Posted on 10/29/2016 5:01:19 AM PDT by Helicondelta
It’s a tale of two electorates in the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, with shifts in intended turnout moving a large advantage for Hillary Clinton a week ago to a far tighter 2016 presidential race today.
From a 50-38 percent Clinton lead over Donald Trump in the tracking poll’s first four days, Oct. 20-23, it’s a 47-45 percent contest in the latest results. The movement has been in Trump’s favor, +7, while the -3 in Clinton’s support is not significant
Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
Yes, Electorate was +6% Dem in 2012. Probably about the same this time.
-“-3 in Clinton’s support is not significant”-
It is not statistically significant in a textbook sense, but it does mean there are better chances than not that her support has dropped
They are trying to save their reputations by slowly getting closer to reality. By 7 Nov they’ll be showing “a dead heat” and be “shocked” that It didn’t go they way they tried to manipulate it..
every election we are told independents make the final decision , and yet Trump is winning with them , and not a peep form the media about independents this year.
When Trump wins the media will demonize Comey and the FBI for throwing the election to Trump. When Crooked goes down, it will all be Trump jailing a political opponent. Expect riots.
What’s going on?
Two things.
Pollsters are adopting realistic turn-out models as we near the finish line.
Republicans are coming home.
However, these latest revelations on Clintonmail will be the catalyst of a wholesale shift that pollsters won’t be able to pick up and we won’t see until Nov 8th:
Vast swaths of the Dem coalition will stay home, demoralized. While Trump supporters and Republicans turn out in historic numbers.
I have NEVER been an advocate for the Trump landslide theory, until now. He’ll win every battleground state and dent some blue states to win at least 40.
I just hope the new Trump ads show up today...”Under FBI investigation for violations of the espionage act”. Of course they need to fit in reference to Weiner and dickpics, Carlos Danger, Huma and Muslim Brotherhood...ending with the question: Did Huma forward classified info to the MB?
Wikileaks has released emails where instructions were given to pollsters to oversample Democrats.
Polls may be showing reality now in order to:
- save their reputations
- legitimately utilize unknown patterns when they were far from the election
Or they are still fudging to motivate Hillary's base. 2012 has D-38 R-32 I-29 - Seriously think D won't decrease this year? And how many minority and women are polled?
In any case, the news yesterday makes no poll close to accurate til this Tuesday.
Good times.....
That’s a technical term, meaning that her -3% performance is within the margin of error, which is usually 4%. Still, the way it was phrased sounded off, like an excuse or minimizing.
I heard a pollster try to explain why they always oversample democrats, which was because (according to him), Democrats vote in larger number than Republicans. If I actually believed that, which I do not, I’d have to interject that in THIS election, Republicans, Independents, and even some Democrats are energized by Trump and are eager to vote for him! Flip that over sampling to reflect the actual pattern of voters this time, pollsters! Or at the very least, don’t oversample EITHER party!
“Also, they are predicting a turnout mix of 39-27-27 (Dem, GOP, Ind). How did this even compare to 2012 actuals? Well according to this the turnout in 2012 was 38-32-29 (Dem, GOP, Ind).”
Thanks for the 2012 data. Amazing they think Hillary will generate more turnout than Obama, while Trump will generate less than Romney. The size of Trump’s rallies show otherwise.
Confucius say...One picture worth 1,000 words.
common core math. Throw out all numbers less than 5, lol
They should weight as Rep +1
R+1 is almost as unrealistic as D+8. Being somewhat optimistic, pick D+3. That would flip Hillary+2 to Trump+2 in this poll (assume an 80% spread of in-party voting). That doesn't even account for all of the other biases built into this poll (hidden).
It will be a miracle if Clinton gets D+2. D+8 is California dreaming.
How do they oversample so many Democrats and have the balls to say this is an accurate snapshot?
The polls for public consumption are absolute crap. They’re propaganda tools. Both campaigns have internal polls...polls that are more realistic and you know that the internals show the truth...that Trump is way up.
I saw that.... but that doesn’t mean that every single poll is over-sampling...at least to the point beyond the difference of registered D’s and R’s.... there is anywhere between 6% to 11% difference in actual registration depending on who does the counting..... don’t get me wrong.... hoping all of this benefits Trump...but I still think its going to be very tough for Trump to win.... too many unforced errors, dems are really good cheaters... listening to story after story of vote rigging, machines switching votes.... The political ruling class, the bureaucratic machine and the liberal media does NOT want Trump and I truly believe they will pull out all the stops to make sure he doesn’t win.
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