State of Play: New Mexico

10/13/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

2020 New Mexico “Land of Enchantment” Election

[SpeedyInTexas]

Voter Registration Statistics

2016
Dems – 599813 (47% of state)
Reps – 399930 (31% of state)
Others - 289,677 (22% of state)

2020 as of 09/30/2020
Dems - 603,039 (45.4% of state)
Reps - 413,605 (31.1% of state)
Others - 312,231 (23.5% of state)

Dem gain 2016-2020: +3,226
Rep gain 2016-2020: +13,675
Other gain 2016-2020: +22,554

Results from last 3 elections
2008: D - 56.91%, R - 41.78%
2012: D – 52.99%, R- 42.84%
2016: D – 48.26%, R- 40.04%, L – 9.34%

The Dem vote has gone down 3 straight elections. In 2016 Libertarian Gary Johnson (former Rep Governor of New Mexico) receive 74,541 votes. Trump + Johnson exceeded Clinton’s vote.

In 2008, the Libertarian candidate only received 2,428 votes.

Clinton beat Trump by 65,567.

New Mexico’s 2016 turnout was 55% Voting Eligible Population (Ranked 45th highest in US).

State Facts
New Mexico has a higher percentage of Latino residents than any other state.

In 2008 Taos opened its slopes to snowboarders, ending one of the longest standing bans on single-plank riding in the world’s resort industry. Ending the ban, is widely recognized as a sad chapter in American history.

Outlook
While New Mexico leans towards Biden right now, New Mexico could surprise in November. Expect the results to be much closer than 2016 with Johnson not on the ballot. Possibly a 1-2 point race.

[SpeedyInTexas]

ping

[ConservativeDude]

In 2008 Taos opened its slopes to snowboarders, ending one of the longest standing bans on single-plank riding in the world’s resort industry. Ending the ban, is widely recognized as a sad chapter in American history.”

fascinating. not sure I see the relevance in this context, however.

[OSTATE]

Correct me if I’m wrong but, I believe that NM passed a law that their Electorial College votes would go to whoever won the popular vote. I believe Colorado did the same.

Dumb! Dumb! That means those running for POTUS couln’t care less about those states.

[AZJeep]

No, these votes have a caveat - if most other states do it.
So not relevant for this election.

[Mount Athos]

Those agreements only go into effect once they get enough states to agree, which they haven’t yet.

Those agreements will also be terminated the same millisecond that a Republican wins the popular vote and Democrat wins the electoral. By leftist judges in those same states or whatever

[Fellow Traveler]

Trump needs to be running on protecting fracking here. Southeastern New Mexico is part of the Permian Basin. Fracking is a source of high paying jobs in that area. Without it all they have is some spotty agriculture and the tourist attractions in Carlsbad and Roswell. If you travel there you will see obscure places like Jal NM that are boom towns now, 20 years ago they were a flyspeck on the map. Also 30 to 40 percent of New Mexico’s state revenue comes directly form oil and gas taxes. Without fracking you are looking at massive cuts to education and other state services. Also, New Mexico’s governor is an idiot. Rumor has it she was on Biden short list for VP but he managed to find a bigger fool to run with. She is one of these far left loons that appeals to the hippie dippy types you find in Santa Fe and Taos. She actually ran on banning fracking and then had to change her tune once she got in office.

[CedarDave]

See my tag line:

NM's oil patch needs fracking; large signs here saying: "Vote Trump 2020. Your job depends on it."

[KC_Conspirator]

Those agreements will also be terminated the same millisecond that a Republican wins the popular vote...

Correct.

[CedarDave]

Open for comment...

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[BigEdLB]

Trump has a chance of carrying NM. Better chance than CO. Who da thought?

[1Old Pro]

In 2008 Taos opened its slopes to snowboarders, ending one of the longest standing bans on single-plank riding in the world’s resort industry. Ending the ban, is widely recognized as a sad chapter in American history. I>

LOL, and yes, NM could go for Trump.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Lived in Colorado, only skied in Taos.

Colorado seems gone, gone, gone. Pessimist? Yep.

I think Trump could have a closer race in NM than CO.

[colorado tanker]

Trump is spending no money in Colorado. I haven't seen any ads in a long time.

On the positive side I'm seeing lots of effective Gardner ads.

[BigEdLB]

My grandparents were big in the Colorado GOP 80 years ago. Different GOP then

[FoundinTexas]

We inherited a second home/ranch in SE New Mexico. My husband’s large family is Hispanic and many work in the oil industry. Almost all are solid Republican and ALL are sick of the NM governor. Praying NM goes RED!

[Tijeras_Slim]

Lot’s of good people in that part of the state.

[Dr. Sivana]

Correct me if I’m wrong but, I believe that NM passed a law that their Electorial College votes would go to whoever won the popular vote. I believe Colorado did the same.

IF these laws were constitutional, and they aren't, they would only kick in after states with a combined majority of electoral votes passed identical legislation.

[Coop]

Colorado seems gone, gone, gone. Pessimist? Yep.

You are a pessimist, and I'd like to know why.

Trump lost CO by only 2.8 points (~72K votes) in 2016. Since that time the Dems have a net gain of nearly 93K active registered voters, which is disappointing. That would translate to approx. a 6-point Biden lead. However:

• Unaffiliated voters (1.5M) far outnumber Dems (1.1M) and GOPers (1.0M) [#s as of 10/1/20]
• Johnson (5.0) and McMullin (1.0) took 6% of the state's votes, to only 1.3% for Green Partier Stein. That leaves 4.7% of "hidden Trump margin" that POTUS could tap into. He'd still need improved GOP turnout, which I think he will get.

Given the turnout machine still needed to save Sen. Cory Gardner, I have hope Trump pulls an upset here. It would be helpful if Trump were spending money and making a real play for CO votes, but he doesn't need them to win the election.

[LS]

Coop, normally I’d be with you based on the #S, but the CO numbers don’t represent what you think they do.

First, the state took a hard left swing from 2012, when Rs led by SIX PERCENT to 2016 when Ds led by over 1%. Second, most of this swing was not “indies” changing their minds but an influx of California lefties. I have this from Californians who have residences in both states. So your “indies” in CO are not 50/50: they are lazy Ds who didn’t register as Ds.

Now, the good news this time is that Hi-Hi-Hickenlooper is running a crap campaign; Gardner is down but not out; but I still don’t see Trump winning the Gary Johnson voters there, who are in CO sharply leftists.