Posted on 10/29/2016 5:01:19 AM PDT by Helicondelta
It’s a tale of two electorates in the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, with shifts in intended turnout moving a large advantage for Hillary Clinton a week ago to a far tighter 2016 presidential race today.
From a 50-38 percent Clinton lead over Donald Trump in the tracking poll’s first four days, Oct. 20-23, it’s a 47-45 percent contest in the latest results. The movement has been in Trump’s favor, +7, while the -3 in Clinton’s support is not significant
Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
No way Hillary gets close to that turnout even with stealing votes. I think the Dems are already thinking ahead to 2020.
Somehow I think that using their own polls to determine party affiliation is like asking twice which candidate they support.
They can use current registrations, or they can use party affiliation recent history, or they can poll and ask which party the respondent identifies with.
The poll method seems to me to be weighting the poll by their own polling. I’m not sure how sound that is.
Found a number of Reagan articles and this in one of them...
....a Gallup poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed....
I’ll have a tv on in the background the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November... first I’ll feel better when fla comes to trump. Better still when nc does too. Then Va. if it goes Trump I’m opening the glenfiddich. Ohio, Pennsylvania then Michigan
Yet now we are being told that this year, the turnout will somehow be Dem +8, that even more Democrats will turn out for Crooked Hillary than for Obama? (And even then, she can only hold a two point lead)
I think they are smoking weed.
Also, they are predicting a turnout mix of 39-27-27 (Dem, GOP, Ind). How did this even compare to 2012 actuals? Well according to this the turnout in 2012 was 38-32-29 (Dem, GOP, Ind).
So in essence, the pro-Dem pollsters are trying to get us to swallow the following:
That Democrat turnout (as a percentage) will INCREASE
That GOP turnout will DECREASE
That IND turnout will DECREASE
This poll is utter garbage.
Right. Blacks and millenials are going to have lines around buildings like they did for Obama who was +6.they are not including all the new voters who registered just yo vote Trump. All the republicans and dems who switched to independent.
Yeah right ABC, the electorate changed in a week. What really happened is that ABC made a push poll to support their criminal candidate.
A reasonable poll would be no more he. d+4. Sorry but R+1 for a national poll is completely unrealistic.
Registration differences are roughly R 28 D 32. Even if you wind up with high R and Depessed D from those numbers nationally you aren’t going to get a 5 point swing.
Funny. Weighting the sample heavily in favor of Democrats is no longer enough to boost Hillary’s numbers to show a commanding lead.
Soon, the MSM is going to have to drop the Republican sample completely to show Hillary ahead.
[....a Gallup poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed....]
What a night that was. My first time voting in an election. Graduated HS that year.
I wasn’t trying to but rather needed a springboard to address too much pessimism in our midst.
Turnout in 2008 was D +4.6.
Turnout in 2012 was D +1.6.
ALL the polls are using a bad turnout model, some worse than others.
I think ABC should be investigated after the election for knowing publishing false information to fix the outcome of an election.
Dem +8 AFTER adjustments. Collusion with the media is out front naked to anyone with eyes this election cycle. The 11 point lead never existed, they just put it out there to help Hillary and demoralize Trump supporters. Even now, they make it a horse race, but how do we begin to even give the same poll any credibility?
Polls?!!! We don’t need no steenkeen’ polls! Unless they’re on Nov. 8th! They’s the ones that count!
Would love to wake up to that on Nov. 9th!
“-3 in Clinton’s support is not significant”
Umm OK, whatever you say ABC. Shift 3 percent from Obongo to Mittens, and it’s Willard going up against Canckles for a second Term come Nov. 8
Your citation conflicted with others I have read, so I went to look at the report.
You are misreading the numbers on page 6. That is not a measurement of party ID.
That is the percentage of eligible voters that voted for the Democrat or Republican candidate.
THIS is the party ID breakdown, over the past couple of decades:
The selection of “independents” is the greatest area for abuse. Corrupt enemedia organizations will typically put Dems in place of “independents”.
The polls are intende to do two things: discourage Trump voters, and provide a cover for voter and election fraud by Dems. That’s it.
Now that we have seen collusion between media and Hitlery via wiki leaks etc, the corrupt media needs to be investigated for collusion and conspiracy to commit election fraud.
Why does everyone think that they are “over-sampling” democRATS? There are more registered D’s then R’s.... that said.... this coming Wednesday/Thursday poll numbers will tell a better story.... its still a Trump longshot, because democrats cheat.
-Turnout in 2008 was D +4.6.
Turnout in 2012 was D +1.6.
You are misreading that pdf. That is % of Party turnout, not % of Electorate.
Dems had a +6% in share of electorate.
http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/
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