Posted on 10/29/2016 5:01:19 AM PDT by Helicondelta
It’s a tale of two electorates in the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, with shifts in intended turnout moving a large advantage for Hillary Clinton a week ago to a far tighter 2016 presidential race today.
From a 50-38 percent Clinton lead over Donald Trump in the tracking poll’s first four days, Oct. 20-23, it’s a 47-45 percent contest in the latest results. The movement has been in Trump’s favor, +7, while the -3 in Clinton’s support is not significant
Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
A Dem +8 is unrealistic.
They should weight as Rep +1
Funny Hillary ( even before FBI mess) has been moving North to defend Blue States as has DJT
Trump went from a 6-point deficit to a 16-point advantage among independents in less than a week. Hillary is toast.
‘They’re shifting, Mortimer.’
What is going on? Hillary takes a clear lead in the IBD/TIPP poll but has now essentially fallen to a dead heat with Trump in the ABC poll - whereas a week ago, she was trailing in the IBD/TIPP poll while up by 12 in this ABC poll at the same time...the 12 point lead poll she tumbles in and strengthens in the poll she was previously trailing in over the identical polling period.
Bizarre stuff going on. Of course no data yet since the latest scandal outbreak...
+D?
Assuming much more D enthusiasm than 2008.
With Trump’s 16-point advantage with Independents, the overall weighting should be closer to R+5...at least.
What is going on? Hillary takes a clear lead in the IBD/TIPP poll but has now essentially fallen to a dead heat with Trump in the ABC poll - whereas a week ago, she was trailing in the IBD/TIPP poll while up by 12 in this ABC poll at the same time...the 12 point lead poll she tumbles in and strengthens in the poll she was previously trailing in over the identical polling period.
Bizarre stuff going on. Of course no data yet since the latest scandal outbreak...
....
It’s called, she never was in the lead.
Trust what you do not see.
lets hope they keep showing these polls with Trump a few points behind- it will make election night even sweeter...
spit & LOL
After all we've seen, if this country is actually D+8, it deserves to burn !
And this is the poll that the MSM was touting last week with hillary leading 50-38. They were all high-fiving and chanting, the race is over!
Now look at it. Hillary is collapsing and Trump is surging. The +8 for dems is not realistic at all.....and this comes before the FBI reopening the email case!
Get more popcorn!
The dem/rep/indie way of looking at the electorate is no longer in focus. Using party affiliation to weight samples is like using snail-mail posted letters to millennials to do a poll.
A yuuuge chunk of indie is repubs who quit the Repub party. Those disaffected former repubs will vote 98% Trump. Hence the indie weight should be far heavier to Trump. How much?.... Trump advantage.
A significant portion of Dems will vote Trump. The assumption is that Hellery gets 92% of them... that assumption should be challenged a la Reagan vs Carter. How much?.... Trump advantage.
Last, a portion of rhinos that haven’t switched to dem yet are still in the Repub sample. So Trump may pull less that 92% of repubs. How much?
Three big realignments without a single article AFAIK. Seems like a grande realignment as such would make an interesting read. At a minimum we’ll get some great books on this election cycle after the Trumpslide!
With all due respect, you did not respond to what I said.
+8 D is absurd. 2012 was + 6.
The IBD / TIPP poll will probably now get renewed credibility with the MSM and be widely reported and the ABC poll will now be reported less...at least for today.
TRump/Pence by 311+ el votes.
Didn't even read that the first time...LOL - amazing how they try to spin that as a positive. No, going down 3 wouldn't be significant if it were stand alone...but not when the opposing number is +7. That's a 10 point swing and they try to make it out like it is no big deal.
There is another thread showing the Reagan poll trajectory from 1980 and Trump is following the exact same path. Republicans are coming home and there is a huge shift in his favor among independents.
There are more D’s than R’s in the country, AFAIK.
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