What is going on? Hillary takes a clear lead in the IBD/TIPP poll but has now essentially fallen to a dead heat with Trump in the ABC poll - whereas a week ago, she was trailing in the IBD/TIPP poll while up by 12 in this ABC poll at the same time...the 12 point lead poll she tumbles in and strengthens in the poll she was previously trailing in over the identical polling period.
Bizarre stuff going on. Of course no data yet since the latest scandal outbreak...
What is going on? Hillary takes a clear lead in the IBD/TIPP poll but has now essentially fallen to a dead heat with Trump in the ABC poll - whereas a week ago, she was trailing in the IBD/TIPP poll while up by 12 in this ABC poll at the same time...the 12 point lead poll she tumbles in and strengthens in the poll she was previously trailing in over the identical polling period.
Bizarre stuff going on. Of course no data yet since the latest scandal outbreak...
....
It’s called, she never was in the lead.
Trust what you do not see.
+8 D is absurd. 2012 was + 6.
What’s going on?
Two things.
Pollsters are adopting realistic turn-out models as we near the finish line.
Republicans are coming home.
However, these latest revelations on Clintonmail will be the catalyst of a wholesale shift that pollsters won’t be able to pick up and we won’t see until Nov 8th:
Vast swaths of the Dem coalition will stay home, demoralized. While Trump supporters and Republicans turn out in historic numbers.
I have NEVER been an advocate for the Trump landslide theory, until now. He’ll win every battleground state and dent some blue states to win at least 40.
I just hope the new Trump ads show up today...”Under FBI investigation for violations of the espionage act”. Of course they need to fit in reference to Weiner and dickpics, Carlos Danger, Huma and Muslim Brotherhood...ending with the question: Did Huma forward classified info to the MB?
Polls may be showing reality now in order to:
- save their reputations
- legitimately utilize unknown patterns when they were far from the election
Or they are still fudging to motivate Hillary's base. 2012 has D-38 R-32 I-29 - Seriously think D won't decrease this year? And how many minority and women are polled?
In any case, the news yesterday makes no poll close to accurate til this Tuesday.
The polls for public consumption are absolute crap. They’re propaganda tools. Both campaigns have internal polls...polls that are more realistic and you know that the internals show the truth...that Trump is way up.
IBD keeps re-weighting the polls more and more away from their internal poll (eg: Raw #s have Trump up about 4, but they take 5 points off R votes and add 5 points to D votes for a 10 pt swing). I’m guessing it is the herd effect.
The ABC poll last week showed Clinton at +12% also showed her leading among MEN by 3%! What a complete joke. That is all you need to know that it was a total fraud.
Trump will win white men by 30%, union men by 20%. And he’ll get almost 25% of black men and 30% of hispanic men.
How many men were turned off by the “scandals” they threw at Trump? Not many, I believe.
“What is going on? Hillary takes a clear lead in the IBD/TIPP poll but has now essentially fallen to a dead heat with Trump in the ABC poll - whereas a week ago, she was trailing in the IBD/TIPP poll while up by 12 in this ABC poll at the same time...the 12 point lead poll she tumbles in and strengthens in the poll she was previously trailing in over the identical polling period.”
What’s going on? SOME fake polls are being fakely “tightened”, that’s what’s going on.