Posted on 09/15/2020 6:43:32 AM PDT by nwrep
Note: This is a poll by Scott Rasmussen, separate from and not aligned with Rasmussen Reports. The poll uses a highly optimistic turnout model assuming a 36-37 R-D split, which is the most favorable Republican model of any pollsters, assuming near parity with Dems.
The key findings:
Out of 941 likely voters polled, 48% said they would vote for Biden, while 43% would choose Trump. The president has lost one percentage point since a similar poll roughly two weeks ago, while Biden's share of the likely vote has remained the same.
"GOP voters seem more engaged and more likely to turn out. However, Biden has a bigger lead within his party (82 points) than Trump does in his (75 points). Biden has a modest lead among Independents."
The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Rasmussen using a mixed-mode approach from September 10-12. The sample included 941 Likely Voters, defined as those who say they are “definitely going to vote” or “very likely to vote” and who know how they will vote. The Likely Voter sample was 36% Republican, 37% Democrat and 27% Independent.
Some people are so lazy that they can't even be bothered to drop something in the mail. It's the reason they're on welfare. So that might work in our favor.
I would agree if it were not a poll by such a pro-Trump cheerleader.
Polls are crap. Don’t believe any of them. They are financed by people who want to show that “people” agree with them. In business, we call them ‘yes’ men. The pollsters make their money by selling their “yes man” comments to the purchaser.
You have to look at the nonrespondents.
Let’s make it clear, statistics in polls are divided into two groups:
1. Respondents
2. Non-respondents
The non-respondents ALWAYS outnumber respondents in political polls.
If it’s a robocall, most people hang up or don’t answer.
If it’s an internet ad, most viewers will scroll or click past.
The question becomes how many Ds and Rs were in the non-response group?
Example:
Robocall is programmed to get 36 Rs to every 37 Ds.
First question asks or database reveals whether respondent voted last election. A yes answer makes respondent a ‘likely voter’.
Robocall calls 50 Ds and gets 37 to respond that are likely voters.
Robocall calls 200 Rs and gets 36 to respond that are likely voters.
Can you see how this can skew things?
Polls these days are almost always wrong and those lucky enough to be right are that way because of luck. A poll that was right is held up to influence your vote like a lottery winner would be held up to give you financial advice.
There is a nice bit of theoretical statistics that adjusts surveys for non-response but political pollsters are too dumb to know how to code it let alone explain it.
Political pollsters are almost always rejects from graduate programs in statistics. They couldn’t gain acceptance or if somehow they did, they didn’t have the right stuff to stay in.
Statistical Science is hard and compared to other sciences it is enormously difficult to master.
Political pollsters are like nerds with short skirts and fishnet stockings winking at you for a little side action. They are scummy but will find customers in politics, of course. Scum meet scum.
“No one wants to hear it but we’re behind”
That’s only your opinion, nothing else.
Polls are manipulation tools for the Democrats and always have been.
Truth is no one knows what is going to happen in November. The dems wouldn’t be ramping up the cheating machine so much if they were confident.
After the election we’re going to remain a very divided country no matter who wins. (unfortunately).
The Dornslife Daybreak poll is the one most troubling to me. It is a poll that follows a group daily to get their reactions to the election. In 2016 it was one of the few polls that showed a hidden Trump support that others were missing. It actually had Trump ahead of Hillary just before the election. This time Trump’s support just does not seem to get above 43% while Biden stays consistently above 50%. Now it is still early but not the same as 2016. Mail in ballots will start being returned in a few weeks and the pool of available undecideds will get much smaller by actual Election Day. I wish Trump would push a more positive, “we’re all in this together” narrative that would encourage undecideds to get on board the Trump train. From looking at some of these focus groups in Mich ect. More than one undecided was asking candidates to give them a positive reason to vote for them instead of voting against someone.
Also, Trump’s pollster was on FBN this morning and was all smiles.
He said we are on OFFENSE. He is currently on the ground in Minnesota, and guess where sleepy Joe is going this week.
Yep—Minnesota—a state Sleepy Joe should have locked up.
Yes the economy is important and they’re buying tv now with ads on the economy. But they’ve allowed Biden to escape from a lot of negatives, especially corruption with Hunter. Meanwhile Biden is totally negative against Trump, with the tiniest veneer of positive.
Trump leads Biden on the economy in every single poll out there
That could be the hidden Trump vote, if it is Trump wins
Negative ads don’t always work, in some cases it turn people off the candidate. Right now there is too much negativity.
Trump should run positive ads of what he has accomplished and not even mention Basement Joe
I finally got polled, on a berkely poll. I think their monitor caught on fire when they entered my responses.
Except when they are done by pro-Trump cheerleaders like Scott.
McSally lost her race in Arizona because older, upper-income women refused to vote for her. I’m worried that older Republican women will do the same to Trump because of the COVID-Monster. And because they want their grandkids to approve of them.
Hope I’m wrong. Everyone in MY family - including the older women - are fired up to vote for Trump.
Trump is really in trouble this time!
It’s all over for him now!
So ask yourself, is there one side that is trying to intimidate the other to go along with them in this cycle? And which side is it?
The answers are so obvious the questions seem silly in this cycle.
Negative heads not only work they are absolutely necessary. You aren’t winning this election with a positive ad about the economy.
Trump will WIN in a LANDSLIDE on Nov 3rd.
In the last 26 Presidential elections Mr. Norpoth has predicted the WINNER CORRECTLY 24 TIMES.
Donald Trump was the underdog in 2016, yet he CRUSHED Hillary Clinton in the electoral college.
Now, while many Democrats may believe that Biden will beat Trump in November, Professor Helmut Norpoth suggests that that is a false sense of security.
Professor Norpoth correctly predicted the 2016 presidential election, even as the polls appeared to suggest that Trump would lose to Hillary Clinton.
Norpoth, a political science professor who went viral for his TED Talk "How to Predict Elections," gives President Trump a 91% chance of being reelected.
NINETY-ONE-PERCENT!
We love those odds!
Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump will receive 362 electoral votes.
Only 270 is needed to win the White House.
Scared people don’t vote for the current administration.
now they have completely fallen down on the Woodward thing.
Nobody cares about that hack
And in two weeks nobody will care about it
Just like nobody cares about the Atlantic Hit piece today
And nobody cares about Nancy’s haircut hypocrisy
You are mistaken people do care about it because biden turned those stories into massive negative ad campaigns.
Scared people don’t vote for the current administration.
That is exactly what the Democrats are banking on
But it has been back firing since people are realizing that all the riots are taking place in democrat strong holds by leftists who don’t want to enforce the laws
Suppression polls! YOU ARE BEING SUPPRESSED!
How could ANYONE believe that creepy, basement dwelling, pervert Joe Biden could beat the best president since George Washington?
Trump’s accomplishments in office are TREMENDOUS!
FORGET POLLS! THEY LIE!
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