He could win, yes, if he overperforms enough swing state polls but that’s a very very low probability. He’s way down
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Just to be sure I’m understanding:
You believe strongly that the individual down-ticket campaigns are being lied to by the Trump Campaign and the RNC internal pollsters?
You do not accept the analysis of our resident vote auditors and the other competitive statiticians posting everywhere, who use very granular models and inputs?
Incidentally, Robert Barnes, who makes a nice side living as a bettor, is betting on Trump in person at all the EU betting shops next week. He made $500k betting on Trump in 2016. Is he making a fool’s bet this time? Are those who follow and emulate being gaslighted?
If there is such a deep wellspring of hatred, why doesn’t it translate to something evident? Personally, I don’t put a lot of stock in either the rioters (who are either paid or just like to break things and hit people) or the hysterics (who are , after all, hysterical/unstable to begin with) as evidence of hatred that will translate to votes. I _do_ think they will manifest votes in deep Blue Enclaves, but that’s popular vote, not Electoral College votes.
If the Senate will flip (even thinly), why would they then not be able to end the filibuster, pack the courts and make sure we become a one-party state for perpetuity?
More importantly, why do you sound as though you aren’t really concerned or not concerned enough to protect your assets, family, self? If you are so deeply pessimistic, why no Plan B? Do you think nothing will change? Or are you just resigned to dystopian America?
I’m sorry to persist. None of what you post seems to make much sense to me. Obviously, you are affected by living in Deep Blue St Louis, although I’ve always thought of Missouri as at least a purple _state_.
1) I don’t know what you mean by gaslighting the Down ballot campaigns. Even if the down ballot races know trump is way down, they have little choice but to align themselves with trump because they still need the base to turn out.
2) I follow the early voting analysis a little but I think it’s been proven that EV and VBM analysis has little to zero affect on the final result.
3) I like Robert Barnes and think he’s sharp. That doesn’t mean he can’t be wrong. He was quite wrong about the Repubs holding the house in 2018.
4) The Trump hate will translate into an army of suburban upper class white voters flocking to the polls to vote against Trump
5) I think that’s their intent. Although Manchin and Sinema have already said they’re not on board so I think they’ll need 53ish seats to eliminate the filibuster.
6) I’m quite concerned, although not much I can do other than vote. I’m going to uproot my family and go live off the grid somewhere remote.