Posted on 10/29/2016 5:01:19 AM PDT by Helicondelta
It’s a tale of two electorates in the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, with shifts in intended turnout moving a large advantage for Hillary Clinton a week ago to a far tighter 2016 presidential race today.
From a 50-38 percent Clinton lead over Donald Trump in the tracking poll’s first four days, Oct. 20-23, it’s a 47-45 percent contest in the latest results. The movement has been in Trump’s favor, +7, while the -3 in Clinton’s support is not significant
Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
Also not factored in any of these polls - the people who have never voted, or will be voting for the first time in many years, because they are fired up for Trump. No idea how many that could be, but it could be significant.
As screwed up and crooked as everything else about the establishment in this election, why in the world would I think polls were not corrupt as well?
IBD keeps re-weighting the polls more and more away from their internal poll (eg: Raw #s have Trump up about 4, but they take 5 points off R votes and add 5 points to D votes for a 10 pt swing). I’m guessing it is the herd effect.
It’s possible. 2004 was +1R but that was without the nevertrumps.
Shift, my patootie!
The liberals were proven by WikiLeaks to have sent emails back and forth coordinating their lie that Trump was losing when he won their polls.
Just like in 1980 with Reagan vs Carter, they just don’t want to appear unreliable.
fake ABC poll fakely “tightening” ...
“Trump went from a 6-point deficit to a 16-point advantage among independents in less than a week”
According to the fake poll results; in reality, 22 point shifts don’t happen in a week without a BIG event of some kind.
The ABC poll last week showed Clinton at +12% also showed her leading among MEN by 3%! What a complete joke. That is all you need to know that it was a total fraud.
Trump will win white men by 30%, union men by 20%. And he’ll get almost 25% of black men and 30% of hispanic men.
How many men were turned off by the “scandals” they threw at Trump? Not many, I believe.
“What is going on? Hillary takes a clear lead in the IBD/TIPP poll but has now essentially fallen to a dead heat with Trump in the ABC poll - whereas a week ago, she was trailing in the IBD/TIPP poll while up by 12 in this ABC poll at the same time...the 12 point lead poll she tumbles in and strengthens in the poll she was previously trailing in over the identical polling period.”
What’s going on? SOME fake polls are being fakely “tightened”, that’s what’s going on.
The polling companies don’t make any money from these media polls. They are simply advertising for their commercial survey and (internal, campaign-paid) political polls. As much as the media sponsors might want to bias the result, the pollsters will pay a real financial price for being notably wrong. Of course, with the oscillations in sentiment, sensation and true uncertainty around turnout models (how many blacks turned out only for Obama, how many evangelicals didn’t turnout out for Mormon Romney but will turnout for casually irreligious Trump) pollsters have some good excuses to be wrong.
Which swing states (if any) don’t have early voting?
Trump may want to give up on Nevada and focus in those states.
Yep, Comey is the fig leaf for their failure to win a third consecutive term, just like the USSC “selected not elected” was,their fig leaf in 2000. Freaking scum enemedia/dnc axis. You know what though, I’m too old to give a Shiite anymore. Go Trump. MAGA!!!
Luntz is already bragging that their is a new Trump scandal to break next week. I’m praying it’s a nothing burger.
However, many, like me, have been coming home because we see the alternative in stark contrast. I may endure some of his populism if we can avoid a supreme court disaster, and many of his economic tax policies are very conservative.
Meantime, no one is enthused about Hillary on the other side. While this may not shift many Dems to Trump, it may make them sit out or vote Green party.
This new FBI probe will accelerate that phenomenon even more. Trump may win this by 5 percent.
If they said Dem +2 or 3, I’d believe them.
Has anyone done such an adjustment?
Wow Mariner, I could not be happier hearing that from you. You’ve been cautious throughout so the word “landslide” coming from you? Just wow... Cheers!
You’re right; I misread the pdf.
HAHAHAHAHAHA
If TRUMP is down 2 with a D+8 sample & not going up against Obama then it will be an easy night for TRUMP!!!!!
Party identification is fluid. Polls are not supposed to weight by party identification.
You know, and LS and several other poll-savvy FReepers know, this is the 10-day point for national pollsters to start dialing into the actual results lest they look like hobos...
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