Posted on 09/10/2020 7:08:33 AM PDT by Red Badger
Nate Silver was the only Lefty pollster who gave a Trump chance in 2016.
NATE SILVER — “If you take the polls at face value right now—with Biden gaining/holding steady in AZ, WI, MI but losing ground in PA & FL, then Arizona is the tipping-point state right now, which could lead to the map shown here. This is a winning map for Biden, but it’s precarious.”
His 2 EV margin on this does seem to be sort of a Hail Mary morale booster to Dem voters.
Can we really lose Arizona?
I’d take it. If Trump gets between 270-300 Electoral Votes, you’ll see Democrats pulling every trick to sabotage the election. If he gets 300 or more, I think they may decide it’s no use.
Agree. This is all about ballot harvesting after the actual vote day.. The Dems will know what they need to make up, and the MSM will do everything they can to paint the Trump denying voters their rights....
Weasel Roberts too chicken to state the only mail votes that will be counted are certified absentee ballots.....
Case closed
The only hope may be with casinos closed, they can’t get all the workers together to tell them how to vote.
My other guess is Virginia is light blue, which still puts Trump at 335.
Nebraska gives electoral votes by congressional district, and the district around Omaha has voted Democrat sometimes, even as the state as a whole votes strongly Republican.
Great insight there!!
I don’t think so.
But it will be a fight to the finish!..................
I just checked and Trump only won the 2nd District by two points (47-45).
However, he won the 1st District by 65-36 margin and the 3rd District by a whopping 74-20 margin. Hence the statewide 25 point win (58-33).
Let's hope Omaha comes through for us again this year and by a wider margin.
The Omaha based congressional district could go Democrat, but I do not believe that it will. I’d probably make the Maine-2 Democrat before NE-2.
I tend to agree but I think there may be a surprise in the NE with NJ or NY going red
Really hoping John James wins the election in MI as we need people like him to expand the party but in the right way.
If that map represents Democrat thinking, then Trump wins in Nov.
There is zero chance Biden sweeps the upper mid-west.
The corruption will be massive. The blacks will be doing the cheating in Detoilet and Philly. Any criticism of the electoral process will be met with charges of rascism. I have a hard time seeing Roberts being supportive of POTUS here but who knows.
Someone around here, Florida Panhandle, went around spray painting big red X’s on Trump signs last weekend.................
Of course, some of that would be offset by Dems picking up some EVs in typically deep red states. Such as Austin, TX for example.
Overall though, I think the GOP would do much better in that format as indicated by map below.
AZ will go Trump.
My son was traveling through southern Virginia last week and saw many Trump signs. I asked about Biden signs and he only saw one bumper sticker.
You guys need to give up on NV, and Virginia.
Virginia is gone forever, too many big government deep staters who get paid more when government has more power. They are voting Blue.
We just need to focus on the same strategy as last time. Win the Rust Belt, PA, OH, Mich. and with FL thrown in, easy win.
New York (overall) is a liberal sh!t-hole simply because most of its population live in its 5-6 largest metro areas.
New Jersey is already a deep "Blue" state, and is only going to get MORE liberal as thousands of New Yorkers flee from NYC and move there ... replacing New Jersey voters who are fleeing that sh!t-hole themselves.
There is, however, some good news:
The out-migration from New York and New Jersey to OTHER states tends to be among the most conservative residents of these two states. I am convinced that this is one of the big reasons why neighboring Pennsylvania is more "Red" today than it was ten years ago.
I’ve seen analyses like that for several presidential elections in recent decades. If I remember them correctly, the net result if the entire country were changed from a winner-take-all system to a House-district model like Maine and Nebraska would almost always be inconsequential. For every EV the Republicans would pick up in California or New York, they’d lose one in Texas or Florida.
Hillary won VA by 200,000 votes. I don’t think that’s easy to overcome. Hope is that 2,000,000 didn’t vote last time and another 200,000 voted 3rd party. It would take a good ground game to win.
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