Posted on 09/15/2020 6:43:32 AM PDT by nwrep
Note: This is a poll by Scott Rasmussen, separate from and not aligned with Rasmussen Reports. The poll uses a highly optimistic turnout model assuming a 36-37 R-D split, which is the most favorable Republican model of any pollsters, assuming near parity with Dems.
The key findings:
Out of 941 likely voters polled, 48% said they would vote for Biden, while 43% would choose Trump. The president has lost one percentage point since a similar poll roughly two weeks ago, while Biden's share of the likely vote has remained the same.
"GOP voters seem more engaged and more likely to turn out. However, Biden has a bigger lead within his party (82 points) than Trump does in his (75 points). Biden has a modest lead among Independents."
The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Rasmussen using a mixed-mode approach from September 10-12. The sample included 941 Likely Voters, defined as those who say they are “definitely going to vote” or “very likely to vote” and who know how they will vote. The Likely Voter sample was 36% Republican, 37% Democrat and 27% Independent.
You are mistaken people do care about it because biden turned those stories into massive negative ad campaigns.
I don’t understand how Biden turning it into campaign ads means that people care about it?
I think you are more interested in telling a story here then telling the story.
Woodward doesn’t matter
Most people are tuning out Fake News
The left is going bananas
Biden isn’t running a winning campaign
If I was Democrat, I would be worried
Trump has this in the bag.
This comment isn’t directed at anyone in particular, just my usual observation every four years.
I love all FReepers, but there are many I’d never want to be in a foxhole with. One bad news story, one bad poll, and they’re throwing in the towel. For the rest of us who are in this for the long haul -— STAND STRONG.
People who are sick of dishonest polling never give answers contrary to their intentions do they?
In 60 years of voting, I was never polled.
************
I’ve never responded to any phone polls. What’s the point? Polls swing and there’s usually some type of agenda at work.
Hillarious that a sample with 36% Rs to 37% Ds and 25% is is the most "generous poll model to Republicans. People are getting harder to poll. If you have ever done a Rasmussen automated poll, they are among the most irritating. You are responding to a computer for several minutes until you finally decide that it is BS and hang up and the computer autodials the next victim. People like Slow Joe with absolutely nothing to do are typically the ones who finish them.
Look I’m sorry but this is a rare opportunity on this thread to discuss the fact that we probably are going to lose this election.
We realize all these things but 1st of all you have demographics who don’t give a damn and are not voting Republican no matter what we do or think.
Next you have a lot of self guilty whites who think trump is a racist they are all around us.
Finally, you have uninformed and uninvolved people who just vote based on the general idea of what they think is going on. And right now things aren’t going very well.
Plus in my humble opinion the Trump campaign is really screwing up. Trump knows what he has to do and hes doing it in his speeches but they are not doing it with the campaign effort.
He better fire this campaign manager, like yesterday.
It will be too late to go negative at the end, and it’s just about too late now. Because late negative ads are dismissed as desperate.
As others have written, it's not the nation-wide polls, but the individual states won that matter. Also, as others have pointed out, there is a significant silent Trump support that absolutely can't wait to cast their vote for him. But, there is also no doubt that the fraud factor is going to be huge for the Dems. Let's hope R enthusiasm in the right states can overcome fraudulent thumb on the scale for the D's.
Lord, help us.
The above link is to the latest Survey USA poll out of North Carolina which shows a 47/47 tie between Trump/Biden. The most interesting nugget in the poll is where the pollster breaks down the numbers based on HOW LIKELY THAT PERSON WILL ACTUALLY VOTE. For those polled who said they were 100% CERTAIN TO VOTE, 83% are Republicans and 71% are Democrats and 74% independents. When they combined the 100% certain people with the “almost certain to vote” people, its 94%R/91%D/86%I. Bottom line: There is a major enthusiasm gap between Rs and Ds in this North Carolina poll. Biden is not exciting the 20/30 something base at all.
Trump is poised to lose AZ because of these negative attacks. They are working.
I’m not throwing in any towel. The new Trump campaign leader is an idiot. He went dark on tv when Biden went big and was defining the candidates. You can’t do that in late summer. I’m not the only one concerned the rest of the GOP went ballistic.
It is true Trump has a great ground game but he abandoned ads to pay for the ground game.
“The debates will be decisive.”
There will be no debates. Mark my words.
They are scheduled for the last minute: Sep. 29, Oct. 7, 15, & 22. Joe Biden will test positive for COVID on the 29th. Thus he will be quarantined for the first 3 debates. He will develop symptoms, and thus be unable to attend the debate on the 22nd. His symptoms will clear a couple of days after that.
Correct. We can’t win on the defensive, no one can. We should have been defining Biden negatively.
Yes. It certainly looks like it.
Thank you worthless brain dead POS “Americans” for destroying our country.
My daughter will never know what true freedom is.
God I really HATE the majority of people in this country.
the rest of the country is not North Carolina. It’s pretty obvious we’re losing Pennsylvania.
They are being run nationwide as well, unanswered, on networks like MeTV - which likely have a higher senior viewership. It’s not good to cede territory to an opponent.
Larry, not sure if nwrep is a concern-troll or if he’s accurate — he sure posts a ton of depressing stuff about the upcoming election — but what do you think of this?
I read the logic of this new campaign director. The old team was counting on a lot of small donations coming in at the end just like happened last time. This guy decided that might not happen so he cut back all the ads and put the money into the ground game.
Other GOP candidates went ballistic over this. We have a campaign that has fallen down because someone came in claiming the finances weren’t strong enough and they had to cut back during the most vital period Which is late summer, when many a campaign has fallen behind by being defined by the opposition.
Exactly, you can almost count the number of anti-Trump Republicans on one hand -- let's see, Bushes, Romneys, Mccains, Flakes, any more?
And of course, bureaucrats seeking employment in a potential Biden administration...
Everyone else, including a lot Democrats, are wildly enthusiastic.
The only enthusiasm in Democrats I see is for burning down their own cities.
How is this even close?
Biden was campaigning in Pennsylvania just last week. He is not ahead.
Go try to find a single poll that showed Trump ahead of Hillary there. There were none. You are drinking too much MSM kool aid.
Trump was in much worse shape 4 years ago than he is now.
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