A Dem +8 is unrealistic.
They should weight as Rep +1
Trump went from a 6-point deficit to a 16-point advantage among independents in less than a week. Hillary is toast.
+D?
Assuming much more D enthusiasm than 2008.
The dem/rep/indie way of looking at the electorate is no longer in focus. Using party affiliation to weight samples is like using snail-mail posted letters to millennials to do a poll.
A yuuuge chunk of indie is repubs who quit the Repub party. Those disaffected former repubs will vote 98% Trump. Hence the indie weight should be far heavier to Trump. How much?.... Trump advantage.
A significant portion of Dems will vote Trump. The assumption is that Hellery gets 92% of them... that assumption should be challenged a la Reagan vs Carter. How much?.... Trump advantage.
Last, a portion of rhinos that haven’t switched to dem yet are still in the Repub sample. So Trump may pull less that 92% of repubs. How much?
Three big realignments without a single article AFAIK. Seems like a grande realignment as such would make an interesting read. At a minimum we’ll get some great books on this election cycle after the Trumpslide!
There are more D’s than R’s in the country, AFAIK.
Somehow I think that using their own polls to determine party affiliation is like asking twice which candidate they support.
They can use current registrations, or they can use party affiliation recent history, or they can poll and ask which party the respondent identifies with.
The poll method seems to me to be weighting the poll by their own polling. I’m not sure how sound that is.
A reasonable poll would be no more he. d+4. Sorry but R+1 for a national poll is completely unrealistic.
Registration differences are roughly R 28 D 32. Even if you wind up with high R and Depessed D from those numbers nationally you aren’t going to get a 5 point swing.
The selection of “independents” is the greatest area for abuse. Corrupt enemedia organizations will typically put Dems in place of “independents”.
The polls are intende to do two things: discourage Trump voters, and provide a cover for voter and election fraud by Dems. That’s it.
Now that we have seen collusion between media and Hitlery via wiki leaks etc, the corrupt media needs to be investigated for collusion and conspiracy to commit election fraud.
every election we are told independents make the final decision , and yet Trump is winning with them , and not a peep form the media about independents this year.
They should weight as Rep +1
R+1 is almost as unrealistic as D+8. Being somewhat optimistic, pick D+3. That would flip Hillary+2 to Trump+2 in this poll (assume an 80% spread of in-party voting). That doesn't even account for all of the other biases built into this poll (hidden).
How do they oversample so many Democrats and have the balls to say this is an accurate snapshot?
However, many, like me, have been coming home because we see the alternative in stark contrast. I may endure some of his populism if we can avoid a supreme court disaster, and many of his economic tax policies are very conservative.
Meantime, no one is enthused about Hillary on the other side. While this may not shift many Dems to Trump, it may make them sit out or vote Green party.
This new FBI probe will accelerate that phenomenon even more. Trump may win this by 5 percent.
If they said Dem +2 or 3, I’d believe them.
Has anyone done such an adjustment?