Posted on 09/15/2020 6:43:32 AM PDT by nwrep
Note: This is a poll by Scott Rasmussen, separate from and not aligned with Rasmussen Reports. The poll uses a highly optimistic turnout model assuming a 36-37 R-D split, which is the most favorable Republican model of any pollsters, assuming near parity with Dems.
The key findings:
Out of 941 likely voters polled, 48% said they would vote for Biden, while 43% would choose Trump. The president has lost one percentage point since a similar poll roughly two weeks ago, while Biden's share of the likely vote has remained the same.
"GOP voters seem more engaged and more likely to turn out. However, Biden has a bigger lead within his party (82 points) than Trump does in his (75 points). Biden has a modest lead among Independents."
The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Rasmussen using a mixed-mode approach from September 10-12. The sample included 941 Likely Voters, defined as those who say they are “definitely going to vote” or “very likely to vote” and who know how they will vote. The Likely Voter sample was 36% Republican, 37% Democrat and 27% Independent.
Yeah, I don’t buy the ‘lack of enthusiasm’ he has among the R’s.
I wish he could knock down the Woodward scam.
Yeah. Bullflop.
It’s over.
National polls ignore that electoral college not “national popular vote” wins the election.
Enthusiasm gets people to the polls. With mail out - mail in ballots, lazy effers don’t even need to do that.
Darn another four years of Hillary.
Most people who are Trump supporters hang up on pollsters, even Rasmussen. So I do not know how worrysome this should actually be. Hopefully it will convince the Democrats not to bother cheating as much as they would if they believed the race was tighter.
When Trump is able to turn out huge enthusiastic crouds even with this coronavirus nonsense still puting a damper on things... and Biden is lucky to get a couple dozen people to show when he leaves his basement, tha syas more about the enthusiasm level than these polls do.
What happens if you move the 6% “not sure” Trump hidden voters to Trump’s column?
Hard to do that when it is on tape.
Nobody asked me
Too bad he wasn’t around in 2016; then we could see how his polling model fared.
They are running some real sleazy low ball ads against Trump here in Florida.
There is still a 5-15% “hidden” vote for Trump. People don’t want to be branded a racist or be doxxed (which can lead to job loss, violence against property or person, or government retribution in blue cities/states) for saying that they are voting for Trump. I also suspect that there are more Republicans out there than are being polled because of this same phenomena.
Meanwhile Biden and the Dems get free ads during sporting events, also gets to run their ads during commercials for said events for dirt cheap (but Trump and Republicans are excluded).
In 60 years of voting, I was never polled. One of my neighbors has a Biden sign out with “Honk Twice if you voting for Biden”. Its been quiet here.
Personally, I think Trump will lose, but on the other hand, none of these polls comport with the difference between a Trump rally and a Biden ‘rally’. Biden is supposedly destroying Trump in the polls but only 5 media people show up to cover it, with zero ‘fans’?
Trump voters also are not likely to participate in polls. If I see a number I don’t recognize, I don’t answer it.
Good point. This election will once and for all decide the importance of "enthusiastic crowds" in big rallies vs polls. The divide in that respect between Biden and Trump could not be starker. If Biden still wins despite this, we should all agree that big crowds are not the ultimate indicator like some here believe them to be.
Approval rating 95% in Republican Party by Rasmussen in it’s daily rating poll. Big difference between 75% and 95%?
They need to make up their minds.
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