but Trump’s campaign has incredible magnetic energy and the democrats have only hate and radical plans. They may draw in most of their base but new and swing voters find them repellant.
We'll see. Not campaigning in person hurt Hillary in 2016. So far, Biden is doing even less, and when he does nobody shows up.