Why does everyone think that they are “over-sampling” democRATS? There are more registered D’s then R’s.... that said.... this coming Wednesday/Thursday poll numbers will tell a better story.... its still a Trump longshot, because democrats cheat.
Yes, Electorate was +6% Dem in 2012. Probably about the same this time.
Wikileaks has released emails where instructions were given to pollsters to oversample Democrats.
Party identification is fluid. Polls are not supposed to weight by party identification.